PennMan Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Winter is coming in yo. Sunday might not break 30 lol.NWS had us at 28 for the high Sunday...should mark our first sub-freezing high of the season. Another cold night in store tonight, already down to 23, low was 18 this morning.I'm hoping we can at least see some light LES stuff from the upcoming cold shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 NWS had us at 28 for the high Sunday...should mark our first sub-freezing high of the season. Another cold night in store tonight, already down to 23, low was 18 this morning. I'm hoping we can at least see some light LES stuff from the upcoming cold shots. Supposed to be only 28 here tonight, already down to 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's funny that people are expecting snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro looks decent for next week's system, a 1-3 event here and IPT. MDT actually gets .93 but VERY touch and go on temps. Here's the rundown: MDT TUE 12Z 26-NOV 0.4 -1.7 1020 51 98 0.00 560 544TUE 18Z 26-NOV 1.2 0.8 1016 94 95 0.10 559 546WED 00Z 27-NOV 1.1 3.1 1012 99 99 0.42 559 550WED 06Z 27-NOV 1.1 1.6 1008 96 91 0.20 556 550WED 12Z 27-NOV 0.4 -2.4 1009 88 53 0.21 552 545WED 18Z 27-NOV 3.1 -4.4 1010 60 2 0.00 549 541 IPT TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.4 -2.2 1015 68 96 0.01 555 543WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.9 -0.9 1013 97 97 0.18 555 545WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.4 -3.1 1010 89 93 0.07 553 545WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.6 -5.3 1010 85 2 0.01 549 541 UNV TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.5 -1.4 1015 79 99 0.02 556 544WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.5 -1.0 1013 98 98 0.16 555 545WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.6 -4.3 1011 90 89 0.04 553 544WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.9 -5.6 1011 80 2 0.01 549 540WED 18Z 27-NOV 0.3 -9.6 1013 56 4 0.00 547 537 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Euro looks decent for next week's system, a 1-3 event here and IPT. MDT actually gets .93 but VERY touch and go on temps. Here's the rundown: MDT TUE 12Z 26-NOV 0.4 -1.7 1020 51 98 0.00 560 544 TUE 18Z 26-NOV 1.2 0.8 1016 94 95 0.10 559 546 WED 00Z 27-NOV 1.1 3.1 1012 99 99 0.42 559 550 WED 06Z 27-NOV 1.1 1.6 1008 96 91 0.20 556 550 WED 12Z 27-NOV 0.4 -2.4 1009 88 53 0.21 552 545 WED 18Z 27-NOV 3.1 -4.4 1010 60 2 0.00 549 541 IPT TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.4 -2.2 1015 68 96 0.01 555 543 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.9 -0.9 1013 97 97 0.18 555 545 WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.4 -3.1 1010 89 93 0.07 553 545 WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.6 -5.3 1010 85 2 0.01 549 541 UNV TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.5 -1.4 1015 79 99 0.02 556 544 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.5 -1.0 1013 98 98 0.16 555 545 WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.6 -4.3 1011 90 89 0.04 553 544 WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.9 -5.6 1011 80 2 0.01 549 540 WED 18Z 27-NOV 0.3 -9.6 1013 56 4 0.00 547 537 You don't happen to have the rundown for AVP by chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's funny that people are expecting snow next week. Would be really difficult for us up here in Clearfield/UNV/Mag land to avoid it. Not how our climate works when you get a few arctic air intrusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 You don't happen to have the rundown for AVP by chance? TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.4 -1.2 1016 77 97 0.03 556 543 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.3 0.6 1012 98 99 0.20 556 546 WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.4 -0.8 1009 95 93 0.23 554 547 WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.4 -3.8 1009 91 33 0.08 550 543 WED 18Z 27-NOV 0.4 -5.6 1009 71 2 0.00 547 539 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.4 -1.2 1016 77 97 0.03 556 543 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.3 0.6 1012 98 99 0.20 556 546 WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.4 -0.8 1009 95 93 0.23 554 547 WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.4 -3.8 1009 91 33 0.08 550 543 WED 18Z 27-NOV 0.4 -5.6 1009 71 2 0.00 547 539 Thank you, should be an interesting trip from Virginia to Pennsylvania on Tuesday night......I 81 will be a fun time I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 Would be really difficult for us up here in Clearfield/UNV/Mag land to avoid it. Not how our climate works when you get a few arctic air intrusions. Fake snow FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Fake snow FTW? Eh...snow is snow. I'm much more skeptical of warmth at this point, the way things have been going the last month or so. There's been a fair amount of warm forecasts busting (such as the warm Nov back in Oct, and warm second have of Nov back in early Nov that I've seen). We'll see what that means going forward. The CFS was very warm for week 4 but we've been there before with that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's funny that people are expecting snow next week. Euro looks decent for next week's system, a 1-3 event here and IPT. MDT actually gets .93 but VERY touch and go on temps. Here's the rundown: MDT TUE 12Z 26-NOV 0.4 -1.7 1020 51 98 0.00 560 544 TUE 18Z 26-NOV 1.2 0.8 1016 94 95 0.10 559 546 WED 00Z 27-NOV 1.1 3.1 1012 99 99 0.42 559 550 WED 06Z 27-NOV 1.1 1.6 1008 96 91 0.20 556 550 WED 12Z 27-NOV 0.4 -2.4 1009 88 53 0.21 552 545 WED 18Z 27-NOV 3.1 -4.4 1010 60 2 0.00 549 541 IPT TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.4 -2.2 1015 68 96 0.01 555 543 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.9 -0.9 1013 97 97 0.18 555 545 WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.4 -3.1 1010 89 93 0.07 553 545 WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.6 -5.3 1010 85 2 0.01 549 541 UNV TUE 18Z 26-NOV 0.5 -1.4 1015 79 99 0.02 556 544 WED 00Z 27-NOV -0.5 -1.0 1013 98 98 0.16 555 545 WED 06Z 27-NOV -0.6 -4.3 1011 90 89 0.04 553 544 WED 12Z 27-NOV -1.9 -5.6 1011 80 2 0.01 549 540 WED 18Z 27-NOV 0.3 -9.6 1013 56 4 0.00 547 537 to me the 0z Euro looks like a typical ice storm for part of Susq Valley region... warmer aloft but near freezing at surface Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I just hope some type of precip falls, this cold and dry stuff is annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Lot of the Euro ens beam central pa. Also 6Z GFS members had about 5 solid hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 21, 2013 Author Share Posted November 21, 2013 King EURO must be drinking of late...really was off the mark on the last "storm". