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Mr Allen's Summer Outlook


WEATHER53

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Passed on to me by a friend.

 

Summer:+0.5 to +1.0

Rainfall:10-12"

#90+:45

#100+:1

 

All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0

Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3

 

Analog years:1932,34,60

 

Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April.

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Passed on to me by a friend.

 

Summer:+0.5 to +1.0

Rainfall:10-12"

#90+:45

#100+:1

 

All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0

Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3

 

Analog years:1932,34,60

 

Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April.

Could be wrong, but I believe 45 days of 90+ would be more than BWI had last summer. That would be horrid. Also can't believe we'd have that many 90+ days and only one day of 100 or more.

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Could be wrong, but I believe 45 days of 90+ would be more than BWI had last summer. That would be horrid. Also can't believe we'd have that many 90+ days and only one day of 100 or more.

 

We seem to hit 90 fairly easily now.  But there's a big difference between, say, 91F and 97F, especially with the lows that accompany that kind of heat.  We had an incredible amount of 95+ heat last year - that's what made it so tough to handle.  Hitting 100 isn't so easy, especially if you're not in a pattern that has the ability to produce a lot of upper-90s.

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Could be wrong, but I believe 45 days of 90+ would be more than BWI had last summer. That would be horrid. Also can't believe we'd have that many 90+ days and only one day of 100 or more.

he's talking DCA I believe, which we know can hit 90 easily on a spring or fall day  

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he's talking DCA I believe, which we know can hit 90 easily on a spring or fall day  

I think you're right, but it would still be a little odd to have 45 90+ days and only be 0.5-1+ for the summer.  Possible, but seems hard to do.  Would need lots of those days to be 90-91.

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I think you're right, but it would still be a little odd to have 45 90+ days and only be 0.5-1+ for the summer.  Possible, but seems hard to do.  Would need lots of those days to be 90-91.

 

I think it is possible, but I agree not likely...I think Ian might be able to shed some more light on that...I'm guessing all or most of are 45+ summers were more than a degree above our current norm

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Passed on to me by a friend.

 

Summer:+0.5 to +1.0

Rainfall:10-12"

#90+:45

#100+:1

 

All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0

Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3

 

Analog years:1932,34,60

 

Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April.

 

This had better be for DCA and not BWI, because the two bolded above do not compute... unless you are expecting some extremely wild swings in temperatures.

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Seems like the only way to get aob in summer is to have anomalous clouds and precip. Radiational cooling in the summer seems to be a thing of the past anywhere near pop centers. If we're getting 45 90+, there is now way we end up only .5-1+.

My memeory may be foggy but when we have lots of highs in the 90's we also have lotsa lows in the 70's.

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We seem to hit 90 fairly easily now.  But there's a big difference between, say, 91F and 97F, especially with the lows that accompany that kind of heat.  We had an incredible amount of 95+ heat last year - that's what made it so tough to handle.  Hitting 100 isn't so easy, especially if you're not in a pattern that has the ability to produce a lot of upper-90s.

I agree. There is quite a difference around DC between 92/93 and 98/99, far more in my opinion that the 7 degree difference would indicate. He believes the considerable majority of our 90's will be in 90-94 range.

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June 2012 finished +1.1 and had 11 days of 90+ highs (6 of which were 96+), so as long as you have more variable conditions instead of persistent warmth, 45 days of 90+ and an average of around +1 isn't the hardest thing to do, especially if most of your 90s are on the low side. Having said that, If I was going to put down 45 days of 90+ I'd probably go for at least a +1 to +2 summer just from a statistical standpoint.

This reminds me that I should probably get my summer forecast onto maps... I have the numbers but have been too lazy to get the maps drawn. My DCA anomalies are +2-3 June and July with a +1-2 August.

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Haven't run 90+ days agains temp avgs. Probably worth doing. Given we avg 36 for the warm season 45 might be doable without a huge departure. Tho considering we never have cool overnight lows anymore it could be tough.

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I agree. There is quite a difference around DC between 92/93 and 98/99, far more in my opinion that the 7 degree difference would indicate. He believes the considerable majority of our 90's will be in 90-94 range.

 

That's what I figured when I saw the forecast.  Still...I do agree with the others who have questioned the call of +0.5 to +1 overall considering so many 90+ days.  To me, that would suggest one of two things: 1) Those 90+ days would be somewhat drier and allow temps to cool a little more at night, or 2) he expects relatively cool conditions during a decent chunk of JJA.  Basically, temps would be pretty variable across all three months.

 

Either way, +1 would feel pretty nice considering the last three summers.  And normal rainfall would be pretty nice, too, as long as it doesn't happen all at once.

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Despite the heat last summer my lawn was green from post to post due to the frequent well timed thunderstorms that rolled through.  I would be happy with a repeat this summer.

 

 

MBY missed out on quite a few of those popup storms we had last year, so my lawn suffered quite a bit in the middle of the summer.  I'd like not to have to worry about watering my lawn too much, but I realize that's pretty unrealistic if i want to keep it looking nice.  I was able to keep on top of the garnden, though - that turned out great.  I don't mind watering my garden, but the lawn?  PITA.

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90-94 at DCA means mid-upper 80's here which is about the most I can hope for from summer.

 

This reminds me that I should probably get my summer forecast onto maps... I have the numbers but have been too lazy to get the maps drawn. My DCA anomalies are +2-3 June and July with a +1-2 August.

Yikes !

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  • 2 months later...

Passed on to me by a friend.

 

Summer:+0.5 to +1.0

Rainfall:10-12"

#90+:45

#100+:1

 

All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0

Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3

 

Analog years:1932,34,60

 

Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April.

Looks like June is coming in at about +1.2/+1.3.  I would grade a +0.5 to +1 call as an A-

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  • 1 month later...

Passed on to me by a friend.

 

Summer:+0.5 to +1.0

Rainfall:10-12"

#90+:45

#100+:1

 

All three months will range +0.5 to +1.0

Although an above average summer it will not be as torrid as last 3

 

Analog years:1932,34,60

 

Thinks current cold snap will not break until mid April.

The slow drop in monthly average will bring this into line of being a decent call for July, not great, probably a B/B-. Missing on the rainfall although DCA has been the abberant surplus location this summer and 90+ call rounding into form.
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The slow drop in monthly average will bring this into line of being a decent call for July, not great, probably a B/B-. Missing on the rainfall although DCA has been the abberant surplus location this summer and 90+ call rounding into form.

 

he has done a good job so far....July is our lowest SD month so errors should be a little more penalizing than in winter...but if we drop to say +1.7...I think it is a solid call....in January it would be an A-....a bit lower in Summer

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The slow drop in monthly average will bring this into line of being a decent call for July, not great, probably a B/B-. Missing on the rainfall although DCA has been the abberant surplus location this summer and 90+ call rounding into form.

 

 

this will be a bad call unless August is scorching...We will only have 17 through July

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