Damage In Tolland Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Line weakening now. With due south winds in May we never had a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 Looks like the next busted storm threat is for later this week. Dry and seasonable until then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 11, 2013 Share Posted May 11, 2013 SNE severe is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 SNE severe is awesome. Early May rarely works out around here. We usually see our first event with widespread reports in the 2nd half of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 Early May rarely works out around here. We usually see our first event with widespread reports in the 2nd half of the month. Cloud cover and lapse rates all screamed meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 12, 2013 Author Share Posted May 12, 2013 Cloud cover and lapse rates all screamed meh.The junk ahead of the "squall line" also didn't help. NJ had a better environment, that cell that went into Manhattan pulsed up nicely and dropped a ton of rain in a very short period of time, also a fair amount of CGs. Some reports of small hail and wind damage, but I didn't encounter that. Models really overdid CAPE for the lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 The junk ahead of the "squall line" also didn't help. NJ had a better environment, that cell that was ent into Manhattan pulsed up nicely and dropped a ton of rain in a very short period of time, also a fair amount of CGs. Some reports of small hail and wind damage, but I didn't encounter that. Models really overdid CAPE for the lower Hudson Valley. pretty intense in RI and New Bedford too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 12, 2013 Author Share Posted May 12, 2013 pretty intense in RI and New Bedford tooI'll have to look at radar over there. I was so focused on western CT and points SW that I probably missed those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 I'll have to look at radar over there. I was so focused on western CT and points SW that I probably missed those.ongoing looks like Messenger got raked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 12, 2013 Share Posted May 12, 2013 The new Tornado Warning Guidance from WDTB is pretty good. http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/awoc/awoc.html#SevereTrack Check it out. The nowcasting tornado intensity is pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 13, 2013 Author Share Posted May 13, 2013 It's too bad that we can't get more instability into the mix Wednesday evening. Very strong wind shear and good helicity values, but close to no instability. Not to mention temps on the cool side and dew-points maybe in the lower 50's. SCP values get really high into the mid-Atlantic states, where there's a better shot at some potential activity: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 17, 2013 Author Share Posted May 17, 2013 This thread may become more active next week, especially if we can punch some warm, humid air into the Northeast. Wiz, excited yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 There's an outside shot at something middle of next week, but we'd need to get good heating. There could be a lot of cloud debris. ALso there is model disagreement on where the sfc front sort of hangs up. GFS tries to warm sector us even on Thursday while the Euro is more of a stratiform rain deal with a sfc wave going south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Sad to say but GFS has been winning over Euro lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Sad to say but GFS has been winning over Euro lately GFS just got taken to the woodshed on the rain last week and this past cold snap in the medium/long range. Not sure why you think it has been "winning". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 GFS just got taken to the woodshed on the rain last week and this past cold snap in the medium/long range. Not sure why you think it has been "winning".Gefs had the light rain event last week. The op did not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Gefs had the light rain event last week. The op did not It's also tough to say one model is winning over the other when you are talking about something 10 days out. How many times will any model bust 10 days out or further? Lots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 It's also tough to say one model is winning over the other when you are talking about something 10 days out. How many times will any model bust 10 days out or further? Lots.Very true though now we are only talking 4-5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Looked at things a bit before I went to work but there certainly is interest in this week. Quite a bit of model uncertainty, however, so hopefully over the next 24-48 hours we can get a clearer picture of how the pattern will unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 There's an outside shot at something middle of next week, but we'd need to get good heating. There could be a lot of cloud debris. ALso there is model disagreement on where the sfc front sort of hangs up. GFS tries to warm sector us even on Thursday while the Euro is more of a stratiform rain deal with a sfc wave going south of us. Tuesday and Wednesday both have some opportunities but it will depend on front position, cloud debris, and heating. First shot of the season though so it's worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 Tuesday and Wednesday both have some opportunities but it will depend on front position, cloud debris, and heating. First shot of the season though so it's worth watching. Finally!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 17, 2013 Share Posted May 17, 2013 The GFS seems to be overdone with the dewpoints and even if the GFS is correct with the sfc dewpoints I'm sure they would mix out as 925/850mb dewpoints aren't really all that terrific. I also really don't see any fantastic lift or mlvl or ulvl support until perhaps next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Maybe some isolated severe on Wednesday perhaps into western MA/CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Just look this beast @EverythingWX: Picture of the wedge tornado from yesterday west of Shawnee. By far the most violent tornado I have ever seen. https://t.co/ZLlxP3zsUJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Just look this beast @EverythingWX: Picture of the wedge tornado from yesterday west of Shawnee. By far the most violent tornado I have ever seen. https://t.co/ZLlxP3zsUJ Every year I realize how sucky our season is, when I see those pics. I gotta go out there and see the real deal. CG doesn't cut it for me, I want to see everything from the structure to the stove pipe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Every year I realize how sucky our season is, when I see those pics. I gotta go out there and see the real deal. CG doesn't cut it for me, I want to see everything from the structure to the stove pipe.Yeah one of these yrs I am gonna go chase. Probably can't do it till kids are older and we are out of family vacation mode but one day I will do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 I am happy we do not have tornadoes like that, always can go to the MW to chase. Not having to build a shelter in my home is okay with me. Can satiate my morbid fascination if I want without the stress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Wish I was there . Wow @NBCNews: Video: Anchors take cover as tornado hits NBC affiliate @KSNNews in Wichita, Kansas http://t.co/eDHlvqhiqg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 20, 2013 Share Posted May 20, 2013 Might be able to pop some daytime heating type storms but we'll see how much instability we can generate. mlvl lapse rates right now are around 6-6.5 C/KM, however, the NAM does forecast them to weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 20, 2013 Author Share Posted May 20, 2013 Thursday is heavily dependent on daytime heating (models not consistent) and timing of the cold front. Right now it appears the timing may be too late for appreciable severe, but we'll see. Wednesday is interesting, but the best axis lies west of New England.It looks like we may get jipped, but there's still plenty of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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