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The March 25-March 32 HECS potential


Ji

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Its always fun to look at model snow ;)  How much fake snow are we looking at?  4-8?

 

yeah most of the area.. 8-12 east of the bay. of course it almost all comes during the day from backlash. :-/

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IIRC, the Euro snow maps were pretty off for us on the 3/6 storm too, right? Like close-in, didn't they move the 4"+ zone eastward across DC?

 

yeah they were especially along the gradient. tho this hits pretty much everyone. the low bombs then sits there and backlashes us nicely. not sure i buy that still.. or that we go from almost no snow at 12z to a lot of snow at 0z with temps above freezing. either way it's 10:1 so you probably chop in half at least if you want to buy it.

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It does put down .5"+ in 6 hours east of the bay from 18z to 0z. Two panels of .25"+ for DC/Balt and east during the day.

 

Perhaps one of the least likely ways to get a good snow event here.

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yeah they were especially along the gradient. tho this hits pretty much everyone. the low bombs then sits there and backlashes us nicely. not sure i buy that still.. or that we go from almost no snow at 12z to a lot of snow at 0z with temps above freezing. either way it's 10:1 so you probably chop in half at least if you want to buy it.

Ian, post some precip totals please.  It's so frustrating trying to make heads or tails out of the Euro.  I think I might pay next year.  What's the most reasonable site with the best data?

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This should make everyone happy:

 

DCA:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.9    -4.3    1003      97      99    0.16     536     534    MON 18Z 25-MAR   1.9    -3.7    1000      93     100    0.32     531     531    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.1    -5.9    1005      94      99    0.31     532     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR  -0.1    -4.9    1007      94      96    0.03     535     529  

 

IAD:

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   0.6    -5.0    1003      93      99    0.11     535     533    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.1    -4.6    1001      87     100    0.22     531     530    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.0    -6.1    1006      96      99    0.19     532     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR   0.0    -5.0    1007      96      91    0.02     535     529   

 

Congrats Mitch (rates may actually work here):

 

 

MON 12Z 25-MAR   1.4    -4.4    1003      92     100    0.12     537     534    MON 18Z 25-MAR   2.0    -3.4     999      96     100    0.44     532     532    TUE 00Z 26-MAR   1.5    -5.9    1004      91      98    0.54     531     528    TUE 06Z 26-MAR   0.7    -5.2    1006      88      93    0.04     534     529   
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Ian, post some precip totals please.  It's so frustrating trying to make heads or tails out of the Euro.  I think I might pay next year.  What's the most reasonable site with the best data?

.5"+ for just about everyone. .75"+ from about 30 miles NW of 95 and east. 1"+ almost to DC/BWI and east.. all of DE and eastern MD 1"+. .5"+ goes up into southern PA.

Sfc low gets captured just about perfectly for spots east.

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I enjoyed your presentation and I'm glad that the MEG has at least given us a forum for communication between EMC and some of the other centers (particularly you guys at WPC and SPC). 

 

It has become pretty obvious this winter that the "dominant ptype" stuff leaves a lot to be desired and we really need to look at other things.  Even in the 3/6 case where the NAM was too cold, there were clues that there were going to be issues (i.e. model output of % of frozen precip. being more in the 40-50% range).  Hopefully we can get the Ferrier microphysics working in the GFS, so we can start pursuing more sophisticated algorithms (especially as we push the global to higher resolutions).

I enjoyed WxMan's detailed explanation regarding computer modeling. I actually looked up Ferrier microphysics and read a presentation presented to the EMC which described the Ferrier schema as being far more efficient computationally. If you remember, I made a smart-ass comment regarding "governement programmers" after the 3/6 bust (and apologize if I ruffled feathers), but I have to admit this stuff you guys are doing is fascinating.

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The one thing the euro didn't do that I was hoping for was bringing in heavier waa earlier at night. Depending on how things shake out in the hours after sunrise, maybe the surface cooperates a little better. Probably not but we did just have freezing temps during daylight. 

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Ian, post some precip totals please.  It's so frustrating trying to make heads or tails out of the Euro.  I think I might pay next year.  What's the most reasonable site with the best data?

I think Storm Vista has the best maps but Accuweather Pro has better data, someone please correct me if I am wrong.

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Here's what I don't like about the euro run - at the height of the precipitation (18z), the 32F dew point line is basically Warrenton to Leesburg to Westminster. 

 

Probably hug the Euro warm bias.. at least till it loses this solution.

 

Otherwise, we might get to enjoy mod snow at 36 that slushes the grass.

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What's the issue?

 

Warm.  Basically putting in a base on temps.  The nice part about Monday was that we could actually drop during the snowfall.  Now, we didn't get jack for precip, but at least it was snow and had the opportunity to stick.  If we are 34 with a late March midday sun, we are SOL for accumulations outside of a quite heavy band.

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Good news:  yay, it's friday night...I can actually stay up and wait for the 0z Euro

 

Bad news:  It's Friday night and   I'm single,  anticipating waiting up for a weather model.   :axe:

I heard Tyson Beckford is coming over around 2 a.m. so you should be fine ;) .

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