CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 FIRST SLIGHT!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 FIRST SLIGHT!!!!!!!!!! Headed west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Some pretty decent storms rolling through NYS once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0751 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1154 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY...SRN NEW ENGLAND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 211654Z - 211800Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE INCREASING IN INTENSITY...PRIMARILY FOCUSED ALONG/S OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CNTRL NY AND INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE DMGG WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. A WW MAY BE NEEDED IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. DISCUSSION...SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS FROM 16Z PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR ROC-ALB. A FEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ALONG THIS FRONT...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WEAKENING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND MODEST MIDLEVEL MOISTENING/ASCENT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH BUF AND ALB SUGGEST AMPLE INSTABILITY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG-SVR TSTMS...WITH MLCAPE VALUES LIKELY EXCEEDING 2000 J/KG...GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. ADDITIONALLY...BOTH SOUNDING AND RECENT VWP DATA SHOW NEARLY 30 KTS OF MIDLEVEL FLOW AND MODESTLY VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED TSTM. COVERAGE OF TSTMS IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT...BUT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0751.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Headed west? Headed home after lunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 That storm west of ALB might be a looker soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Bangers gonna bang this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Your link doesn't play Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Your link doesn't play Iphone issue? looks fine on the PC, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Iphone issue? looks fine on the PC,Dunno but usually they always play. It's like a picture was just copied and pasted with no play option Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 At the end you can see a spherical vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Dunno but usually they always play. It's like a picture was just copied and pasted with no play option try This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 21, 2013 Author Share Posted May 21, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Litchfield and Berkshire Counties, also southern Vermont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch for Litchfield and Berkshire Counties, also southern Vermont. Great SB CAPE right now..too bad we don't have any s/w trigger or wind shear. There is a little convergence with the sea-breeze, hopefully it's enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Great SB CAPE right now..too bad we don't have any s/w trigger or wind shear. There is a little convergence with the sea-breeze, hopefully it's enough.itll extend south as the afternoon wears on. Setup is ripe for long lasting storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Meso models insistent on north south moving line. Maybe it's a later evening type deal? http://twitter.com/derek_adesso/status/336895653986856960/photo/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Let the hype begin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Hoping we see a watch here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Great SB CAPE right now..too bad we don't have any s/w trigger or wind shear. There is a little convergence with the sea-breeze, hopefully it's enough. The shear really sucks right now south of roughly I-90. A brief pulser is probably all that would be supported right now. Def looks better up toward NW MA/S VT and NY State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The shear really sucks right now south of roughly I-90. A brief pulser is probably all that would be supported right now. Def looks better up toward NW MA/S VT and NY State. Agreed Will. There's almost no directional 0-6km shear and there really isn't even much speed shear either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Storms firing all over CT/ Mass now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Temp up 3 degrees in ten minutes (67F), looks like that marine crap is retreating or eroding a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The main issue today is just a lack of a more pronounced trigger. Shear really isn't all that bad with 30-35 knots of 0-6km shear...sure meso maps don't show much over CT but extreme northern CT is on the axis of this stronger shear which will help. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Storms firing all over CT/ Mass now There are four weak showers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 The main issue today is just a lack of a more pronounced trigger. Shear really isn't all that bad with 30-35 knots of 0-6km shear...sure meso maps don't show much over CT but extreme northern CT is on the axis of this stronger shear which will help. At least lapse rates are pretty decent, so a short lived pulser may become strong or borderline severe for a time...but lack of shear def hurts...esp south of the pike. Maybe it gets a bit better later on. Best combo of instability and shear is def NY State up near ALB and west along the thruway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 MY FIRST WATCH!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 Severe watch Tolland Hartford Windham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 AWT. Bangers gonna bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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