EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Says the guy posting snow maps last few That was just for fun of course. Not like I believed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Flakes flying on campus! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 How about this storm: An early season snowfall hit the Mid-Atlantic region on November 6th, 1953. This storm brought 8.8" of snowfall to Philadelphia and is the only accumulating snowfall to hit Philadelphia on November 6th and is the largest single snowstorm in Philadelphia this early in the snow season and the second largest snowfall in November in Philadelphia all-time. Lock Haven, PA had 29.8" of snow from this storm, the largest amount of snow from this low pressure system. http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/11/november-1953-snowstorm.html Edit: On this date in Pennsylvania Weather History... Almost 30 inches of snow fell in Lock Haven, 17.5 in York and 8.8 in Philadelphia. (1953) For Harrisburg: by my count there have been 22 days with 3" (what I would consider as significant for this time of year) or more of snow in the past 125 years... last one occuring in 1995... so while it is rare we are a little overdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Don't forget about the good old DGEX! Screen Shot 2013-11-07 at 7.54.43 AM.png There would be mass suicide here if that happened, haha. But would you look at that, the latest DGEX shows a minor wave well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Boy Jamie, we called this one yesterday in the middle of Europalooza lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 I'm glad I kept tempered expectations on this storm potential but it seems we're probably not gonna line things up in the manner we need to get a wound up coastal on or near the coast. If we did it would probably look more like what the Euro looked like last night, and I know noone in here will want to see that happen haha. There's no blocking established for one and the the 12z GFS has really progressed the arrival of this cold air mass next week..now entering PA at 84 hours. I think helps coming with the teleconnections eventually but I don't see it being there for the timeframe of this possible coastal. I'll still entertain this coastal idea to a degree but I think a more realistic expectation for our area is having some kind of precip dealing with the arrival of the air mass be it overrunning or an arctic front, which is the kind of feature the GFS (and Canadian) have been showing. Speaking of the air mass, when's the last time we had a 1045mb high drop right into the US in November? Even though the cold shot will be progressive this looks to be a very impressive one considering we're only just arriving into mid November. A snow event would be one heck of a bonus considering where we were just a few days ago, looking at a zonal pattern with seasonable temps. November seems like a lost month when it comes to snowstorms for whatever reason, I can rattle off 3 or 4 PA snow events in October in probably the last 10 years but the last major November thing off the top of my head is the 1995 snowstorm, which was probably responsible for most of Harrisburg's 8.1" of snow that year for that month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Cold temperatures and probably a snow squall with the front and that's probably about it. I just want to see some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 A fresh breeze and some flurries flying outside right now, welcome back winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Squalls can be awesome what day are we talking fellas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 pretty good band of snow right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Boy Jamie, we called this one yesterday in the middle of Europalooza lol. Gotta know when to hold 'em and all that ****. I'm glad I kept tempered expectations on this storm potential but it seems we're probably not gonna line things up in the manner we need to get a wound up coastal on or near the coast. If we did it would probably look more like what the Euro looked like last night, and I know noone in here will want to see that happen haha. There's no blocking established for one and the the 12z GFS has really progressed the arrival of this cold air mass next week..now entering PA at 84 hours. I think helps coming with the teleconnections eventually but I don't see it being there for the timeframe of this possible coastal. I'll still entertain this coastal idea to a degree but I think a more realistic expectation for our area is having some kind of precip dealing with the arrival of the air mass be it overrunning or an arctic front, which is the kind of feature the GFS (and Canadian) have been showing. Speaking of the air mass, when's the last time we had a 1045mb high drop right into the US in November? Even though the cold shot will be progressive this looks to be a very impressive one considering we're only just arriving into mid November. A snow event would be one heck of a bonus considering where we were just a few days ago, looking at a zonal pattern with seasonable temps. November seems like a lost month when it comes to snowstorms for whatever reason, I can rattle off 3 or 4 PA snow events in October in probably the last 10 years but the last major November thing off the top of my head is the 1995 snowstorm, which was probably responsible for most of Harrisburg's 8.1" of snow that year for that month. Yeah, this is spot-on. I think you, myself, and maybe our Wiliamsport friend get our first accumulating snow but not all that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Man DT's all over the gfs like **** on velcro. **UPDATE ON NOV 13-14 POSSIBLE EVENT FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC *** the FRiday Midday or 12Z op GFS ( the regular or OPERATIONAL GFS) has NO event. 