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September 2013 General Discussion


daddylonglegs

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75° here with a few sun breaks. Wind is cutting out of the SE right now.

 

Good luck picking up rain later today DLL. I know your area needs it.

 

MKX disco on severe weather potential and heavy rain threat tonight/afternoon.

 

 

000
FXUS63 KMKX 191713 AAA
AFDMKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI
1213 PM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS MN IS DISSIPATING LATE
THIS MORNING. SUNSHINE AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE ON THE HEELS OF
THIS CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST WI. IT MAY TAKE SOUTHEAST AND EAST
CENTRAL WI A LITTLE LONGER TO MIX OUT THE LOWER CLOUDS...SO WILL BE
LOWERING MAX TEMPS IN THAT AREA A LITTLE.

CLEARING SKIES WILL CREATE A GOOD SETUP FOR STRONG STORMS JUST AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MODELS HAVE
NOT CHANGED MUCH IN REGARDS TO TIMING AND INSTABILITY. REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. IN ADDITION...WE ARE NOTING A PERIOD OF TIME
AROUND 00Z IN WESTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE 0-1 BULK SHEAR IS UP TO 20
KNOTS...THEREFORE TORNADO THREAT IS NOT NIL. SPC EXPANDED THE 2
PERCENT TORNADO PROBABILITY INTO THE NORTH HALF OF THE MKX FORECAST
AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:

STILL ON TRACK FOR SWATH OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT AS STRONG COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH. 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR INCREASES TO 25 TO 35 KNOTS RESULTING IN MULTI-CELLS AND SOME
SUPERCELLS. ENHANCED LIFT FROM RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF STRENGTHENING
UPPER LEVEL JET DUE TO SHARPENING UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS SRN WI
OVERNIGHT. WL CONTINUE TO MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT DUE TO
UNSEASONABLY HIGH PWAT AND MBE VELOCITIES FLIRTING WITH 10 KNOTS FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE NIGHT.

 

NAM bullish on new rainfall amounts tonight/afternoon.

 

NAM_221_2013091912_F48_PCPIN_48_HR.png

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Getting a strong outflow in wake of the t-storm activity pushing off to the east. Winds have been pushing 30 mph.

Temperature and dewpoint has come down in the last hour.

Wondering if the old outflow boundaries will be a focus for t-storm activity as the front approaches later.

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Tornado Warning in northwest Indiana.

 

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
540 PM EDT THU SEP 19 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL BENTON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST INDIANA...

* UNTIL 615 PM EDT

* AT 536 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR WADENA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...TORNADO AND SMALL HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS
           WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS
           LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  WADENA AROUND 605 PM EDT.
  LOCHIEL AND BARCE AROUND 615 PM EDT.
 

 

 

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