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Ji

The March 5-7 White Lion Obs/Nowcasting Thread

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Anyone doin a gfs pbp for next weeks threat?

GGEM all the way

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Btw rap has a superband at 3am with .45" liquid in an hour over Rockville

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Justin Berk has given himself a C as a forecast grade. He gave himself a B for the suburbs of Baltimore where he predicted 6-10 inches of snow. Anyone have that?

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I appreciate it but apparently it's mostly for entertainment purposes only. It's been a whole lotta typing and no shoveling.

Perhaps Next winter will be awesome...I look forward to future analysis and lots of shoveling (for my son).

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Btw rap has a superband at 3am with .45" liquid in an hour over Rockville

The rivers of melting slush should take care of that for me. I'll sleep

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Normally the weather Gods don't usually inflict more than three horrific winters in a row. So that's 11/12, 12/13...shoot! Well I'll toss in 10/11, which sucked except for the January event, and even that wasn't terribly impressive in the city proper. Next winter shall be very good one then

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Normally the weather Gods don't usually inflict more than three horrific winters in a row. So that's 11/12, 12/13...shoot! Well I'll toss in 10/11, which sucked except for the January event, and even that wasn't terribly impressive in the city proper. Next winter shall be very good one then

I hate to say it, but we have time. ~7 year cycles is the new norm around here. 1996, 2003, 2010. 2017 is going to be rocking.

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Justin Berk has given himself a C as a forecast grade. He gave himself a B for the suburbs of Baltimore where he predicted 6-10 inches of snow. Anyone have that?

Everyone likes to spin but coming out and saying you were too deterministic in a tricky situation and made a mistake is fine. A few people will b tricked into thinking your forecast verified if it did in their backyard but over time the game gets figured out. He is known pretty far and wide for being a snow weenie to the 100th degree.

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It ain't what it's cracked up to be, Bob. If you like a totally sloppy mess everywhere, you'd be thrilled. Spring snow is only fun while it's snowing. It sucks as soon as it stops. And if you didn't even see 80% of it fall and it cost you an hour or two of work just to be able to leave the house, it sucks even worse.

I need to come up there and shovel your entire town. I have at least seven Jebman shovels. No more slop.

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I was led astray by the psuhoffman storm. That was another marginal event where I scored bigtime -- 14 inches. I even made it through the lull with sleet and no rain. Were the temps very different in this one?

 

temps were crashing during the day during that one, and may have even got to freezing.  in this storm, i don't think they even dropped to feezing last night, at least in my neck of the woods and actually rose during the day today.  i also don't think it was 100% snow last night.

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I guess everybody has a letdown feeling with this storm. Somebody will say how can you be let down with an 11.5 inch snow? Well, it goes to two things which for me ended up being the same thing. What I was hoping for was an all day mod-heavy snow. I never wanted 20 inches or even a foot. I was hoping for about 6" that fell over about an 8 hour period. Then I hoped it melted the next day. I like to watch it snow. Well what I got was 9" by 7am (over performer btw) and then 2.5 more by about 9:30. So, I got to see snow for a couple daylight hours, and spend about an hour and a half plowing the driveway and shoveling the walks and deck.

The early part of the storm was great. Forecast of 3-5 turned into 9. The part I wanted, the all day long, was what fell apart. I knew as soon as the precip took on the ne-sw direction back here that it was over. We were too far from the low at that point. We only do really well back here with precip coming from the south, be it sw, se, or just s. Precip with a northerly component to its direction just won't work this far west and this close to the mountains. Feb 10, 10 is a perfect example of that. It's like the low wound itself up too quickly for the long duration event back this way.

Now I hope winter is over. It was a tough year, much tougher for some than for me. We can all look ahead to next year with hope. One fun part for me has been hanging around this forum and being able to share thoughts with so many outstanding people.

 

Coming from someone in the SE, I'm not sure if you're mentally deficient or just worse than Brick.  I'll go with the first.  Congrats!  You have successfully made your run for WOTY on various other sites, including Twitter.

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Those forecasts were plain wrong. “This was the biggest bust in the history of the Capital Weather Gang,” said The Washington Post’s chief meteorologist, Jason Samenow. He said the major mistake was to accept computer models that said the amount of moisture in the storm would make up for the warmth of the air below.

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Those forecasts were plain wrong. “This was the biggest bust in the history of http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang'>the Capital Weather Gang,” said The Washington Post’s chief meteorologist, Jason Samenow. He said the major mistake was to accept computer models that said the amount of moisture in the storm would make up for the warmth of the air below.

Much of that article (where the above quote is from) is painful to read. A few gems...

