Central Pennsylvania Late Summer-Fall 2013

[Wmsptwx]

It's been very dry last few months out this way.

[JamieOber]

Bring it bitches:

 

THE CURRENT...MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM ABOUT 330 DEG /WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF -SHSN/ WILL BACK BY 20-30 DEGREES EARLY TONIGHT
CAUSING ENHANCEMENT AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SNOWBANDS THANKS TO A
BETTER/LONGER...310 DEG SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE
HURON AND LAKE ERIE. HI RES WRF ARW AND NMM INDICATE AN
INCREASE/FOCUS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS /WITH THE
TARGET AREA FOR A 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WESTERN WARREN
COUNTY...SE ACROSS CLEARFIELD COUNTY...TO PERHAPS JUST OFF THE
ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KAOO. THE OTHER PRIME LOCATION
FOR SNOW WILL BE THE TYPICAL HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY...ESP
WEST OF RT 219.

A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE FEW NARROW...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE
SNOWBANDS...COULD PICK UP 3 INCHES WITHIN JUST A FEW HOURS AS THE
BAND SLOWLY OSCILLATES/OR DRIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WITHIN MUCH OF THIS LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CLOUD
LAYER WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE...-12 TO -18C THERMAL RIBBON FOR
DENDRITIC GROWTH.

 

 

MAG and I FTW. 

[JamieOber]

Of course as we all know, anytime someone mentions something like this it never seems to happen. 

[2001kx]

Bring it bitches:

 

THE CURRENT...MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM ABOUT 330 DEG /WITH

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF -SHSN/ WILL BACK BY 20-30 DEGREES EARLY TONIGHT

CAUSING ENHANCEMENT AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SNOWBANDS THANKS TO A

BETTER/LONGER...310 DEG SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE

HURON AND LAKE ERIE. HI RES WRF ARW AND NMM INDICATE AN

INCREASE/FOCUS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS /WITH THE

TARGET AREA FOR A 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WESTERN WARREN

COUNTY...SE ACROSS CLEARFIELD COUNTY...TO PERHAPS JUST OFF THE

ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KAOO. THE OTHER PRIME LOCATION

FOR SNOW WILL BE THE TYPICAL HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY...ESP

WEST OF RT 219.

A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE FEW NARROW...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE

SNOWBANDS...COULD PICK UP 3 INCHES WITHIN JUST A FEW HOURS AS THE

BAND SLOWLY OSCILLATES/OR DRIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WITHIN MUCH OF THIS LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CLOUD

LAYER WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE...-12 TO -18C THERMAL RIBBON FOR

DENDRITIC GROWTH.

 

 

MAG and I FTW. 

I like the sounds of that..

[JamieOber]

I like the sounds of that..

Ha, you too. We'll see what happens. 

[MAG5035]

Bring it bitches:

 

THE CURRENT...MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW FROM ABOUT 330 DEG /WITH

LITTLE IN THE WAY OF -SHSN/ WILL BACK BY 20-30 DEGREES EARLY TONIGHT

CAUSING ENHANCEMENT AND CONSOLIDATION OF THE SNOWBANDS THANKS TO A

BETTER/LONGER...310 DEG SLIGHTLY CYCLONIC FETCH ACROSS THE LAKE

HURON AND LAKE ERIE. HI RES WRF ARW AND NMM INDICATE AN

INCREASE/FOCUS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NW MTNS /WITH THE

TARGET AREA FOR A 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WESTERN WARREN

COUNTY...SE ACROSS CLEARFIELD COUNTY...TO PERHAPS JUST OFF THE

ALLEGHENY PLATEAU TO BETWEEN KUNV AND KAOO. THE OTHER PRIME LOCATION

FOR SNOW WILL BE THE TYPICAL HIGH TERRAIN OF SOMERSET COUNTY...ESP

WEST OF RT 219.

A FEW LOCATIONS WITHIN THESE FEW NARROW...BUT POTENTIALLY INTENSE

SNOWBANDS...COULD PICK UP 3 INCHES WITHIN JUST A FEW HOURS AS THE

BAND SLOWLY OSCILLATES/OR DRIFTS SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

TEMPS WITHIN MUCH OF THIS LAKE EFFECT/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED CLOUD

LAYER WILL BE IN THE FAVORABLE...-12 TO -18C THERMAL RIBBON FOR

DENDRITIC GROWTH.

