CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 lapse rates are meh but tomorrow is looking very interesting south of the warm front Looks unstable on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 lapse rates are meh but tomorrow is looking very interesting south of the warm front Head west young man... W MA and E NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Looks unstable on the GFS. I think we see our first slight tomorrow...at least for parts of the area. Head west young man... W MA and E NY I can't chase until next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Looks unstable on the GFS. GFS certainly unstable as well...NAM has stronger shear which is intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 I can't chase until next week Why? I think western MA looks like a good spot tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Why? I think western MA looks like a good spot tomorrow... My friend doesn't come down from NH until Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Nice storms coming through Upstate NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Nice storms coming through Upstate NY SVR out!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 This is actually quite interesting...mlvl lapse rates are very steep across the east...7-8 C/KM just to our west...the NAM barely had them to 6.5 C/KM. The NAM also keeps ~6.5 C/KM lapse rates tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 SVR out!!! Peaking next few hours, then the ramp-down. Just a little too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 wow...bufkit soundings aren't bad at all and GFS has some really steep lapse rates but with less shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 My friend is off tomorrow and I could get out of work by like 12:30 but I might tell him to get down here so we can go chase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Could be a wild afternoon for those of us on the good side of the front Joe Furey @StormFurey25m Mid-Summer again today temps mid 80's with afternoon/evening showers + thunderstorms(isolated severe possible pic.twitter.com/UxrbKnrtQl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The 6z GFS has a pretty impressive tongue of steep mid level lapse rates... around 7.5 C/KM later today. On top of a relatively moist boundary layer and a good deal of heating we should be pretty unstable this afternoon. Obviously there's not much shear (20-30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear) but any storms that are able to organize or weakly rotate could produce some severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The 6z GFS has a pretty impressive tongue of steep mid level lapse rates... around 7.5 C/KM later today. On top of a relatively moist boundary layer and a good deal of heating we should be pretty unstable this afternoon. Obviously there's not much shear (20-30 knots of 0-6km bulk shear) but any storms that are able to organize or weakly rotate could produce some severe weather. Sure glad we're on the nice side of that backdoor misery up to the NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Warm sector fun Joe Furey @StormFurey7m Already 70 degrees in Hartford. Temps in the mid 80's with high humidity and bad air quality. Few STRONG STORMS TOO!! pic.twitter.com/vChecU0cGe Ryan Hanrahan @ryanhanrahan1h We could see scattered strong/severe thunderstorms this afternoon. Keep an eye to the sky. Collapse Reply Retweeted Favorite More Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Shocked we don't have a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Thundershower right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Was going to work until 6 but going to get out at like 12:30 or whenever we're done with maintenance!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 WRF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 What time is that for Sultan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 What time is that for Sultan?Hi I am Steve but 2200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 http://www.wx1box.org/node/3295 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Shocked we don't have a slight risk The best forcing and dynamics are further north. With that said, even the calibrated SPC SREF severe probabilities reach 20% across western Mass. and eastern NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Seems a little early @NWSBoston: Midday Thunderstorm Update. Initial storms weaken then more storms develop early this afternoon. http://t.co/nJt01ugoQD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Sig severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 I think some storms could reach strong to severe limits, especially across western Mass., southern Vermont and westward into New York State. I expect showers and thunderstorms to continue into the overnight hours. The NAM shows this as well, so it might be a night where a few boomers wake some unsuspecting folks up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Bangers all night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Sig severe The best overlap of elevated MUCAPE and decent wind shear extends from central New York into Massachusetts: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 First slight risk of the season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.