The early speculation on winter 2013-14

[LaxSki]

I went to college in Oswego N.Y went Tug Hill a few times crazy snow there.Saw many unreal Lake Effect snowstorms that were insane

[powderfreak]

'60-'61 was horrific for NNE. At least N VT/N NH.

 

 

'95-'96 is a much better example of a total clobbering for everyone in the northeast...interior/coast/northern/southern...didn't matter. Everyone got theirs at some point...and got it big.

 

I didn't realize how huge that winter was up here... Mansfield COOP obviously has its issues collecting snowfall, but 95-96 came in around the same ballpark as the epic 2000-2001 winter. 

 

95-96 was 309.6" and

2000-2001 was 310.0". 

 

Usually that's a solid 100" less than reality due to under-catch on the ridgeline, so that's impressive.  2000-2001 was 432" for example and last year the COOP had 170.0" vs my 284" at the 3,000ft snow board.  All it means is that 95-96 was probably huge and I didn't realize how good it was up here.

[Ginx snewx]

Really hope we get a Quick start to winter once we hit Nov.Good temps for snow-making and some chances of snow early in the month

Welcome aboard, Jay Peak is so much fun and what a snow heaven. enjoy.

[Ginx snewx]

I didn't realize how huge that winter was up here... Mansfield COOP obviously has its issues collecting snowfall, but 95-96 came in around the same ballpark as the epic 2000-2001 winter. 

 

95-96 was 309.6" and

2000-2001 was 310.0". 

 

Usually that's a solid 100" less than reality due to under-catch on the ridgeline, so that's impressive.  2000-2001 was 432" for example and last year the COOP had 170.0" vs my 284" at the 3,000ft snow board.  All it means is that 95-96 was probably huge and I didn't realize how good it was up here.

95/96 was fanatastic but the thaw in Jan took out a great pack, would rather have a 60/61 down here with a 95/96 for you. I like my winters long and hard, LOL,( remember the rules!!!!)

[powderfreak]

95/96 was fanatastic but the thaw in Jan took out a great pack, would rather have a 60/61 down here with a 95/96 for you. I like my winters long and hard, LOL,( remember the rules!!!!)

 

I'm having trouble putting 60/61 together... looking at the Mansfield graph, the snow depth goes from near 3 feet on January 1st, and steadily declines to 12" on March 1st.  That's unheard of...literally.  But the thing I can't place is, that's not just "settling" of the snowpack... that's melting.  And if its melting at 4,000ft in northern VT with steady decline for 2 months, what was the pattern like down in I-95?  There must've been some thaws that year or something mixed in with absolutely no snowfall up here.

[Ginx snewx]

I'm having trouble putting 60/61 together... looking at the Mansfield graph, the snow depth goes from near 3 feet on January 1st, and steadily declines to 12" on March 1st.  That's unheard of...literally.  But the thing I can't place is, that's not just "settling" of the snowpack... that's melting.  And if its melting at 4,000ft in northern VT with steady decline for 2 months, what was the pattern like down in I-95?  There must've been some thaws that year or something mixed in with absolutely no snowfall up here.

this is ORH winter snows 20.8 32.4 20.4 17.6, temps For Jan - March 18.7 27.7 33.0, so doubt its melting? bad data?

[nzucker]

I'm having trouble putting 60/61 together... looking at the Mansfield graph, the snow depth goes from near 3 feet on January 1st, and steadily declines to 12" on March 1st. That's unheard of...literally. But the thing I can't place is, that's not just "settling" of the snowpack... that's melting. And if its melting at 4,000ft in northern VT with steady decline for 2 months, what was the pattern like down in I-95? There must've been some thaws that year or something mixed in with absolutely no snowfall up here.

The winter ended after the February 4th HECS that buried NYC metro with 24"+..

[LaxSki]

Our 1st winter at our place in Vermont was 2000-2001 it was a good winter then March came it snowed like crazy.We were up there every weekend you could walk right up to our 2nd story windows at our place. The snowbanks on Rt 9 in southern VT were like you see in PAC northwest mountains. The road reaches 2500 feet in some sections by Hogback and Woodford

[Ginx snewx]

Here are mansfellds 1961 temp averages and monthly snow Nov - April http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/cgi-bin/cliMAIN.pl?vt5416

1961 4.22  15.82  19.27 

  1960-61             16.00   10.70   33.00   32.70   7.50  45.80  44.50 

[Ginx snewx]