 

 

MAG and I FTW. 

That would definitely be a nice bonus, I was already pleasantly surprised with how much the frontal passage gave us last night. There's still a decent amount of that snow left over in the yard esp in the shady spots. Should be interesting to see how these bands of snow set up. Given the strength of the cold air mass and the favorable snow growth parameters someone could def get fluff bombed with several inches if an intense band decides to develop and linger around the same area. 

 

Don't see anything crazy jumping out of the radar at the moment but there are a couple bands to keep an eye on across the central. 

[JamieOber]

That would definitely be a nice bonus, I was already pleasantly surprised with how much the frontal passage gave us last night. There's still a decent amount of that snow left over in the yard esp in the shady spots. Should be interesting to see how these bands of snow set up. Given the strength of the cold air mass and the favorable snow growth parameters someone could def get fluff bombed with several inches if an intense band decides to develop and linger around the same area. 

 

Don't see anything crazy jumping out of the radar at the moment but there are a couple bands to keep an eye on across the central. 

around this time last night we got a fairly heavy snow shower that dropped .5. 

Not sure if it caused this: http://www.centredaily.com/2013/11/12/3885644/snow-showers-icy-roads-cause-dangerous.html They had 322/220 closed right in front of our house. So sad. 

[JamieOber]

As nut wisely pointed out above, there's been a lot of uncertainty in the models so CAUTIOUS optimism is the key, but it looks pretty good moving forward as we head into early December. From what I read, last night's 11-15 day Euro ensembles had lots of good signs, and it also FINALLY looks like we enter a wetter pattern. GFS and Euro both show around an inch or so of rain early next week to go with the warmup, followed by another cold shot and snow showers/flurries. 

 

I just can't get over it, because I had mentally prepared for Torchvember and here we are with a cold first half of November. It also seems like any winter forecast from October is totally out the window right now as things are rather strange with a lot of mixed signals.

[jm1220]

As nut wisely pointed out above, there's been a lot of uncertainty in the models so CAUTIOUS optimism is the key, but it looks pretty good moving forward as we head into early December. From what I read, last night's 11-15 day Euro ensembles had lots of good signs, and it also FINALLY looks like we enter a wetter pattern. GFS and Euro both show around an inch or so of rain early next week to go with the warmup, followed by another cold shot and snow showers/flurries. 

 

I just can't get over it, because I had mentally prepared for Torchvember and here we are with a cold first half of November. It also seems like any winter forecast from October is totally out the window right now as things are rather strange with a lot of mixed signals.

Things are going to warm up later this month, well above average. So the month as a whole might be above average.

[JamieOber]

Things are going to warm up later this month, well above average. So the month as a whole might be above average.

Actually that's even being called into question. I'm seeing talk about an interesting Thanksgiving week from HM. Last night's Euro is a roller coaster with a pretty impressive cold front charging SE at 240. The Euro and GFS are at odds there. Plus, note the Weeklies I posted above. It's a really interesting and confusing pattern. 

[EasternUSWX]

Actually that's even being called into question. I'm seeing talk about an interesting Thanksgiving week from HM. Last night's Euro is a roller coaster with a pretty impressive cold front charging SE at 240. The Euro and GFS are at odds there. Plus, note the Weeklies I posted above. It's a really interesting and confusing pattern. 

 

I'm not confused. Right on track from where I see it. I been looking at an active early December for a while now. I think end of Nov and start of December will be interesting. Preparing a video discussion for Friday on my website. 

[EasternUSWX]

Polar express round 2 next week.

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Snow cover is definitely helping the early cold regime.  These highs across the region are more common for late December / January.  Perhaps we are in for a cold, but dry winter?

[jm1220]

Actually that's even being called into question. I'm seeing talk about an interesting Thanksgiving week from HM. Last night's Euro is a roller coaster with a pretty impressive cold front charging SE at 240. The Euro and GFS are at odds there. Plus, note the Weeklies I posted above. It's a really interesting and confusing pattern. 

Hopefully blocking of some kind can develop later this month, as that would normally roll over into December and give us all a wintry/snowy period and a threat of a big storm or two.

[JamieOber]

Hopefully blocking of some kind can develop later this month, as that would normally roll over into December and give us all a wintry/snowy period and a threat of a big storm or two.

Yup. That would be awesome. 

