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March 21-26 winter storm threats: best SE opportunities of season?

GaWx

By GaWx,
in Southeastern States

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POWERSTROKE

POWERSTROKE

Posted
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I don't think there should be any concern.  Most feel there will be a storm.  However if anybody is excited this far out then you will have a major letdown come Sunday if there is no storm.  I believe we have all learned there is nothing to be excited about until 24-48 hours out.  Models have been all over the place all year so I doubt they are trustworthy now even with the so called GREAT BLOCKING!  I will bet storm will be back on models today and if not then its no different than what we have already had.

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

Although the blocking is still strong on the 24/25th it starts to weaken rapidly on the 24th, which is why this will move north, now that doesn't mean it can't still be south of us and than move north after that but odds are this will be another NE winter storm. You might as well pencil in 10" for Boston.

For reference, the 6z run of the GFS mean has the following for the -AO...

3/23: -5+

3/24: -4.5

3/25: -3.75

3/26: -2.5

It is interesting the GFS is weakening the blocking a lot slower on todays runs, today's 6z GFS mean has the following for the AO, and the 0z run was very similar. Also, the NAO is stronger on todays runs than yesterdays runs for the 25/26, the GFS Ens mean has the NAO at -4 for the 25th.

3/23: -5+

3/24: -5+

3/25: -4.9

3/26: -4.2

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Lookout

Lookout

Posted
Posted

I don't think there should be any concern.  Most feel there will be a storm.  However if anybody is excited this far out then you will have a major letdown come Sunday if there is no storm.  I believe we have all learned there is nothing to be excited about until 24-48 hours out.  Models have been all over the place all year so I doubt they are trustworthy now even with the so called GREAT BLOCKING!  I will bet storm will be back on models today and if not then its no different than what we have already had.

 

Good post and totally agree.

 

Yeah, we might get some light snow or flurries here (georgia and maybe south carolina)  thursday night/through mid morning friday but it's so light the models aren't even showing precip reaching the ground. I'm sure some will but it won't be much due to a dry boundary layer. Yes it's unusual to see any wintery precip at all this late but this "historic and great blocking" will likely lead to two things. Snow for the mid atlantic/DC  "***BARF***(words can't describe how much I hate that)  and a constant eastern trough and  annoying cold for this time of year for a long time.

 

Just to be clear by no means I mean absolutely  no disrespect  toward my friend larry and his incredible work/statistics..there is simply NO ONE better on this board when it comes to climo and statistics..he is truly amazing. Someone said, I think, the nws should hire him and I totally agree. So please Larry, don't take offense to this post, if you read it :):wub::hug:

 

  At any rate, I love cold weather but I hate it this time of year (unless there is really a good winter storm..which of course is highly unusual.) I always have and always will.

 

So, again, what we are left with is just annoying and dry cold/coolness...while VA northward reaps all the benefits of this "great blocking". The snow for the mid atlantic and dc, along with a persistent cold and dry eastern trough this late late in the year is just is sickening to me. I'm ready for 70s for highs..but instead we get 50s and 30s and dry...again barf.

 

I will say this, NC does at least have a chance.

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superjames1992

superjames1992

Posted
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Just a matter of time before the Euro caved to the GFS. Looks like the weather here this Sunday is going to be miserable again with more chilly rain. I wish we had a time machine and could just jump to May.

 

The Euro didn't really cave to the GFS.  It's just a different solution that is a failure.  The Euro is a weak system and it quickly moves OTS once it transfers to the Atlantic.  Almost no precip.

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packbacker

packbacker

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The Euro didn't really cave to the GFS. It's just a different solution that is a failure. The Euro is a weak system and it quickly moves OTS once it transfers to the Atlantic. Almost no precip.

Agreed! Even though I am a GFS defender, I think it's wrong with what it's showing, the blocking is for real and it should be further south, I don't know if it will be south enough for us, but I think the GGEM might be the "most" right at this stage, but I still think this may tick a little further south than models are showing, once the energy in comes in from the PAC and dives south it should head due east, IMO. We will see, long way to go, hopefully someone get's a late season winter storm.