Our 1st winter at our place in Vermont was 2000-2001 it was a good winter then March came it snowed like crazy.We were up there every weekend you could walk right up to our 2nd story windows at our place. The snowbanks on Rt 9 in southern VT were like you see in PAC northwest mountains. The road reaches 2500 feet in some sections by Hogback and Woodford

2001 was by far my favorite NNE winter, two massive 3-4 foot storms , one in Feb one in March, epic skiing 

[Ginx snewx]

Mansfield had 193 inches of snow in 60/61 PF

 

here was the average snow depth

 1961 38.00 25.00 46.00 62.00 27.00

[Ginx snewx]

The winter ended after the February 4th HECS that buried NYC metro with 24"+..

uh no

[powderfreak]

2001 was by far my favorite NNE winter, two massive 3-4 foot storms , one in Feb one in March, epic skiing 

 

I don't think we got hit too big with the one in February.... it looks like it was about 12" at Mansfield COOP, but March had 3 whoppers.  That month made that season what it was.... even straight to the end of the month.

 

13.5" on 1" liquid with a snowpack of 132" on March 28th;

724 PM EST WED MAR 28 2001STATION             PCPN  WEATHER   MAX MIN CUR  NEW TTL LIQMOUNT MANSFIELD     1.03    18  12   18 13.5  132

[LaxSki]

2001 was by far my favorite NNE winter, two massive 3-4 foot storms , one in Feb one in March, epic skiing

Same here was dragging my girls thru the snow in the woods because it was so Deep and they were so little but fun it was!!!!!

[powderfreak]

Mansfield had 193 inches of snow in 60/61 PF

 

Hmmm...something funky is going on there.  That snow depth graph is absolutely atrocious and BTV had only like 48" all winter.  But 193" isn't that bad for the COOP considering last season was 170".  I do feel though that the most inconsistent data is with the "new snowfall" as that all depends on how windy the storms are and how much under-catch the 4" rain gauge has.  It usually does ok in heavy wet snowfalls (snow usually falls more straight down) but anything fluffy and it just flies over the top. 

[powderfreak]

Same here was dragging my girls thru the snow in the woods because it was so Deep and they were so little but fun it was!!!!!

 

That was unreal... just storm after storm.  I'm reading back through the AFD's from BTV before those storms.  Even at the end of March things were still rolling for NNE.  You know those patterns where everything breaks right, like models showing precip staying south of the area and then less than 24 hours out come like 50-100 miles north to clobber you.  Then they are just lining up with more significant snowfalls in the extended portion of the forecast.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT340 AM EST FRI MAR 30 2001COORD WITH GYX/ALY/BUF ON UPCOMING EVENT.  WL UPGRADE TO WINTERSTORM WRNG FOR ALL FA EXCEPT ST LAW VLY WHERE ADVSY WL BE ISSUED.LAST NGT IT APPRD HVY PCPN WUD RMN S OF FA BUT 12Z MDLS TRENDED NWDWITH HVY PCPN AND 00Z MDLS HAV CONT THIS TREND.  ANOTHER SGFNT SNWEVENT LKLY FOR FA...ESP HIR ELEV.

<snip>

XTNDD...ETA/AVN SHW NXT UPR LOW DIGG SEWD THRU MIDWST WITH AVNDROPPING LOW TO MID ATL RGN SUN NGT.  ASSCD SCNDRY LOW DVLPS CLS TOTHE CST WHICH WUD BRING ANOTHER POTLY SGFNT SNW EVENT TO FA SUNNGT/MON.

[powderfreak]

Man that March 5-6, 2001 storm was something else... reading the BTV forecasts and discussions for this area from then is giving me goosebumps, haha.

 

 

*************************************************

...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY....TODAY...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TOTAL STORMACCUMULATION...20 TO 36 INCHES. BLUSTERY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW. HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH..TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY...ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONALINCH POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM LATE EVENING ON. LOW NEAR 20.NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

*************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT330 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001REMARKABLE STM CONTS TO ROTATE BANDS OF HVY SNW WWD ACRS VT/NE NY.WV/IR LOOP SHWS DEEP MSTR AND COLD TOPS ROTATING WWD ACRS FA IN DEEPELY FLOW.  KCXX VAD SHWS ELY FLOW UP TO 28K FT!SFC LOW SE OF ACK FCST TO ROTATE WWD THIS AM BFR MVG SWD TAFTN TOCATCH UP WITH UPR LOW.  DEEP ELY FLOW WL CONT THRU ABT 18Z WHICH WLKEEP OCNL HVY SNW GOING INTO ERLY AFTN THEN AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE NEDIREC SNW WL LIGHTEN UP.  GUSTY N/NE WIND WL RSLT IN CONSIDBLOWING/DRIFTG.ETA/NGM IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH POSN OF LOW WHILE AVN FTHR E.  DESPITEFTHR E POSN...AVN QPF HIR THAN ETA.  ETA HAS PERFORMED THE BEST FORTHIS STM SO WL LN TWD ETA QPF WHICH SHWS 0.3-0.6" ACRS MCH OF FA AFT06Z...LESS ST LAW VLY.  GOING WITH 15:1 RATIO WUD YIELD AN ADDITL5-9".  HAV PRETTY MCH MAINTAINED PREV STORM TOTAL ACCUM BUTREARRANGED ZNS A BIT. 