[PennMan]

As nut wisely pointed out above, there's been a lot of uncertainty in the models so CAUTIOUS optimism is the key, but it looks pretty good moving forward as we head into early December. From what I read, last night's 11-15 day Euro ensembles had lots of good signs, and it also FINALLY looks like we enter a wetter pattern. GFS and Euro both show around an inch or so of rain early next week to go with the warmup, followed by another cold shot and snow showers/flurries. 

 

I just can't get over it, because I had mentally prepared for Torchvember and here we are with a cold first half of November. It also seems like any winter forecast from October is totally out the window right now as things are rather strange with a lot of mixed signals.

 

No sign of Torchvember in the mountains of Sullivan County.  But for a few stands of larches holding some yellow needles, it could have passed for mid-winter up there this morning.  Temperatures in the low 20s, a few inches of snow on the ground, and some decent ice on most of the ponds. They even had to plow some of yesterday's snow in places.

 

Doesn't look like a pattern that's conducive to long stretches of warm weather.

[JamieOber]

Polar express round 2 next week.

 

 

 

Nice. Roller coaster pattern for sure. 

 

No sign of Torchvember in the mountains of Sullivan County.  But for a few stands of larches holding some yellow needles, it could have passed for mid-winter up there this morning.  Temperatures in the low 20s, a few inches of snow on the ground, and some decent ice on most of the ponds. They even had to plow some of yesterday's snow in places.

 

Doesn't look like a pattern that's conducive to long stretches of warm weather.

 

I was walking our greyhounds last night in the backyard, in a snow shower, with snow crunching underfoot and was thinking how wintry it felt. 

[CarlislePaWx]

Hi Guys!

 

Great to see you all again after coming out of my summer hibernation.  Recent posts do seem encouraging.  I look forward to participating more as we move into winter.

 

As for at my house early yesterday morning I woke up to a solid "trace" of snow on the colder surfaces like my back deck and glass-topped picnic table.  I think it's possible I could have recorded 0.1", however since I did not actually observe it I will stick with my conservative trace.

 

Currently my dew point is 17.  That should hopefully set up a good radiational night once winds die off later this evening.  My official low so far has been 26.9 degrees from some point last week.  Haha...I can't even remember what date already.

 

For those of you who receive Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter, at some point during October he talked about the analogs and mentioned that the winter of '60-'61 was showing up.  I was only one year old shortly before that winter.  While growing up my father would sometimes talk about what it was like during that particular winter because it was a pretty rare winter in which there was a one-foot plus snowstorm recorded in all three winter months...DJF.  This was in northern NJ.  I think the official records came from Newark Airport.  I lived about 15 miles west of there in southern Morris county.  My dad snapped a picture of a very little "me" all wrapped up in winter garb and standing on top of what was at least a four-foot high snow mound beside our garage.  He said that there was so much snow that they had to dig tunnels to locate sidewalks and driveways.  The earliest period I can remember with a winter that had a snow depth of 36" or more was in Jan/Feb of 1978.  Anyone living in the megalopolis, born before the late 60's, remembers that winter (and the February Blizzard) as one of the worst winters on record for snow and cold. 

 

So....just a little reminiscing to whet your weenie appetites for the time being.

 

See you all around here soon....

 

---Stephen

[MAG5035]

Actually that's even being called into question. I'm seeing talk about an interesting Thanksgiving week from HM. Last night's Euro is a roller coaster with a pretty impressive cold front charging SE at 240. The Euro and GFS are at odds there. Plus, note the Weeklies I posted above. It's a really interesting and confusing pattern. 

 

There's definitely a pretty significant warm up in the cards at the end of the week in response to the strong southerly flow and gulf moisture being drawn ahead of a system progged for the lakes. But this will be quickly followed by another strong frontal passage and some more lake effect by Sun/Mon. GFS and Euro today differ on the strength of the cold with the GFS being much colder, probably even colder than our current cold snap given the 510-516 thicknesses and 850 temps near -15ºC being progged. This current cold shot was impressive enough for what is barely the mid November timeframe, being more of a mid winter caliber. The Euro seemed more in the realm of normal for a post frontal cold regime, so we shall see what ends up being the case. 