"But Bowers, who has worked for the system for three decades, said he might have reached a different conclusion years ago. In the 1980s, Montgomery never shut down, he said. Bowers remembers a convoy of plow trucks heading up Interstate 270 to clear a path for buses to pick up sixth-graders who had been stranded at an outdoor education camp for a week.

“We’ve gotten wimpier,” he said."

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Ah, yes, the ole "back in my day, we'd walk to school in blizzard conditions with temperatures below zero and with no coat, hat, gloves, or shoes! " leaving aside the fact that I'm not even sure about the validity of his statement, does he not remember the traffic disaster that was Jan 26, 2011?

The next gem:

"“We made our decisions based on, unfortunately, faulty weather predictions,” said Pedro Ribeiro, spokesman for D.C. Mayor Vincent C. Gray (D). “You can’t really blame the government officials for using the data the scientists gave them.”

Ribiero said media forecasts “did tend to hype it up a little bit, but what we look at is the data. We have to take that as valid.”"

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There certainly appears to be some blame going on here because the "scientists were wrong!!!" Can't blame us, blame the "faulty weather predictions" made by the scientists!

Another....

"As ever, the same decisions that drive some people to distraction seem perfectly sane to others. Adam Eidinger, a publicist in the District and father of a third-grader, skipped work to stay home with his daughter and said closing schools was “a complete overreaction to the weather that’s actually been encouraged by a culture of laziness. . . . Working families are terribly burdened by this. So why does the government feel like it can just shut down?”

Eidinger suggested a simple rule: Close only if there are at least three inches of snow."

-------–---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Is this guy serious? Yeah, closing schools and the federal government based on a forecast of 6-10" is all about laziness! Why does the government feel like they can do whatever they want, such as close due to a snowstorm, in order to protect their employees and look out for their safety? What gives them the right to make sure that we don't get hurt trying to come in to work during a major storm? Pure laziness, that's all! (Please note the sarcasm :) )

Also, that's a nice simple rule...but the forecast WAS for more than 3". Is he suggesting that we should have sent kids to school and employees to work only to bring them back in the middle of a storm once his arbitrary 3" mark was reached? Solid plan!

There is more, but I think I'll stop there. The stupidity and blatant ignorance of the general public when it comes to anything weather related always boggles my mind. Yeah, I'm biased because I'm a weather weenie/nerd/whatever, but even if I were not, I would like to think I'd be reasonable enough not to make some of the stupid comments people, like those quoted above, have made. Not to forget all the "well, the weathermen were wrong again! The only profession where you get paid to be wrong more than half the time!" lines that people who have absolutely zero knowledge about the weather like to throw out as they pat themselves on the back for what the think was an awesome joke.

Anyway, sorry for the rant, I was a bit mean ( :( ), and maybe this belongs in the banter thread, so please move if needed ;) Here is the link to the full article for those interested:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/snowquester-bust-decision-to-close-schools-and-offices-made-before-flakes-fell/2013/03/06/9a58b8ee-8687-11e2-999e-5f8e0410cb9d_story_2.html

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Final Clarksburg Obs:  3.2".  1.9" from the WAA and 1.3" from one of the longer duration bands that came thru around noon.  All other moderate to heavy bands throughout the day would not stick on the board.  Pic is over in the pic thread.  Pretty sad overall result.

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Everyone likes to spin but coming out and saying you were too deterministic in a tricky situation and made a mistake is fine. A few people will b tricked into thinking your forecast verified if it did in their backyard but over time the game gets figured out. He is known pretty far and wide for being a snow weenie to the 100th degree.

Right.

I don't have any criticisms for any of the mets who got this wrong. For some aspects of this bust, hindsight certainly looks better sure, but this storm looked a lot like the NAM as it was arriving.

My problem with Berk is that he made over 10 tweets and multiple Facebook posts during the "storm" and not once did he change his outlook. He just hoped the changeover would verify his totals which didn't happen.

I just don't see what's so hard about saying "I missed this on" and moving on.

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I guess everybody has a letdown feeling with this storm. Somebody will say how can you be let down with an 11.5 inch snow? Well, it goes to two things which for me ended up being the same thing. What I was hoping for was an all day mod-heavy snow. I never wanted 20 inches or even a foot. I was hoping for about 6" that fell over about an 8 hour period. Then I hoped it melted the next day. I like to watch it snow. Well what I got was 9" by 7am (over performer btw) and then 2.5 more by about 9:30. So, I got to see snow for a couple daylight hours, and spend about an hour and a half plowing the driveway and shoveling the walks and deck.