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K4CF

K4CF

Posted
Posted

Agreed! Even though I am a GFS defender, I think it's wrong with what it's showing, the blocking is for real and it should be further south, I don't know if it will be south enough for us, but I think the GGEM might be the "most" right at this stage, but I still think this may tick a little further south than models are showing, once the energy in comes in from the PAC and dives south it should head due east, IMO. We will see, long way to go, hopefully someone get's a late season winter storm.

If the GGEM verified with a slight move south, that would be nice indeed for many folks on here

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GaWx

GaWx

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Good post and totally agree.

 

Yeah, we might get some light snow or flurries here (georgia and maybe south carolina)  thursday night/through mid morning friday but it's so light the models aren't even showing precip reaching the ground. I'm sure some will but it won't be much due to a dry boundary layer. Yes it's unusual to see any wintery precip at all this late but this "historic and great blocking" will likely lead to two things. Snow for the mid atlantic/DC  "***BARF***(words can't describe how much I hate that)  and a constant eastern trough and  annoying cold for this time of year for a long time.

 

Just to be clear by no means I mean absolutely  no disrespect  toward my friend larry and his incredible work/statistics..there is simply NO ONE better on this board when it comes to climo and statistics..he is truly amazing. Someone said, I think, the nws should hire him and I totally agree. So please Larry, don't take offense to this post, if you read it :):wub::hug:

 

  At any rate, I love cold weather but I hate it this time of year (unless there is really a good winter storm..which of course is highly unusual.) I always have and always will.

 

So, again, what we are left with is just annoying and dry cold/coolness...while VA northward reaps all the benefits of this "great blocking". The snow for the mid atlantic and dc, along with a persistent cold and dry eastern trough this late late in the year is just is sickening to me. I'm ready for 70s for highs..but instead we get 50s and 30s and dry...again barf.

 

I will say this, NC does at least have a chance.

 

 Thanks, Chris, for the very nice compliment! No offense taken at all. You prefer that it not be cold at this time of year. Brick is one who feels similarly. Even though I prefer late cold, you guys and some others not wanting it cold now certainly isn't offensive lol. It is a matter of personal preference, and it is good to state your opinion. OTOH, you made a post a couple of weeks back implying that nobody could possibly like late cold. I replied to that saying I liked it. That was a little different as it implied we all felt the same way as you. Anyway, it is all good between us. :)

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The GFs made a huge shift away from its Lakes Cutter solution. It is now a legitimate Miller B.

 

Agreed, it's not done shifting, IMO, we will see, I find it hard to believe with stronger blocking than March 6 that it ends up transferring further north, but we will see.

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burgertime

burgertime

Posted
Posted

When you have to rely on the UK MET for some backside snow there is a serious problem. Euro has a double barrel low look with snow in KY and everyone in NC out of the game. Not feeling this one at all. 

 

As for the Euro...yes it does show 850's cold enough but moisture is so light I have a hard time buying it would over come sfc temps. Just my two cents. 

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packbacker

packbacker

Posted
Posted

The Euro looks really close.  In fact, it may show some wintry precip over NC, but I don't know for sure without the precip maps.  It looks pretty similar to the 12z run yesterday at 500 mb.

 

EDIT: Thanks, Larry.

Agreed, I wish I was in Richmond though. The blocking is off the charts, we just need a tick south, quicker transfer.

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Jon

Jon

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Posted

When you have to rely on the UK MET for some backside snow there is a serious problem. Euro has a double barrel low look with snow in KY and everyone in NC out of the game. Not feeling this one at all. 

 

As for the Euro...yes it does show 850's cold enough but moisture is so light I have a hard time buying it would over come sfc temps. Just my two cents. 

I'd have to agree. At face value, the Euro would be snow for the VA boarder and up, leaving NC out of the party. This solution does look probable and nothing about this run of the Euro screams "throw it out"...

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