March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

[jburns]

Shift the 540 line 1-2 counties south on the GFS and boom for northern foothills / north-west Triad.

Give cows wings and we all will need stronger umbrellas.

[wncsnow]

Looked to me like the EURO was similar in track with the 12Z run, clown maps anyone?

[Local Yokel Wx]

Does anyone live up there? Is there a ski resort? You seem borderline obsessed with a small patch of earth.

 

If you've been to Grandfather, then you might be obsessed too. It's nice to have such easy access (desktop) to extreme wx conditions without having to experience them, however i believe he may work up there. Gorgeous patch of earth.

[DaculaWeather]

If you've been to Grandfather, then you might be obsessed too. It's nice to have such easy access (desktop) to extreme wx conditions without having to experience them, however i believe he may work up there. Gorgeous patch of earth.

Exactly... love places like that. That's one reason I created a whole page for Mount Washington in NH: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_mt_washington.php

[WilkesboroDude]

Looked to me like the EURO was similar in track with the 12Z run, clown maps anyone?

 

1-2 inches far northern NC only...actually lower amounts this run. 6z GFS coming in with more now...1-4.

[Stovepipe]

GFS is showing not one, not two, but THREE dustings for me over the next 7 days.

 

[WX262]

Latest 12z NAM has more precip developing over N AL into N GA tonight. We will see if this helps with giving some of us a dusting of snow before it warms up tomorrow morning.

[Lookout]

 Thanks, Chris, for the very nice compliment! No offense taken at all. You prefer that it not be cold at this time of year. Brick is one who feels similarly. Even though I prefer late cold, you guys and some others not wanting it cold now certainly isn't offensive lol. It is a matter of personal preference, and it is good to state your opinion. OTOH, you made a post a couple of weeks back implying that nobody could possibly like late cold. I replied to that saying I liked it. That was a little different as it implied we all felt the same way as you. Anyway, it is all good between us.

 

I'm happy you didn't take offense Larry. Again, you are the absolute best. The amount of study you put in to it to give us, to our pleasure I might add and certainly fascinating,  has to be incredible. I just think the mid atlantic will benefit the most...although Ark, western tn, etc looks to get a good winter storm today/tonight. (3 to 5 inches in some places).  Ark has had a really great winter. I've lost count on how many winter storms they have had.

 

Anywho, judging by the nam composite reflectivity..where the radar will looks great to the west in ms/al etc and it looks like we are going to get something worthwhile (just check out hours 21 where it is showing quite a bit of precip only for it to fall completely apart and vanish 3 hours later ). So it's going to be painful watching it all dry up as it moves east if the nam is right.  West Ga obviously has the best chance per the model (12z nam actually now shows more precip reaching the ground and even showing accumulation.... congrats dsaur if it is )... and I'm sure there will be some areas that will get more than expected if there are any  bands that  move over the same area.

 

As for areas further east...ugh...is all I got to say. Hard to believe it will dry up that quick so I'm hoping it won't. We'll see I guess.

 

As for the other bold about being cold this late in the year, you are just weird my friend LOL...Unless there is a winter storm, it's just annoying. And if IIRC I said or asked the question that I don't know how anyone could like it..not that anyone doesn't like it (maybe I'm wrong but I'm too lazy to go back to look but that is what I meant to say), because I know weird folks   like you who do like it lol

 

I am impressed, although I hate it,  at how constantly cold/cool it will be for so long this late.

[MotoWeatherman]

12z NAM says ATL is snow until 9am or so.  This could get interesting if the QPF gets ramped up at the last minute like the NAM is showing.  But the NAM is my least favorite model but when precip streaks out ahead of the system like the models are showing, someone usually ends up with a QPF surprise under that "finger" streak. 

 

Date: 21 hour Eta valid 9Z FRI 22 MAR 13Station: ATLLatitude:   33.65Longitude: -84.42-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   156                                                                 SFC  986   274   2.9  -5.7  53  8.6  -0.3  11   1 277.2 277.6 273.6 284.2  2.53  2  950   568  -0.6  -6.1  66  5.5  -2.6 352   5 276.6 277.0 273.3 283.7  2.54  3  900   998  -3.4  -5.5  86  2.1  -4.1 312  11 278.0 278.5 274.5 285.9  2.83  4  850  1450  -2.4  -3.3  94  0.9  -2.7 306  21 283.7 284.3 278.4 293.7  3.53  5  800  1932  -2.4  -2.7  98  0.3  -2.5 283  26 288.6 289.3 281.3 299.9  3.93  6  750  2442  -4.9  -5.5  96  0.6  -5.1 267  30 291.3 291.9 281.8 301.2  3.39  7  700  2982  -7.3  -8.1  94  0.8  -7.6 268  29 294.4 294.9 282.7 303.3  2.97  8  650  3558  -9.1 -10.0  93  0.9  -9.4 277  28 298.7 299.2 284.2 307.1  2.75  9  600  4174 -11.5 -12.7  91  1.2 -11.9 278  30 302.8 303.2 285.4 310.3  2.40 10  550  4838 -14.7 -16.3  88  1.5 -15.2 276  40 306.6 307.0 286.4 312.8  1.95 11  500  5553 -18.9 -20.8  85  1.9 -19.4 274  48 309.9 310.2 287.0 314.7  1.45 12  450  6329 -24.5 -26.8  81  2.3 -24.9 270  53 312.4 312.6 287.3 315.7  0.95 13  400  7175 -30.9 -33.6  77  2.7 -31.2 267  64 314.9 315.0 287.7 316.8  0.56 14  350  8107 -39.0 -42.1  72  3.1 -39.2 263  68 316.1 316.2 287.8 317.1  0.27 15  300  9142 -47.7 -53.4  52  5.7 -47.9 263  75 318.1 318.2 288.2 318.5  0.09

