weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Thursday is heavily dependent on daytime heating (models not consistent) and timing of the cold front. Right now it appears the timing may be too late for appreciable severe, but we'll see. Wednesday is interesting, but the best axis lies west of New England. It looks like we may get jipped, but there's still plenty of time for things to change. Tomorrow and Wednesday actually look quite interesting on the NAM. Tomorrow looks interesting across western MA and perhaps extreme northwestern CT while Wednesday looks interesting across the CT River Valley. Lapse rates look like they will be relatively weak tomorrow, however, looks like a pocket of steeper mlvl lapse rates will overspread the region on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tomorrow and Wednesday actually look quite interesting on the NAM. Tomorrow looks interesting across western MA and perhaps extreme northwestern CT while Wednesday looks interesting across the CT River Valley. Lapse rates look like they will be relatively weak tomorrow, however, looks like a pocket of steeper mlvl lapse rates will overspread the region on Wednesday.Wed is the day to watch, not Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wed is the day to watch, not Thursday Yeah I'm beginning to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah I'm beginning to agree.@damagingtimes# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah I'm beginning to agree. I don't see much of a trigger Wednesday unless the front hangs up over SNE. Main cold front is way west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tomorrow and Wednesday actually look quite interesting on the NAM. Tomorrow looks interesting across western MA and perhaps extreme northwestern CT while Wednesday looks interesting across the CT River Valley. Lapse rates look like they will be relatively weak tomorrow, however, looks like a pocket of steeper mlvl lapse rates will overspread the region on Wednesday. NAM simulated radar lights up on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Analog mean suggests Wednesday could be interesting, but I still think the best shot is west of SNE. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/WARM/F072/EC_072/PPF24allprobgfs212F072.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I don't see much of a trigger Wednesday unless the front hangs up over SNE. Main cold front is way west.Watch sea breeze boundaries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Watch sea breeze boundaries That's what I mean. If the front busts north into CNE...then not sure we see much. Might be more NY state type stuff, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wiz, the shear doesn't look particularly favorable despite some decent instability on Wednesday. Highest values across NYS and northern New England. The pattern may evolve more, we should watch the positioning of the frontal boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 What are we looking for Wednesday? It doesn't look at all good, jmo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Shear isn't great but it's adequate and inverted-v type profiles suggest we would probably see some strong winds as the main threat. There isn't a great deal of lift around but there may be some boundaries around which could spark stuff off. I don't expect widespread storms but certainly scattered storms are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wiz, the shear doesn't look particularly favorable despite some decent instability on Wednesday. Highest values across NYS and northern New England. The pattern may evolve more, we should watch the positioning of the frontal boundary. Yeah winds are pretty meh through the troposphere. Unless the jet shifts south (which probably means we back door) or instability way overperforms with a remnant EML plume not much to get excited about besides some pulsers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I am happy we do not have tornadoes like that, always can go to the MW to chase. Not having to build a shelter in my home is okay with me. Can satiate my morbid fascination if I want without the stress. Agree. I've been in the bullseye of a severe/micro burst event and I'm all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Agree. I've been in the bullseye of a severe/micro burst event and I'm all set. Only time I've ever heard pine trees slapping together like giant clappers and wind that felt like it was coming straight down out of the sky. http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/storms_force_greenfield_to_dec.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Only time I've ever heard pine trees slapping together like giant clappers and wind that felt like it was coming straight down out of the sky. http://www.masslive.com/news/index.ssf/2010/05/storms_force_greenfield_to_dec.html Thats what it's all about right there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Not looking for widespread or anything substantial...just looking for some isolated/scattered stuff which is possible...not necessarily severe either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Since this week looks pretty tame.. on the bright side, the past few runs of the gfs, including the 12z gfs, have a fairly well-est. early summer pattern in the extended. I like the angle of angle of attack as the ridging breaks down, with the bd/side door look. hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Thats what it's all about right there It was exciting until fear overode the weather weenie enthusiasm. I will say it was unlike any T-storm I had ever been through. Part of the intrigue was watching the storm on radar as it moved almost due S out of VT. Our severe almost always comes from the W here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 It was exciting until fear overode the weather weenie enthusiasm. I will say it was unlike any T-storm I had ever been through. Part of the intrigue was watching the storm on radar as it moved almost due S out of VT. Our severe almost always comes from the W here.Yeah the north / south movers are the most damaging. We had that one in Vernon in June of 92 with golf and tennis ball sized hail. It formed up in Central Mass along a backdoor and just ripped thru Central CT all the way to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wiz gets a nibble for tomorrow per 1730z Day 2 if he wants to head into E NY/extreme W MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wiz gets a nibble for tomorrow per 1730z Day 2 if he wants to head into E NY/extreme W MA I can't wait until Sunday...my friend from NH will be down for two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah the north / south movers are the most damaging. We had that one in Vernon in June of 92 with golf and tennis ball sized hail. It formed up in Central Mass along a backdoor and just ripped thru Central CT all the way to the coast. Only 3 years off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Only 3 years offLol 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I can't wait for our first slight risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Yeah the north / south movers are the most damaging. We had that one in Vernon in June of '95 with golf and tennis ball sized hail. It formed up in Central Mass along a backdoor and just ripped thru Central CT all the way to the coast. How large did the hail get in Tolland from that cell? My dad was working on the Vernon/Manchester line and was right in the middle of it. Hail was large enough to dent his new car lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 How large did the hail get in Tolland from that cell? My dad was working in Vernon/Manchester and was right in the middle of it. Hail was large enough to dent his new car lol. I lived in Vernon then. My wife lived in Tolland and it dented all 3 of their cars so probably the same size Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tomorrow could be a wrn ma and CT deal. Just speaking of tstms in general. Nothing much as far as forcing goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I lived in Vernon then. My wife lived in Tolland and it dented all 3 of their cars so probably the same size How large was the hail you saw in Vernon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Tomorrow could be a wrn ma and CT deal. Just speaking of tstms in general. Nothing much as far as forcing goes. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 21, 2013 Share Posted May 21, 2013 lapse rates are meh but tomorrow is looking very interesting south of the warm front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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