weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 At least lapse rates are pretty decent, so a short lived pulser may become strong or borderline severe for a time...but lack of shear def hurts...esp south of the pike. Maybe it gets a bit better later on. Best combo of instability and shear is def NY State up near ALB and west along the thruway. The NAM has suggested that we see 30-35 knots work into at least central CT later on and the trends all have have had these stronger shear values work slowly southward. Cape is pretty high though along with the steep mlvl lapse rates like you said. Certainly we would see pulsers but those pulsers could drop some pretty big hail...models also show helicity increasing so shear must increase somewhere, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Watches galore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Watches galoreHanded out like Halloween candy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 This is so exciting!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Sea breeze front only sinking west very slowly. Will be interested to see if it speeds up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 For around 4 PM...WRF really insists on something coming through CT later on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The reason why I love just from south of the MA Pike to northern CT is you have very strong instability present under the presence of the EML plume. While shear may not be fantastic this area resides on the axis of stronger instability along with some weak convergence from the boundary...normally this would be a meh situation but given the EML plume, strong instability and adequate shear, there could be a few very big storms later on with some pretty big hail and very strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 WWUS40 KWNS 211807WWP4SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH PROBABILITIES FOR WS 0204NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0102 PM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013WS 0204PROBABILITY TABLE:PROB OF 2 OR MORE TORNADOES : 10%PROB OF 1 OR MORE STRONG /F2-F5/ TORNADOES : <02%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE WIND EVENTS : 30%PROB OF 1 OR MORE WIND EVENTS >= 65 KNOTS : 10%PROB OF 10 OR MORE SEVERE HAIL EVENTS : 30%PROB OF 1 OR MORE HAIL EVENTS >= 2 INCHES : 30%PROB OF 6 OR MORE COMBINED SEVERE HAIL/WIND EVENTS : 60%&&ATTRIBUTE TABLE:MAX HAIL /INCHES/ : 2.0MAX WIND GUSTS SURFACE /KNOTS/ : 60MAX TOPS /X 100 FEET/ : 500MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR /DEGREES AND KNOTS/ : 29025PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION : NO&&FOR A COMPLETE GEOGRAPHICAL DEPICTION OF THE WATCH ANDWATCH EXPIRATION INFORMATION SEE WOUS64 FOR WOU4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I am sitting on a hill in Pomfret with a great view to the north (clear day I can see Mt Wachusett), and nice towers building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 This is so exciting!!!! This thread is more active than today's Central/Western forum severe thread lol. For now... Sea breeze visible here, parallel to and inching towards 495: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 NW MA is where I'd like to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 SVR out for cell south of Albany...perking up nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Just heard some thunder here in Albany associated with the cells starting to go up in the Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 SVR out for cell south of Albany...perking up nicely Yeah, Northwest is the place to be! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Backdoor is through. 63 here, kills any chance for severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Just heard some thunder here in Albany associated with the cells starting to go up in the Hudson Valley.There may be some heavy wx headed your way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That cell headed SE Twds Berks looks awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That cell headed SE Twds Berks looks awesome Yeah really starting to get a solid look...that could be the beginning of our line later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That cell headed SE Twds Berks looks awesome The mid level mesocyclone (~10kft) is surprisingly robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The mid level mesocyclone (~10kft) is surprisingly robust. Yeah I've been watching that the past several scans...hasn't gone away and if anything looks better than it did a few scans ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Even the cell headed up the Pike toward Sturbridge has strengthened nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 And the latest scan looks even better with higher velocities Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Hearing thunder to my NW of Pomfret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 They had golf ball hail in Buffalo earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Good Amount of thunder with that storm in far N Tol cty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Thunder right now in Tolland from the cell that just popped on the Stafford/MA border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Looks like the rotation is starting to tighten a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Right turner too. Looks like a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Right turner too. Looks like a good one. Those are the ones to watch! move against the mean flow and increases it's own helicity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Skies "anviling" over now with dark clouds just to our west beneath the anvil. It looks like a 2 cell complex. The presently warned southern cell may slip just to my south, but the northern one may get me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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