north pgh Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I had .97 from midnight last night thru 8:00 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Latest GFS shows what I think will happen, it gets smushed to the south by the big arctic high, we see our first accumulating snow from lake effect, LSV sees first flurries. Despite what I keep hearing people say, this is nothing at all unusual for November and is a reasonable solution. I hear people even up here think that snow in mid-November is like a Cat 3 rolling up the Susky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Jamie is spot on!!! That cold of air usually=suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think the more wound up solutions are less likely given the flow and trough axis, but I am not sold that this ends up that far south either. Something more like the GGEM is very possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I think the more wound up solutions are less likely given the flow and trough axis, but I am not sold that this ends up that far south either. Something more like the GGEM is very possible. hmm...just looked at that. Another solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 7, 2013 Author Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z EURO is a major hit for the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 12z EURO is a major hit for the interior. The boom is laid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Too bad that's day 7.5. Like sauss said pick it up on Sunday Night if its still there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Too bad that's day 7.5. Like sauss said pick it up on Sunday Night if its still there. It is the end of the run. lol It starts at hr 144-150. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 The boom is laid. Time to move to Roanoke? I guess UVA can bank the snow week off now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Those snow maps have serious errors. Most of that precip in pa falls with 850 temps above 0. It's 7 days out so whatever but those maps are less then useless and misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If the GFS sucks at 0Z I am sure the balloon will finally be popped when 0Z euro packs her in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 If the GFS sucks at 0Z I am sure the balloon will finally be popped when 0Z euro packs her in.I wouldn't get too excited about any run this far out and I wouldn't get that down about it either. The general setup is all models have much skill with at this range. Solutions could pop up disappear then re-emerge. I don't get interested in details until inside 72 hours. I'm certainly not concerned by the gfs being too progressive at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 I wouldn't get too excited about any run this far out and I wouldn't get that down about it either. The general setup is all models have much skill with at this range. Solutions could pop up disappear then re-emerge. I don't get interested in details until inside 72 hours. I'm certainly not concerned by the gfs being too progressive at this range. Sucks snow is so dang hard to get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Sucks snow is so dang hard to get.It's not that hard. It will snow at some point just seems hard when u get expectations up with every potential event. It's November 7. Way to early for getting upset over 160 hour 18z gfs runs. Pace yourself or its gonna get ugly by Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 It's not that hard. It will snow at some point just seems hard when u get expectations up with every potential event. It's November 7. Way to early for getting upset over 160 hour 18z gfs runs. Pace yourself or its gonna get ugly by Xmas. Snow is pretty hard to get compared to rain. We average 30" and thats in a good year. Typically 20ish. That's not that much now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How about this storm: An early season snowfall hit the Mid-Atlantic region on November 6th, 1953. This storm brought 8.8" of snowfall to Philadelphia and is the only accumulating snowfall to hit Philadelphia on November 6th and is the largest single snowstorm in Philadelphia this early in the snow season and the second largest snowfall in November in Philadelphia all-time. Lock Haven, PA had 29.8" of snow from this storm, the largest amount of snow from this low pressure system. http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/11/november-1953-snowstorm.html Edit: On this date in Pennsylvania Weather History...Almost 30 inches of snow fell in Lock Haven, 17.5 in York and 8.8 in Philadelphia. (1953) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 How about this storm: An early season snowfall hit the Mid-Atlantic region on November 6th, 1953. This storm brought 8.8" of snowfall to Philadelphia and is the only accumulating snowfall to hit Philadelphia on November 6th and is the largest single snowstorm in Philadelphia this early in the snow season and the second largest snowfall in November in Philadelphia all-time. Lock Haven, PA had 29.8" of snow from this storm, the largest amount of snow from this low pressure system. http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com/2007/11/november-1953-snowstorm.html Lancaster got over a foot of snow and it was their earliest such storm on record. 30" for Lock Haven is just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 TWC went whole hog with the moron hype last night, talking about crippling snow next week. That's part of it. Yeah but have they named it yet?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 7, 2013 Share Posted November 7, 2013 Yeah but have they named it yet?? The Social Media Monger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Looks like some snow bands moving into western PA. Anyone getting in on those yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 Looks like some snow bands moving into western PA. Anyone getting in on those yet? Yup...Meadville, PA (KGKJ) is: KGKJ 080405Z AUTO 24004KT 3SM -SN BR OVC005 01/00 A3005 RMK AO2 P0000 TSNO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 So uh... GFS wide right eh? Anyone staying up til 1 to slice their throats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Lol probably a couple of people here. Gfs barely has a storm lmao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 So uh... GFS wide right eh? Anyone staying up til 1 to slice their throats? We will see some flurries and it will be cold a few days. Lamez. 0Z GFS then torches life away after the cold moves out. Anyone who actually thought there wad going to be a big snowstorm needs their head checked. Was just fun seeing it, but we all know the end result every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Kind of odd that CTP addressed it on facebook earlier this evening. There has been some chatter about one of our computer models predicting a big snow storm for the middle of next week. The ECMWF does indeed predict a major storm along the mid Atlantic coast next Thursday, but keep in mind, it's alone among all the models we look at to make our forecasts. However if you like snow, you will hope this one model ends up being right. Stay tuned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 We will see some flurries and it will be cold a few days. Lamez. 0Z GFS then torches life away after the cold moves out. Anyone who actually thought there wad going to be a big snowstorm needs their head checked. Was just fun seeing it, but we all know the end result every time. If it shows ridiculous totals in northcentralpa it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 Getting some light flurries here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 8, 2013 Author Share Posted November 8, 2013 CTP almost had to address it and downplay it because the media is starting to jump on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted November 8, 2013 Share Posted November 8, 2013 We will see some flurries and it will be cold a few days. Lamez. 0Z GFS then torches life away after the cold moves out. Anyone who actually thought there wad going to be a big snowstorm needs their head checked. Was just fun seeing it, but we all know the end result every time. Says the guy posting snow maps last few days. Getting some light flurries here currently. Yep. Went through a decent burst of snow on the way in, mostly right before I got to Skytop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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