*************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT334 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001SNOWING LIKE CRAZY OUTSIDE AND ITS GOING TO CONTINUE.  IR LOOP OVERPAST HALF HR SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING TOPS AND PLUME OF MSTREXTENDING ACRS ERN LONG ISLAND UP INTO CHAMPLAIN VLY. MORNING'S ETARUN YET AGAIN A LTL FURTHER N THAN LAST RUNS...AND SFC LO TAKES ANIMPRESSIVE TURN TO THE WEST DURG DAY TUES AND LOOPS ARND AS IT GETSCAPTURED BY MAIN UPR CLOSED LO. SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA AND AVN...WTH AVN FURTHER E AFT 24 HRS AND A LITTLE LESS EAGER TO MOVE SFCLOW TO W. WE'LL GET MOST SNOW TONIGHT...AND MDL DIFFERENCES WON'TCOME IN TO PLAY UNTIL TUESDAY.MSTR AND HIGHEST QPF POINTED AT VT THROUGH PD...FIRST FROM SE AS LOAPPROACHES SRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN FM E AS LOW CRANKS AWAY S OF THECAPE. WL GET A GOOD 12 HRS OF STEADY SNOWS OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED SNOW ALTL LATER IN DAY ON TUES WHILE SFC LOW MAKES ITS LOOP...THEN HEADS EON WED.UPPED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. WE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS IN ADDISONVT/ESSEX NY OF 7 INCHES ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED TOTALS UP ACCORDINGLY.

[weathafella]

I'm having trouble putting 60/61 together... looking at the Mansfield graph, the snow depth goes from near 3 feet on January 1st, and steadily declines to 12" on March 1st. That's unheard of...literally. But the thing I can't place is, that's not just "settling" of the snowpack... that's melting. And if its melting at 4,000ft in northern VT with steady decline for 2 months, what was the pattern like down in I-95? There must've been some thaws that year or something mixed in with absolutely no snowfall up here.

The winter ended after the February 4th HECS that buried NYC metro with 24"+..

Yes. I recall going to the dentist around 2/6 with huge snowbanks but a warming sun. It was still the greatest 2 month ride I've experienced. 3 big KUs are nothing to sneeze at!

[weathafella]

The winter ended after the February 4th HECS that buried NYC metro with 24"+..

uh no

Uh yes. I was 14 and remember it well but there were a a few more modest events in Boston vs NYC based on the record. It was an180 pattern change to warm.

[Ginx snewx]

PF I was in Bethel Maine and had the pleasure of measuring an 11 per hour band, sick depths all month

[Ginx snewx]

Uh yes. I was 14 and remember it well but there were a a few more modest events in Boston vs NYC based on the record. It was an180 pattern change to warm.

ORH had 17 in March, winter might have ended on your coast but judging by CNE NNE records it continued inland, in fact Mansfield greatest depth was in March, socks replied to PF and said winter ended 2/4/61, um no not in VT

[weathafella]

Uh yes. I was 14 and remember it well but there were a a few more modest events in Boston vs NYC based on the record. It was an180 pattern change to warm.ORH had 17 in March, winter might have ended on your coast but judging by CNE NNE records it continued inland, in fact Mansfield greatest depth was in March, socks replied to PF and said winter ended 2/4/61, um no not in VT

Well yeah Vermont it ends in May...lol.

[powderfreak]

ORH had 17 in March, winter might have ended on your coast but judging by CNE NNE records it continued inland, in fact Mansfield greatest depth was in March, socks replied to PF and said winter ended 2/4/61, um no not in VT

It looks more like winter started in February and March up here once it ended down there.

That's usually how it happens. Hard for us all to win at once.

[LaxSki]

Man that March 5-6, 2001 storm was something else... reading the BTV forecasts and discussions for this area from then is giving me goosebumps, haha.