The early part of the storm was great. Forecast of 3-5 turned into 9. The part I wanted, the all day long, was what fell apart. I knew as soon as the precip took on the ne-sw direction back here that it was over. We were too far from the low at that point. We only do really well back here with precip coming from the south, be it sw, se, or just s. Precip with a northerly component to its direction just won't work this far west and this close to the mountains. Feb 10, 10 is a perfect example of that. It's like the low wound itself up too quickly for the long duration event back this way.

Now I hope winter is over. It was a tough year, much tougher for some than for me. We can all look ahead to next year with hope. One fun part for me has been hanging around this forum and being able to share thoughts with so many outstanding people.

 

It wasnt a bad year for us. We hit climo after yesterday. I just feel awful for the rest of the group to the east. 2 years in a row of a pathetic winter. It cant be awful 3 years in a row. It just cant.

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Post mortem in northeastern Burke:

 

Just a hair under 4" of really, really wet snow.  We finally went to light rain sometime in the late afternoon, but we had miraculously been all snow (of varying intensity) throughout most of the day.  We got most of our accumulation with the WAA at night, and perhaps that dropped enough snow to cool the boundary layer just enough to keep the marginal stuff as snow.  Either way, except under the heaviest bands, it was mostly white rain during the day - though that'd admittedly better than watching plain rain fall.  It's also amazing the damage the March sun can do to snow - especially on blacktop and concrete - when air temps are at or just above freezing.

 

Such a strange frickin' storm.  And while this was a marginal bust in my backyard, I feel awful for those who didn't see any snow, and for the region in general.  We truly, truly suck at winter.

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It ain't what it's cracked up to be, Bob. If you like a totally sloppy mess everywhere, you'd be thrilled. Spring snow is only fun while it's snowing. It sucks as soon as it stops. And if you didn't even see 80% of it fall and it cost you an hour or two of work just to be able to leave the house, it sucks even worse.

 

I kinda agree with you. If 11 inches of snow is not gonna get me out of work. The hell with it. My highest snowpack yesterday (if you can call it that) was 11.5 inches. I am now down to about 6. The roads are clear. So basically I invested at least 100 hours of my life tracking a worthless event.

 

Edit: And this is first time in my life I had a snow over 6 inches and did not have to shovel it. The tire tracks in my driveway exposed enough concrete to melt the majority of the snow off of it. I guess thats a bonus.

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It wasnt a bad year for us. We hit climo after yesterday. I just feel awful for the rest of the group to the east. 2 years in a row of a pathetic winter. It cant be awful 3 years in a row. It just cant.

 

That's about 99% of the reason I felt let down yesterday.  March snows are tough to get super excited about because of the temps/sun.  No matter how good it is, it's going to be gone in a flash.  MN Transplant was talking about how it sucked to hear dripping during a snow storm.  That's a reason by March, I don't care nearly as much.  I got excited this time because I thought it would be region wide heavy snow event.  Falling snow.  Folks who had not seen much snow.  I woke at 4 am yesterday and the first thing I did was check DC obs.  Before I even looked out the window.  I so wanted them to get a good snow.  And then they didn't.  You combine that with the fact that I saw about 10% fall of what actually fell here, and there's my reasons that yesterday just wasn't that much of a thrill.  People here know that they have seen me write many times that I'm not in love with big snows.  I'd gladly trade them for multiple snows that snow all day.

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That's about 99% of the reason I felt let down yesterday.  March snows are tough to get super excited about because of the temps/sun.  No matter how good it is, it's going to be gone in a flash.  MN Transplant was talking about how it sucked to hear dripping during a snow storm.  That's a reason by March, I don't care nearly as much.  I got excited this time because I thought it would be region wide heavy snow event.  Falling snow.  Folks who had not seen much snow.  I woke at 4 am yesterday and the first thing I did was check DC obs.  Before I even looked out the window.  I so wanted them to get a good snow.  And then they didn't.  You combine that with the fact that I saw about 10% fall of what actually fell here, and there's my reasons that yesterday just wasn't that much of a thrill.  People here know that they have seen me write many times that I'm not in love with big snows.  I'd gladly trade them for multiple snows that snow all day.

 

If we weren't in the middle of an epic snow drought I wouldn't have cared nearly as much. I saw this as a last hope streakbreaker. Thought it was a lock. That's been my focus for months. Break the damn streak already. It's becoming embarrassing. 

 

The fact is that I haven't used a snow shovel since Jan 2011 and my kids have only used the sleds to scrape off an inch of snow on the local hill. Within an hour it was sledding on more grass than snow. Very sad. 

 

My kids were way bummed yesterday. I kept telling them to hold on until we had at least a good covering. Gave up around 11 and said have at it. They came back soaked and muddy in an hour. If I could have just gotten 4" of glop it would have made the kids' day. 