36 hrs ago it had huge event now it shows sunny skies from VA to BOS.SO NOTHING IS GOING TO HAPPEN?The fact that the Friday midday GFS model is taking the system way out to sea and showing absolutely no event of any kind ...is completely and totally meaningless. It was also JUST as meaningless three days ago and two days ago when the G FS are showing this early season monster snowstorm.Remember I was NOT the one hyping this event ... I am NOT ACCU wx and I am NOT TWC.For those of you who are not Weather Saavy it needs to be pointed out that with Hurricane sandy ..for example.. in late October 2012 it was the GFS model which repeatedly took the storm out to sea for days and days ... then slowly much and later than any other model ..turned Sandy to the coast. First the GFS showed a land fall in southeastern Massachusetts then in CT then in New York City and finally over Southern New Jersey. Yet 9 days out the European model consistently showed a land fall it on the NJ coast and the Canadian saw this trend consistently from six days out.It is long been MY opinion that the GFS is a seriously flawed model when it comes to East Coast weather systems in the time frame of 84 to 180 hrs. ..whether its a nor'easter or hurricane or just a coastal storm. The reason for this is that the G FS has a problem handling and detecting the southern portion of the Jetstream ( known in the weather business as the subtropical jet) . However to get a significant East Coast orme you have to have a merging or a "phasing" between the Polar jet and this Subtropical jet. So if you have a weather model which has a serious flaw or bias in that it cannot detect the subtropical jet it will almost always miss East Coast storms until you are only 2 or 3 days away.Indeed this exactly what the GFS does. It has a loooooooooong history of showing Low off the SC coast moving out to sea while other models show a BIG east coast Low.. in the en 84 to d 160 hour time frame. Then once you get within 84 hours suddenly the GFS gets a clue and suddenly everyone goes into panic model. r. That may be what is happening here. So let us wait and see what the afternoon European model shows a whether not w a're still looking at a major storm.finally the posting of the GFS ensemble to show or PROVE the op GFS is consistent with regard to East coast low is worthless. All of the GFS ensembles have the same problems the GFS has so throwing up piles of moose crap onto a bigger pile of moose crap does not change the Moose crap into a diamond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Man DT's all over the gfs like **** on velcro. DT sucks. He thought GFS sucked when had storm, then when Euro had it he believed the storm, now the GFS sucks cause it doesn't have the storm. DT is worthless. Euro hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Early next week a cold front will bring cold temperatures and maybe some snow showers. A coastal low is unlikely. Read all about it right here:http://www.hwpcwx.org/#!story1/c1ixq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 A serious flizzard happened about 30 minutes ago. Nice to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 had some brief rain/snow showers earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It would so funny if the models brought back the storm Sunday just a run or two because it would be so entertaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 It would so funny if the models brought back the storm Sunday just a run or two because it would be so entertaining. yea, in a sick kinda way. I've been in a meeting most all day. I had a text though that said we had a Flizzard over home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Man DT's all over the gfs like **** on velcro. And then the Euro went out to sea, haha. I'm sure there will be some kind of obscure excuse as to why the Euro didn't quite get there this run. Seriously though, I'm kind of proud of the Americanwx forum with this whole storm potential. No one really went bonkers about it. The Mid-Atlantic forum was the only one that made a storm thread for it and our thread and NYC's thread were the only others talking about this very much. Philly and New England went through the last two nights of Euro runs with no comments or updates during it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Why are my posts being deleted? There was nothing wrong about my last post where I was quoting DT when he called Eastern "a serious idiot" on fb the other day lol. It wasn't a serious attack. I think I'm being targeted or something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Why are my posts being deleted? There was nothing wrong about my last post where I was quoting DT when he called Eastern "a serious idiot" on fb the other day lol. It wasn't a serious attack. I think I'm being targeted or something... Ya he thought the GFS showing no storm looked like the Euro showing a massive storm. DT is only good at long range stuff not storm forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 This was the Euro on Nov 5th last year. Maybe it likes to troll for early Nov snowstorms? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 DT sucks. He thought GFS sucked when had storm, then when Euro had it he believed the storm, now the GFS sucks cause it doesn't have the storm. DT is worthless. Euro hugger. I saw that. When the "hype" started, DT made a FB post saying how it was absurd, the pattern didn't support it, etc. Once the Euro showed it, he was honking nearly as loud as the rest of them... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Just redesigned my website. Let me know what you all think. http://www.hwpcwx.org Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 9, 2013 Share Posted November 9, 2013 Got me up all night, all i’m watching is weather models Models got me up all night, constant dreaming of snowstorms Models got me up all night, shifting with each run Models got me up all night, drown it out with the euro Models got me up all night, constant dreaming of snowstorms Models got me up all night, shifting with each run Models got me up all night, got me crazy all night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 This was the Euro on Nov 5th last year. Maybe it likes to troll for early Nov snowstorms? lol I remember that storm here, the snow was the second to last thing we needed immediately after Sandy, when hundreds of thousands of people still had no heat or power. But the good thing was, a further left track would have brought the exact last thing, which was another storm surge and 60+ mph onshore winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Got quite in here quick. lol. Here is my latest story on the cold. http://www.hwpcwx.org/#!story1/c1ixq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 10, 2013 Share Posted November 10, 2013 Brrrrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 Brrrrrrr i think it was 50 yesterday, but it certainly didn't feel that way, with no sun and that wicked wind. i was splitting/stacking firewood and when i would stop for a beer break and a cigar, i'd get a lil chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 11, 2013 Share Posted November 11, 2013 i think it was 50 yesterday, but it certainly didn't feel that way, with no sun and that wicked wind. i was splitting/stacking firewood and when i would stop for a beer break and a cigar, i'd get a lil chilly. had plenty of sun at my house, but yeah once the front came through and winds picked up...holy cow was it cold outside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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