 

 Those storms were great and really went all month March 2001 north of Mass/VT border every ride up from L.I was fine then you hit the border and climb in elevation and it was like feet of snow. 2 Thurs nights in a row we sat on Rt9 in Brattleboro VT for 2 hours while they closed the road and plowed the road 40 miles thru the mountains to Bennington VT

*************************************************

...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TOTAL STORM

ACCUMULATION...20 TO 36 INCHES. BLUSTERY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING

SNOW. HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH.

.TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY...ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL

INCH POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM LATE EVENING ON. LOW NEAR 20.

NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

*************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

330 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001

REMARKABLE STM CONTS TO ROTATE BANDS OF HVY SNW WWD ACRS VT/NE NY.

WV/IR LOOP SHWS DEEP MSTR AND COLD TOPS ROTATING WWD ACRS FA IN DEEP

ELY FLOW. KCXX VAD SHWS ELY FLOW UP TO 28K FT!

SFC LOW SE OF ACK FCST TO ROTATE WWD THIS AM BFR MVG SWD TAFTN TO

CATCH UP WITH UPR LOW. DEEP ELY FLOW WL CONT THRU ABT 18Z WHICH WL

KEEP OCNL HVY SNW GOING INTO ERLY AFTN THEN AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE NE

DIREC SNW WL LIGHTEN UP. GUSTY N/NE WIND WL RSLT IN CONSID

BLOWING/DRIFTG.

ETA/NGM IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH POSN OF LOW WHILE AVN FTHR E. DESPITE

FTHR E POSN...AVN QPF HIR THAN ETA. ETA HAS PERFORMED THE BEST FOR

THIS STM SO WL LN TWD ETA QPF WHICH SHWS 0.3-0.6" ACRS MCH OF FA AFT

06Z...LESS ST LAW VLY. GOING WITH 15:1 RATIO WUD YIELD AN ADDITL

5-9". HAV PRETTY MCH MAINTAINED PREV STORM TOTAL ACCUM BUT

REARRANGED ZNS A BIT.

*************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT

334 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001

SNOWING LIKE CRAZY OUTSIDE AND ITS GOING TO CONTINUE. IR LOOP OVER

PAST HALF HR SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING TOPS AND PLUME OF MSTR

EXTENDING ACRS ERN LONG ISLAND UP INTO CHAMPLAIN VLY. MORNING'S ETA

RUN YET AGAIN A LTL FURTHER N THAN LAST RUNS...AND SFC LO TAKES AN

IMPRESSIVE TURN TO THE WEST DURG DAY TUES AND LOOPS ARND AS IT GETS

CAPTURED BY MAIN UPR CLOSED LO. SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA AND AVN...

WTH AVN FURTHER E AFT 24 HRS AND A LITTLE LESS EAGER TO MOVE SFC

LOW TO W. WE'LL GET MOST SNOW TONIGHT...AND MDL DIFFERENCES WON'T

COME IN TO PLAY UNTIL TUESDAY.

MSTR AND HIGHEST QPF POINTED AT VT THROUGH PD...FIRST FROM SE AS LO

APPROACHES SRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN FM E AS LOW CRANKS AWAY S OF THE

CAPE. WL GET A GOOD 12 HRS OF STEADY SNOWS OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED SNOW A

LTL LATER IN DAY ON TUES WHILE SFC LOW MAKES ITS LOOP...THEN HEADS E

ON WED.

UPPED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. WE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS IN ADDISON

VT/ESSEX NY OF 7 INCHES ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED TOTALS UP ACCORDINGLY.

[mitchnick]

 

Man that March 5-6, 2001 storm was something else... reading the BTV forecasts and discussions for this area from then is giving me goosebumps, haha.

 

 

*************************************************

...WINTER STORM WARNING TODAY....TODAY...SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. TOTAL STORMACCUMULATION...20 TO 36 INCHES. BLUSTERY WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTINGSNOW. HIGH IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WIND 15 TO 25 MPH..TONIGHT...SNOW LIKELY...ENDING LATE THIS EVENING. AN ADDITIONALINCH POSSIBLE. MOSTLY CLOUDY FROM LATE EVENING ON. LOW NEAR 20.NORTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 60 PERCENT.

