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5/29 Severe Threat


CT Rain

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FWIW...those storms firing with the warnings are getting a great deal of help from the s/w trough moving through...instability is fine but not as great as eastern NY/western MA area.  If we can hold these instability values through 7-8 PM it could be fun here.  

 

If that batch of showers from the Catskills comes through though we may be cooked

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This stuff in NY appears rooted in mechanics associated with S/W in the flow... Because of that they are likely less dependent on SBCAPE and llv lapse rates.  The original concern regarded these later params, but have appeared to be muted some.  However, any mechanics forcing will likely overcome that.  

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New Jersey gets lake effect snow showers too..just not that frequently.

 

I think it is more akin to Mid-Atlantic snow events...they get them, but usually a lot of things have to go right for it to be a higher end event. Otherwise the events are paltry/marginal/changeovers. Most of our severe events are marginal and scattered/isolated, but we occasionally get things to line up enough for a big time event.

NY State (and even into the adjacent counties like Berkshire) does a lot better than us in the severe department so its different if you are talking about a region bounded by PSF/AVP/BGM/ROC/SYR.

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ehe, I wonder if this is the old curve ball about to happen.  It's when you have a nice broken line of severe in up-state NY moving E to ESE but as they near ALB, they magically are going more SE, and then only CT gets any fun, while the rest of us are stablized under b-bangin' anvil puke.

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