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The early speculation on winter 2013-14

weathafella

By weathafella,
in New England

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codfishsnowman

codfishsnowman

Posted
Posted

i remember that one so well...i remember it was warm at the onset and i knew we would mix with and change to sleet for the first part of the storm in central ct...we got a foot but it was a huge let down after the 20 to 30 inch forecasts, i cant even imagine how the nyc folks felt

 

 

i think they mixed less from bdl north and i think snows were deeper once one got over the ma/ct border...perhaps one of the very few storms where it would have been better to have been in spfd ma lol

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

i remember that one so well...i remember it was warm at the onset and i knew we would mix with and change to sleet for the first part of the storm in central ct...we got a foot but it was a huge let down after the 20 to 30 inch forecasts, i cant even imagine how the nyc folks felt

 

 

i think they mixed less from bdl north and i think snows were deeper once one got over the ma/ct border...perhaps one of the very few storms where it would have been better to have been in spfd ma lol

http://www.youtube.c...h?v=j3NcOLieEIo

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scoob40

scoob40

Posted
Posted

i remember that one so well...i remember it was warm at the onset and i knew we would mix with and change to sleet for the first part of the storm in central ct...we got a foot but it was a huge let down after the 20 to 30 inch forecasts, i cant even imagine how the nyc folks felt

 

 

i think they mixed less from bdl north and i think snows were deeper once one got over the ma/ct border...perhaps one of the very few storms where it would have been better to have been in spfd ma lol

Very, very few LOL.

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Wonkis

Wonkis

Posted
Posted

This was one of my faves from recent history (this was a post, not an afd. The board of origin is defunct, so I'm not sure about the legalities of posting here):

 

 

 

 

update 11 pm:

 

first off... i think our office is so onto this...superb excellent efforts. not cking anywhere else and that not my business.

 

the following is not nws...just imo. not for media and not for calling offices. this is simply views from afar.

 

imo... we will see "spot=isolated" 30-35 inch amts along and se of a cef-lwm-psm line by 18z sunday with top 10snowfall in known history probable for at least 1 of the big 4 climo sites (bos/bdl/orh/pvd) and possibly a top 4 or 5 event for pvd. don t have all the rer in front of me. 

 

21z/21 sref now has pretty high prob for 16" in 24 hrs ri/se ma.

 

the comment on coastal flooding by one of the authors herein is correct and the office is on it and so we will have to wait but despite a normal tide cycle... moderate coastal flooding is watched. i could even see spot major if timing is correct...again if timing of surge/30 ft seas coincides.

 

sleet or rain probable for a time at ack/chh and am pretty confident a gravity wave develops 00z/23 off delmarva and races to vcinty ack by 04z with tstms the key ignitor. eta modeling uvm and wind field plus asstd warming very nicely on this eta has a 6 mb ppp intensification in 3 hrs vcnty 03z/23!!! that has to have a ripple effect on the atmosphere to balance the incredible deepening rate!

 

n of the gwave we could see an hr or 2 of 5"/hr in the 02z-10z sunday time frame! where i dont know... lets just say some stripe in sne. 

 

backside snowgrowth in boston area looks huge sunday morning!...lets see if the model holds it. bos 20-24" possible if we can measure it in the wind.

 

the storm is doing all it can to be compete for historic short term event (bliz of 78 was 3 day)... this is a powerhouse but expanding its time of influence now to 24 hrs imo.

 

a blockbuster is at hand (95 pct certain)...

 

csi banding... plus ku size storm. 18z/21 eta/gfs mass fields now in general agreement -5 ely sd compoent and -2.5 250! 

 

we are now able via superb modeling over the years by the modelers worldwide plus at a minimum through the research efforts by the likes of 

 

grumm/novak/bosart/stuart/archambult (in no particular order) et al....

 

to anticipate a special 24 hr rcord or near record event in parts of sne!

 

what else can be said... for those in our county warning area in sne...follow box/hpc issuances.

 

should see this shut down at least some roads for awhile saturday night/sun morning. will likely see hurricane force wind gusts cape cod (suspect 80 mph) and power outages by wind. again this is my opinion only based on eta wind fields and all the above prediction detectors/cues.