 

The pattern this month has definitely been one of mixed signals, I wasn't necessarily buying the calls for a Torchvember.. but I definitely wasn't expecting notable cold to show itself until late in the month. I was originally skeptical when the models started picking up on the strength of this cold snap along with the big coastal. Of course we didn't get the big coastal, but the cold air certainly came. Look at the teleconnection indices.. we have a about a +4 AO to go with a mildly positive NAO and a negative PNA today. Pretty crazy that we managed to have such a significant cold snap in the wake of such things. Although discussion has been had in other threads of the ongoing solidly -EPO seemingly overriding what you would think would be a torch for the ages when you look at the other regular teleconnections. 

 

I still think we have a bit of a ways to go to get to where we want to be with a pattern that delivers cold and snow threats on a consistent basis, I'm still looking at around the last week of the month or maybe early December. But the direction looks positive and in the meantime we'll be dealing with some big swings in the weather the next week or so. Hopefully we can get some much needed rain.

[EasternUSWX]

Not sure why, but it has not got too cold here. Clear skies and calm winds and the temp is up to 33 from 32 an hour ago. It should be in the 20's by now. 

[PennMan]

Down to 24 already down in the hole.

[EasternUSWX]

Here are my thoughts on end of Nov, but practically first half of December.

 

Analog years

2009, 2005, 2002, 2000, 1995 and 1985

Based on -AO, -NAO, Neutral to + PNA, -WPO, -EPO, MJO phases 8,1,2. 

 

 

 

 

 

Forecast

 

 

Colder than average temperatures in the east with a few coastal chances. Most storm may form too late off the coast, but 1 or 2 could hit the area. 

 

For us in central PA I see -2 to -3 in temps and a good snowfall or two somewhere in the region, most likely the eastern half. 

 

 

Latest CFS for DEC... COLDDDDDD

 

Early Dec

 

Mid-Dec

 

Late Dec

[Eskimo Joe]

This truly is an arctic airmass for the commonwealth...with dew points in the teens and single digits it's no surprise we are effectively radiating.  I'm actually seeing ponds and slow moving creeks ice up completely in the morning.

[djr5001]

Not sure why, but it has not got too cold here. Clear skies and calm winds and the temp is up to 33 from 32 an hour ago. It should be in the 20's by now. 

because warm air advection is a b*tch... York airport is typically a good indicator of when conditions are prime for radiational cooling in the area as there will be a sharp drop off in temperatures at sunset due to the location being in a valley.  Looking back at yesterday, temps dropped from 35 to 27 in under an hour between 5 and 6 PM.  Just after that time, the winds began to shift to more westerly after being northwesterly all day and temperatures started to climb.  Eventually they turned to more southwesterly overnight and ended up one of the warmest locations in the region this morning. 

[djr5001]

Here are my thoughts on end of Nov, but practically first half of December.

 

Analog years

2009, 2005, 2002, 2000, 1995 and 1985

Based on -AO, -NAO, Neutral to + PNA, -WPO, -EPO, MJO phases 8,1,2. 

 

 

 

with those analog years looking at snowfall for past 30 winters for Harrisburg (Winter as in Dec through April):

 

2009-2010 57.3" 3rd

2005-2006 17.9" 19th

2002-2003 56.7" 4th

2000-2001 28" 10th

1995-1996 69.5" 2nd

1985-1986 36.5" 7th

 

December Ranks:

2009 - 14.1" 3rd

2005 - 12.2" 4th

2002 - 15.8" 2nd

2000 - 5.6" 10th

1995 - 17.4" 1st

1985 - 5.6" 10th

[JamieOber]

Down to 24 already down in the hole.

Only managed 27.5 for last night. Good breeze kept it higher. 

[Wmsptwx]

Actually looking forward to low 60s early next week.

[EasternUSWX]

GFS has some snow around Thanksgiving then lowers the cold boom for the extended. 

[sauss06]

No sign of Torchvember in the mountains of Sullivan County.  But for a few stands of larches holding some yellow needles, it could have passed for mid-winter up there this morning.  Temperatures in the low 20s, a few inches of snow on the ground, and some decent ice on most of the ponds. They even had to plow some of yesterday's snow in places.

 

Doesn't look like a pattern that's conducive to long stretches of warm weather.

I know what they are

[PennMan]

Only managed 27.5 for last night. Good breeze kept it higher.

Yeah that was the low here, began rising after that and was 28 at 5am. Radiating nicely again here tonight. From 42 at 4:45 to 34 now.