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 King EURO must be drinking of late...really was off the mark on the last "storm". CMC, GFS to an extent (GFS ens), Ukmet and Euro and it's Ens have the storm. Something to watch for sure. I think someone in PA will get snow from this, just who idk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Dang coldest rain coming tonight in a long time! Grass outside the school still frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Dang coldest rain coming tonight in a long time! Grass outside the school still frozen. Our ground is actually starting to freeze, especially in the shady areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'll sum up the NOAA winter outlook: "**** if we know, so just look at the CPC's 8-14 day outlook and go with it." http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2013/20131121_winteroutlook.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 looks and feels like snow now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 I'm definitely liking where the models are at this stage. Euro is not QUITE phased enough, GFS ensembles have a good chunk showing lots of snow and a couple members even still too far west, but more to the southeast. Hard to tell for sure, but the 00z UKMET looks like it's going to pull a 00z EURO. And again, most importantly, the DGEX is a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 TWC just showed the "precip" map for Wednesday and had a huge blue section for snow with a niiiiiiiiice white slot, denoting dry right over Williamsport. Man TWC is in on the joke... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 Thank you, should be an interesting trip from Virginia to Pennsylvania on Tuesday night......I 81 will be a fun time I'm sure. I-81 from Carlisle to Front Royal sucks ass on the sunniest of days. I cannot imagine how bad it would be during a snow event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 TWC just showed the "precip" map for Wednesday and had a huge blue section for snow with a niiiiiiiiice white slot, denoting dry right over Williamsport. Man TWC is in on the joke... They know it dude, it's legendary now lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z GFS ensemble breakdown for State College... WEST CAMP: 10/20 ensembles (50%) have ~1" or more of liquid equivalent precip. 8 of those (40%) have ~0.4"+ of it being frozen (with 3 of them (15%) being all frozen). 2 of those (10%) are mostly rain, so too far west. EURO CAMP: 5/20 ensembles (25%) have light to moderate snow. 2 of those (10%) have ~0.4"-0.6". 3 (15%) have around 0.1"-0.2" OPERATIONAL GFS CAMP: 5/20 ensembles (25%) give us no precip with the storm. Again, I like where things stand as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z Euro slightly stronger and more inland... heavy cold rain for eastern PA with snow/ice potential in the central mountains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 12z Euro slightly stronger and more inland... heavy cold rain for eastern PA with snow/ice potential in the central mountains It's great for State College. However, I am worried the trend north/west will continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 TWC just showed the "precip" map for Wednesday and had a huge blue section for snow with a niiiiiiiiice white slot, denoting dry right over Williamsport. Man TWC is in on the joke... They know it dude, it's legendary now lol! They just look at IPT averages and say "how the **** can a town in the PA mountains average under 40" a year" and just go with it. I-81 from Carlisle to Front Royal sucks ass on the sunniest of days. I cannot imagine how bad it would be during a snow event... Really, the entire Harrisburg area seems to be a magnet for awful driving. I used to hear my dad talk about it when I was a kid in the 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's great for State College. However, I am worried the trend north/west will continue. I can't see it coming much more in. Euro actually has somewhat of a phase this run so if we can get that to happen a bit more east and more intense, the cold air will wrap in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 It's great for State College. However, I am worried the trend north/west will continue. there has been a common theme over the past several runs of the Euro/GFS etc where the stronger the low the more it hugs the coastline and the slower the high over the upper midwest tracks east... Euro has also had high over the Atlantic much stronger than the GFS has been... GFS also continues to have very little interest in the southern energy interacting with the northern stream - hence continuing to stay south and east and out to sea... I am also interested in seeing how Lake Effect Snow bands set up both this weekend and after this system moves out midweek... Lake Erie surface temperatures are in upper 40s to about 50F with 850 temps moving in roughly between -12 and -16C (~3 - 10F)... as long as winds are not too strong across the lake and end up an appropriate direction... someone is going to see +TSSN with temp differences like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted November 21, 2013 Share Posted November 21, 2013 ~1.84" QPF for MDT from 12z Euro text output... most of that rain but still concerned if surface temps in the 34F range coming down that heavy... really bad timing for places to ice over with holiday travel traffic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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