 

i think this will be my last post unless something goes awry or something even more notable comes to mind. i think evertything is well covered by all herein. prob wont write again til something special approaches in the future (another - presuming this one works out- could occur a month from now???? not sure but this is a good winter here in sne) 

 

also...am keeping it in the back of my mind that something always goes a little askew in these outlooked events. just dont know what it is yet. 

 

again...great call by the long rangers writing herein and or on other boards who layed out the potential days ago...

 

Walt

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

This was one of my faves from recent history (this was a post, not an afd. The board of origin is defunct, so I'm not sure about the legalities of posting here):

 

 

 

 

update 11 pm:

 

first off... i think our office is so onto this...superb excellent efforts. not cking anywhere else and that not my business.

 

...

 

again...great call by the long rangers writing herein and or on other boards who layed out the potential days ago...

 

Walt

 

:weenie:;)

 

I grew up reading his AFDs, but I'll always remember him for telling me to find a new career when I was interning at BOX, in grad school. A little pot committed at that point.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted

I just reread the entire Blizz 13 thread, how epic is that, Ryan was close to melting at one point

,CT Rain, on 08 Feb 2013 - 10:05 AM, said:

The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here.

An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been.

He recovered later when the Euro and Ens came out. Can't wait for another super storm super thread

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted

I just reread the entire Blizz 13 thread, how epic is that, Ryan was close to melting at one point

,CT Rain, on 08 Feb 2013 - 10:05 AM, said:

The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here.

An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been.

He recovered later when the Euro and Ens came out. Can't wait for another super storm super thread

 

There was certainly some hair pulling going on. I mean the QPF numbers were pretty unreal, you almost wanted to believe the lower end of guidance. Once the NAM had Euro support, it was time to chuck a few :weenie:

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I just reread the entire Blizz 13 thread, how epic is that, Ryan was close to melting at one point

,CT Rain, on 08 Feb 2013 - 10:05 AM, said:

The actual number is meaningless.. It's the going from 3" to 2" with the late capture/stall that is concerning here.

An historic event is becoming unlikely in CT based on the trends. A great and impressive storm but not like it could have been.

He recovered later when the Euro and Ens came out. Can't wait for another super storm super thread

 

lol that meltdown was nothing compared to Boxing Day - what's the link to that?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted

This is good to see for now. Notice those departures heading further south which is what you want (2nd and 3rd week of october building south of 60N). It looks like the eastern areas will slow a bit in the 11-15 day, but I think western Siberia towards Europe should building quickly at that point. Overall snowpack should look good there.

 

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Isotherm

Isotherm

Posted
Posted

Can't get the H5 reanalysis but per the numerical indices, the 1960-61 winter was largely due to massive +PNA/-EPO ridging in concert with a predominately negative AO (mod-strongly so at times).  This was sufficient in keeping the +NAO induced SE ridge far enough south.

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tamarack

tamarack

Posted
Posted

Dude I posted the Mansfield totals, you had a 62 inch base at the end of March

 

And their snowiest months were March and April.  The COOP reached that 62" on 4/14, but on 3/8 - just before the first large snowfall in 2 months - they had only 12", and had seen only 15 days (Jan 1-5) with more than 25".  Their Feb snowfall totalled 7.5", about half their 2nd lowest for Feb.  I'm guessing that for Feb vacations, Stowe's intermediate and expert terrain (most/all without snowmaking) was mainly boilerplate and ice.  Probably those holdouts who skiied Stowe late had great conditions; mid-winter, the Poconos might've been better.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

Wtf...I wrote something and it disappeared. Trying again. Unc, I'm sure you remember how warm it was up to a few days before the December 11-12 blizzard. I was despondent but ecstasy ultimately rules that winter.

yea it was 60 degrees a week before the December 11th storm...I remember pouring some water on my stoop Sunday when it was 20 degrees to see how fast it would freeze...My family didn't like the idea I made the steps icy but it didn't matter after 3pm when the snow started...A video of me and my sister a week or two after the storm...

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