OceanStWx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Missed that disco. Does earlier or later hatching, then, lead to more brown/red? More black means a later hatch (i.e. longer previous winter). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Gotcha. Thanks, guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 I just took this picture of a wooley bear imby a few minutes ago... Kevin said his are mostly black... is that just due to the heavy, heavy chemicals he uses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Kevin said his are mostly black... is that just due to the heavy, heavy chemicals he uses? Late winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 AIATAs I always thought. November is different. Also, maybe we can get the weak to neutral mild October cool November?about ready to call the pattern change after a big mid October storm, you on the bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted September 30, 2013 Author Share Posted September 30, 2013 AIATAs I always thought. November is different. Also, maybe we can get the weak to neutral mild October cool November?about ready to call the pattern change after a big mid October storm, you on the bus? Yeah just unsure of whether it's 10/15 or 10/25. Very 2002esque October shaping up arguing for around 10/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 30, 2013 Share Posted September 30, 2013 Yeah just unsure of whether it's 10/15 or 10/25. Very 2002esque October shaping up arguing for around 10/15.yes exactly what I was thinking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 1, 2013 Share Posted October 1, 2013 for NYC if December is warm the chances are very good there will be less snow than average...the top 33 warmest Decembers had less snow on average...The only great winter with a mild December was 1957-58 here...last year was slightly below the average for sjnow but we did pick up a 10"+ snowfall...That only happened 6 of the 33 years...only 3 of the 33 winters were above the average seasonal snowfall with a mild December... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Wonder what the correlation maps would look like using warm Octobers, cold November's with SNE winter's. The sites are shut off so maybe someone knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Wonder what the correlation maps would look like using warm Octobers, cold November's with SNE winter's. The sites are shut off so maybe someone knows. without the maps the years with an above normal October and below normal November...2010 just missed... 1947...+6.7 -3.5 1955...+2.9 -3.4 1959...+2.9 -1.9 1968...+3.6 -0.8 1995...+4.7 -4.1 2000...+0.1 -2.4 2010...+1.2+0.2 These were great years in NYC and I think your area...2000 and 2010 are borderline examples... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 Wonder what the correlation maps would look like using warm Octobers, cold November's with SNE winter's. The sites are shut off so maybe someone knows. without the maps the years with an above normal October and below normal November...2010 just missed... 1947...+6.7 -3.5 1955...+2.9 -3.4 1959...+2.9 -1.9 1968...+3.6 -0.8 1995...+4.7 -4.1 2000...+0.1 -2.4 2010...+1.2+0.2 These were great years in NYC and I think your area...2000 and 2010 are borderline examples... Most if lot all above normal snow years for BOS. 1947-8, 1995-6 are #3 and 1 respectively. 2010-11 had the epic 6 weeks. 1968-9 had 2 KUs . 1959-60 had the huge KU in early March. 1955-56 had the epic finish. Wow what a list....no clunkers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Most if lot all above normal snow years for BOS.1947-8, 1995-6 are #3 and 1 respectively. 2010-11 had the epic 6 weeks. 1968-9 had 2 KUs . 1959-60 had the huge KU in early March.1955-56 had the epic finish. Wow what a list....no clunkers!Wow seems pretty sweet, also seems to increase our odds of getting a KU, thanks Unc and Jerry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That list proves that above average Octobers mean nothing for the upcoming winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 That list proves that above average Octobers mean nothing for the upcoming winter! its the warm October cold November correlation list though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Whether it means anything for the winter or not, this rate of recovery in sea ice is fantastic. We ended up tied for 2006 after being in mid ranked with other record years. Also, looping the animations at NIC suggests that the sea ice is nearly making land contact already on the Siberian side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Interestingly enough, 2006 was the last year that had a prolonged period of +AO for the previous several months (late spring onward). My thinking is the lower than normal H5 anomalies over recent months within the Arctic circle have contributed to the rapid sea ice increase, in addition to weak solar variables (though playing a lesser role than the tropospheric pattern). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 without the maps the years with an above normal October and below normal November...2010 just missed... 1947...+6.7 -3.5 1955...+2.9 -3.4 1959...+2.9 -1.9 1968...+3.6 -0.8 1995...+4.7 -4.1 2000...+0.1 -2.4 2010...+1.2+0.2 These were great years in NYC and I think your area...2000 and 2010 are borderline examples... Good list. If one looks at NAO/AO values, the progression of a +NAO/AO October to -NAO/AO November is also a very favorable one for the ensuing winter (correlation coefficient of almost 0.7). The + to - change in arctic / atlantic indices coincides well with the warm to cold progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Good list. If one looks at NAO/AO values, the progression of a +NAO/AO October to -NAO/AO November is also a very favorable one for the ensuing winter (correlation coefficient of almost 0.7). The + to - change in arctic / atlantic indices coincides well with the warm to cold progression.nice, will be interesting to see what transpires in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 nice, will be interesting to see what transpires in November. I found some more years but they weren't that great around NYC... 1920...+4.2 -3.1 1949...+6.2 -1.2 1954...+4.8 -1.1 1971...+5.8 -2.6 2007...+6.7 -2.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 3, 2013 Author Share Posted October 3, 2013 nice, will be interesting to see what transpires in November. I found some more years but they weren't that great around NYC... 1920...+4.2 -3.1 1949...+6.2 -1.2 1954...+4.8 -1.1 1971...+5.8 -2.6 2007...+6.7 -2.3 Well the first 3 were snow clunkers. Overall I like our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Great discussion as always guys. Looking forward to what comes down the road. I will take a mild October if that means we will get rocked through winter. Even living much further south we really need a negative NAO for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Great discussion as always guys. Looking forward to what comes down the road. I will take a mild October if that means we will get rocked through winter. Even living much further south we really need a negative NAO for us.would really be great to have a region wide big winter like 60/61 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 3, 2013 Share Posted October 3, 2013 Love seeing higher precip anomalies aimed at the northeast...means active pattern, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 would really be great to have a region wide big winter like 60/61 Great for I-95 but not sure about the northeast as a region.50% of normal snowfall at BTV and one of the worst mid-winter snowpacks in the mountains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Great for I-95 but not sure about the northeast as a region. 50% of normal snowfall at BTV and one of the worst mid-winter snowpacks in the mountains... image.jpg '60-'61 was horrific for NNE. At least N VT/N NH. '95-'96 is a much better example of a total clobbering for everyone in the northeast...interior/coast/northern/southern...didn't matter. Everyone got theirs at some point...and got it big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 That winter was amazing would love to see another one like it '60-'61 was horrific for NNE. At least N VT/N NH. '95-'96 is a much better example of a total clobbering for everyone in the northeast...interior/coast/northern/southern...didn't matter. Everyone got theirs at some point...and got it big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Really hope we get a Quick start to winter once we hit Nov.Good temps for snow-making and some chances of snow early in the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Really hope we get a Quick start to winter once we hit Nov.Good temps for snow-making and some chances of snow early in the month Welcome! You from LA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LaxSki Posted October 4, 2013 Share Posted October 4, 2013 Thanks for the Welcome from Long Island but have a condo at Mt Snow Vt so I read the New England forum to to gauge my chances of good snow when we head to Vermont.I'm a snow nut like most here and love to be out in it in the mountains because they celebrate it while back home most curse it.Lax is short for Lacrosse both my girls play in college and I used to coach them when the were younger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted October 4, 2013 Author Share Posted October 4, 2013 Thanks for the Welcome from Long Island but have a condo at Mt Snow Vt so I read the New England forum to to gauge my chances of good snow when we head to Vermont.I'm a snow nut like most here and love to be out in it in the mountains because they celebrate it while back home most curse it.Lax is short for Lacrosse both my girls play in college and I used to coach them when the were younger Well you're with snow loving friends (most of us) here. They celebrate it on the Tug as well. Places to visit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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