 

 

Date: 24 hour Eta valid 12Z FRI 22 MAR 13Station: ATLLatitude:   33.65Longitude: -84.42-------------------------------------------------------------------------------LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg-------------------------------------------------------------------------------  0 1000   160                                                                 SFC  986   273   0.5  -1.2  88  1.7  -0.2  83   3 274.8 275.4 273.7 284.4  3.54  2  950   570  -2.1  -3.4  91  1.2  -2.6  40   5 275.0 275.5 273.2 283.6  3.13  3  900  1001  -0.3  -1.4  92  1.1  -0.7 298  15 281.2 281.8 277.6 291.9  3.84  4  850  1458  -0.9  -1.6  94  0.8  -1.2 268  30 285.2 285.9 279.8 296.6  3.99  5  800  1940  -3.5  -4.2  95  0.7  -3.7 266  34 287.5 288.1 280.3 297.6  3.51  6  750  2448  -5.8  -6.6  94  0.8  -6.1 276  32 290.3 290.8 281.1 299.4  3.11  7  700  2987  -7.3  -8.9  89  1.6  -7.9 289  25 294.4 294.9 282.5 302.7  2.78  8  650  3563  -8.5 -11.1  81  2.6  -9.4 286  22 299.4 299.9 284.2 307.2  2.53  9  600  4181 -11.1 -13.6  82  2.5 -11.9 290  27 303.3 303.7 285.4 310.3  2.23 10  550  4844 -14.8 -17.4  81  2.6 -15.6 284  34 306.5 306.8 286.1 312.2  1.77 11  500  5559 -19.2 -21.8  80  2.6 -19.8 281  53 309.6 309.8 286.7 314.0  1.33

[GaWx]

Chris,

Thanks for the compliment! Analogs are a great tool if used appropriately.

Lol, I have opinions about a lot of things that are often atypical and am not ashamed to make this one (liking late cold) known. I actually enjoy being different, weird, atypical, etc. . There's not too much cookie-cutter about me lol.

Moto,

So, even the NAM, which often overdoes QPF, has RH at only up to 88% at KATL at 8 AM EDT as opposed to, say, 95%+. Isn't it a bad sign if even the usually too wet NAM is only up to 88%?

[Brick Tamland]

Key phrase.

 

 CLIMATOLOGY AND PATTERN RECOGNITION STRONGLY SUGGEST THAT IT WILL TAKE A STRONG ENOUGH SURFACE HIGH (IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION) TO ALLOW ANY SUCH STORM TO DELIVER ANYTHING MORE THAN A VERY COLD RAIN IN LATE MARCH FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A COLD RAIN EVENT OVER THE WEEKEND... WITH THE FAVORED STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF CENTRAL NC.

 

Awesome. We didn't have enough cold rain during the winter.

[Brick Tamland]

Meanwhile, it's snowing in Henderson, just to the north of me. The schools there are letting out early.

 

[MotoWeatherman]

Chris,

Thanks for the compliment! Analogs are a great tool if used appropriately.

Lol, I have opinions about a lot of things that are often atypical and am not ashamed to make this one (liking late cold) known. I actually enjoy being different, weird, atypical, etc. . There's not too much cookie-cutter about me lol.

Moto,

So, even the NAM, which often overdoes QPF, has RH at only up to 88% at KATL at 8 AM EDT as opposed to, say, 95%+. Isn't it a bad sign if even the usually too wet NAM is only up to 88%?

Oh yeah of course.  But my reference was that the QPF has ramped up a bit on the NAM.  Not that it had all that much to begin with but it did increase a bit.  If they get anything more than a few flakes, I'll be surprised at this point in time.  12z GFS pretty much supports that idea.

[Snowless in Carrollton]

Gotta love the NWS. This is my forecast for tonight:

 

A chance of snow and sleet before 5am, then a chance of snow

 

15 miles to my west in Alabama this is their forecast :

 

A 50 percent chance of rain after 1am

[jburns]

 Thanks, Chris, for the very nice compliment! No offense taken at all. You prefer that it not be cold at this time of year. Brick is one who feels similarly. Even though I prefer late cold, you guys and some others not wanting it cold now certainly isn't offensive lol. It is a matter of personal preference, and it is good to state your opinion. OTOH, you made a post a couple of weeks back implying that nobody could possibly like late cold. I replied to that saying I liked it. That was a little different as it implied we all felt the same way as you. Anyway, it is all good between us.