*************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT330 AM EST TUE MAR 6 2001REMARKABLE STM CONTS TO ROTATE BANDS OF HVY SNW WWD ACRS VT/NE NY.WV/IR LOOP SHWS DEEP MSTR AND COLD TOPS ROTATING WWD ACRS FA IN DEEPELY FLOW.  KCXX VAD SHWS ELY FLOW UP TO 28K FT!SFC LOW SE OF ACK FCST TO ROTATE WWD THIS AM BFR MVG SWD TAFTN TOCATCH UP WITH UPR LOW.  DEEP ELY FLOW WL CONT THRU ABT 18Z WHICH WLKEEP OCNL HVY SNW GOING INTO ERLY AFTN THEN AS FLOW BACKS TO MORE NEDIREC SNW WL LIGHTEN UP.  GUSTY N/NE WIND WL RSLT IN CONSIDBLOWING/DRIFTG.ETA/NGM IN GOOD AGRMNT WITH POSN OF LOW WHILE AVN FTHR E.  DESPITEFTHR E POSN...AVN QPF HIR THAN ETA.  ETA HAS PERFORMED THE BEST FORTHIS STM SO WL LN TWD ETA QPF WHICH SHWS 0.3-0.6" ACRS MCH OF FA AFT06Z...LESS ST LAW VLY.  GOING WITH 15:1 RATIO WUD YIELD AN ADDITL5-9".  HAV PRETTY MCH MAINTAINED PREV STORM TOTAL ACCUM BUTREARRANGED ZNS A BIT. 

*************************************************

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT334 PM EST MON MAR 5 2001SNOWING LIKE CRAZY OUTSIDE AND ITS GOING TO CONTINUE.  IR LOOP OVERPAST HALF HR SHOWING RAPIDLY COOLING TOPS AND PLUME OF MSTREXTENDING ACRS ERN LONG ISLAND UP INTO CHAMPLAIN VLY. MORNING'S ETARUN YET AGAIN A LTL FURTHER N THAN LAST RUNS...AND SFC LO TAKES ANIMPRESSIVE TURN TO THE WEST DURG DAY TUES AND LOOPS ARND AS IT GETSCAPTURED BY MAIN UPR CLOSED LO. SOME DIFFERENCES BTWN ETA AND AVN...WTH AVN FURTHER E AFT 24 HRS AND A LITTLE LESS EAGER TO MOVE SFCLOW TO W. WE'LL GET MOST SNOW TONIGHT...AND MDL DIFFERENCES WON'TCOME IN TO PLAY UNTIL TUESDAY.MSTR AND HIGHEST QPF POINTED AT VT THROUGH PD...FIRST FROM SE AS LOAPPROACHES SRN NEW ENGLAND...THEN FM E AS LOW CRANKS AWAY S OF THECAPE. WL GET A GOOD 12 HRS OF STEADY SNOWS OVERNIGHT. EXTENDED SNOW ALTL LATER IN DAY ON TUES WHILE SFC LOW MAKES ITS LOOP...THEN HEADS EON WED.UPPED STORM TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS. WE HAD SEVERAL REPORTS IN ADDISONVT/ESSEX NY OF 7 INCHES ALREADY...SO ADJUSTED TOTALS UP ACCORDINGLY.

and to think on March 2, 2001 Charlottsville, VA was expected to get 18-24"....missed by that much

[powderfreak]

and to think on March 2, 2001 Charlottsville, VA was expected to get 18-24"....missed by that much

When I'm home later I can post the BTV AFD from those days...the forecast was for partly to mostly cloudy like 72 hours prior and the final forecast was for 20-36", lol.

The progression in the AFD's is pretty funny...like big ocean storm stays to our south...then maybe some light snows...then oh sh't we better issue watches...then this will be historic.

[mitchnick]

When I'm home later I can post the BTV AFD from those days...the forecast was for partly to mostly cloudy like 72 hours prior and the final forecast was for 20-36", lol.

The progression in the AFD's is pretty funny...like big ocean storm stays to our south...then maybe some light snows...then oh sh't we better issue watches...then this will be historic.

yep, that storm pretty much sums up life in the MA...the goal post keep getting moved north as the system nears

[CoastalWx]

yep, that storm pretty much sums up life in the MA...the goal post keep getting moved north as the system nears

That storm screwed coastal SNE too, especially near and south of BOS.

[weathafella]

That storm screwed coastal SNE too, especially near and south of BOS.

Not nearly as bad as mitchnick. We got 10 inches by the time it was done at least thanks to the stinger.

[CoastalWx]

Not nearly as bad as mitchnick. We got 10 inches by the time it was done at least thanks to the stinger.

While Ray was 21" deep in mash potatoes. I didn't do as well on the south shore so locally it sucked compared to 35 miles away. Different sort of screwjie compared to what Mitch had. MQE actually did fairly well.