I'm happy you didn't take offense Larry. Again, you are the absolute best. The amount of study you put in to it to give us, to our pleasure I might add and certainly fascinating,  has to be incredible.

 

Oh my. I recommend Motel 6. They'll keep a light on for you no matter how late the Euro comes in.

 

[Tacoma]

Awesome. We didn't have enough cold rain during the winter.

I'd rather they say confidence is increasing on a winter storm.

[WilkesboroDude]

12z GFS let's take it and run. Take everything verbatim don't look into the details.

[Tacoma]

are the models still showing a trend to the south with the weekend storm.  reading that late last night the models were trending south, hopefully this trend will continue.  maybe the models are starting to catch on to the strong blocking that is suppose to be happening......Or is the strong blocking not really there just like most of the winter.

 

 

First full day of spring and our schools were on a two hour delay, I woke up this morning and the ground was covered with snow.  I just cut the grass last night so I went from the pretty green grass to a solid white this morning.  It is so cold outside the snow is still on the ground.

[Tacoma]

12z GFS let's take it and run. Take everything verbatim don't look into the details.

well  as usual this winter looks like Buncombe County is in a snow hole.

[Cold Rain]

12z GFS let's take it and run. Take everything verbatim don't look into the details.

I'm in. That even has snow for me.

[GaWx]

 Thanks, Chris, for the very nice compliment! No offense taken at all. You prefer that it not be cold at this time of year. Brick is one who feels similarly. Even though I prefer late cold, you guys and some others not wanting it cold now certainly isn't offensive lol. It is a matter of personal preference, and it is good to state your opinion. OTOH, you made a post a couple of weeks back implying that nobody could possibly like late cold. I replied to that saying I liked it. That was a little different as it implied we all felt the same way as you. Anyway, it is all good between us.

I'm happy you didn't take offense Larry. Again, you are the absolute best. The amount of study you put in to it to give us, to our pleasure I might add and certainly fascinating,  has to be incredible.

 

Oh my. I recommend Motel 6. They'll keep a light on for you no matter how late the Euro comes in.

 

 

 

 1) burns,

  Lol, I assure you it is all platonic. I don't play for that team.

 

 2) Moto, the 12Z Goofy looks colder and wetter to me tomorrow  for the ATL area overall  vs. the prior three runs. It actually has slightly below 0 850's in the northern ATL suburbs as of 8 PM on Friday with precip, still falling and has the 2 PM 2 meter temp.'s 14 F colder than the 12Z run of yesterday there. This at least makes it a bit more interesting.

[packbacker]

Awesome. We didn't have enough cold rain during the winter.

 

LOL.  If we get a big 34F and rain I am literally going to lose it, this will be the all time worst winter in history for our area, this bone chilling cold is only good if it snows, in late March it's salt in the wound.

[dsaur]

I love how the Nam points the sleet finger right at me.  I don't much like that the Rap and Gfs have a rain finger instead.  I'm guessing the Nam speaks Mole, and is attuned to the thrumming, like sailors to the sirens call.  At least it's only 48 degrees at present...much better than the hot sunny days recently.  Looking forward to a cold spring, and a short summer.  Next winter will knock our recent horrors into the memory void....and it's starting now.  I vote for anomalous cold well into the far future.  T

[DaculaWeather]

I'm guessing the RAP and GFS give you the middle finger Tony? 

[Snowless in Carrollton]

From what I gather reading the Hazardous Weather Outlook from FFC, they are thinking most of the moisture will be west and south of Atlanta with any accumulation limited to possibly areas of West Georgia.

[DaculaWeather]

Don't think they really know yet, which is one reason a Winter Weather Advisory hasn't been issued.

[GaStorm]

Surprised the dewpoint is so low here. Only 7 degrees at this hour. Maybe that will play a factor with evaporative cooling tomorrow?

[DaculaWeather]

Yep, you can see mine is about 10º right now. As long as there is enough moisture to moisten it up, we'll be good.

[GaStorm]

Yep, you can see mine is about 10º right now. As long as there is enough moisture to moisten it up, we'll be good.

No doubt. That 54 high that NWS has for me has huge bust potential tomorrow!

[dsaur]

Steve, the climate has given me the finger for years now, lol. Kind of like your kind offer the let me sit in the jeep..when it's parked, with no keys in it

The last time I had a good sled was in 05.  I have hopes though that a warming earth will lead to anomalous extremes, and I'll get a hammering of the sleet kind any year now   And the big sign I'm looking for is a cold spring, short summer, and cold fall, with accumulations of ip/sn in Nov.  Then we'll be cooking, and the finger will be forgotten, lol.  Meanwhile, it's only 50, so the rain won't have to do so much cooling to get me what I want....as long as the clouds don't come in too early.   T