 

I don't think anyone can deny that the dc-baltimore corridor is an absolute snow embarrassment to every other subforum on this board. We are the expected division bottom dwellers. No playoffs, no upsets, no winning seasons, just epic fail. Maybe we get first draft pick next season and sing up El Nino for a multi year contract. 

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This may belong in the banter thread, if so, please move it there. However, this storm bust has put a spotlight (once again) on something I began noticing 13 years ago when I moved from Columbia to Middle River. And, from what I've been reading on these boards for the last few years, those who live on the Eastern side of Harford, Balt, AA, and Calvert County experience the same frustration.

 

The disparate forecasts Mt. Holly and Sterling release to the public needs to be addressed.

 

I posted the comment below yesterday a little before noon:

 

As the crow flies, the distance between Middle River (Western Shore) and Still Pond (Eastern Shore) is 15 miles.   Baltimore Inner Harbor to the Eastern Shore is 25 miles.

Yet take a look at the forecasts below from Sterling and Mt. Holly.

 

Middle River

  • This Afternoon Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Patchy fog. High near 35. Windy, with a north wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

  • Tonight Snow, mainly before 3am. Areas of fog before 9pm. Low around 33. Breezy, with a north wind 17 to 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Still Pond

  • This Afternoon Rain before 4pm, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 41. Windy, with a north wind around 26 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

  • Tonight Snow, mainly before 4am. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 32. Breezy, with a north wind 20 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

 

The differences noted above occur frequently, not just in the winter, but throughout the entire year. The past 2 years, during the Summer months, bay-side areas often reached Excessive Heat Warning criteria, while the other side of the County, further inland, did not.

 

Sterling already has Baltimore County split into Northern and Southern portions. In my very humble opinion, maybe they should split counties on the Bay into Western and Eastern portions. 

 

Or, since Mt. Holly apparently has a better understanding of Bay-side dynamics thanks to the Delaware Bay, maybe they should be forecasting for the areas along both sides of the Chesapeake Bay; West to the I-95 corridor and South to... Annapolis/Bay Bridge area?  *shrugs, I dunno, just tossing it out there*

 

post-3461-0-49399900-1362672406_thumb.jp

 

As far as this storm bust, and the fallout from it, I believe the general public would have preferred the usual quotes of "depending on where you are, you may see just rain, a melting mix of snow/rain, or high accumulations of very wet snow."  Instead, it became a runaway train of 5-11 inch or higher accumulation maps splashed onto TV screens, the LWX automated map, the individual area text forecasts and internet sites. 

 

As far as those who are defending the forecasts, the LWX and TV Mets by saying the general public should understand how complicated the models were; think if it this way.  If someone comments that you have an anomalous looking mole on your back, who are you going to go to first,  to have it checked it out?  Likely a GP, maybe during a yearly physical.  In turn, he/she will send you to a Dermatologist much more familiar with skin cancer than he or she is. That Dermatologist is relied upon by the general public to possess the knowledge and tools needed, to determine if the mole is benign or needs to be biopsied for possible malignancy.  (That example takes into account the patient is not a fearful hypochondriac, addicted to self diagnosing at WebMD.com.)

 

Expecting the general public to understand Meteorology by some sort of osmosis, is like expecting me to speak Spanish fluently tomorrow, because I'm having dinner at Chevys Mexican restaurant tonight.

 

And yes, I'm aware MANY of you already understand why the public is angry about the bust :hug: , but a few people don't seem to get it.

 

Muchas Gracias  ;)  And my apologies for blathering on about something that isn't likely to change any time soon.

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If we weren't in the middle of an epic snow drought I wouldn't have cared nearly as much. I saw this as a last hope streakbreaker. Thought it was a lock. That's been my focus for months. Break the damn streak already. It's becoming embarrassing. 

 

The fact is that I haven't used a snow shovel since Jan 2011 and my kids have only used the sleds to scrape off an inch of snow on the local hill. Within an hour it was sledding on more grass than snow. Very sad. 

 

My kids were way bummed yesterday. I kept telling them to hold on until we had at least a good covering. Gave up around 11 and said have at it. They came back soaked and muddy in an hour. If I could have just gotten 4" of glop it would have made the kids' day. 

 

I don't think anyone can deny that the dc-baltimore corridor is an absolute snow embarrassment to every other subforum on this board. We are the expected division bottom dwellers. No playoffs, no upsets, no winning seasons, just epic fail. Maybe we get first draft pick next season and sing up El Nino for a multi year contract. 

 

That's another reason I felt so bad yesterday.  If I could have given all the snow to you guys down there, I would have gladly done so.  But we will be back here next year doing the same thing.  And we might just have reason to smile from Dec to Feb.  You never know.

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That's another reason I felt so bad yesterday.  If I could have given all the snow to you guys down there, I would have gladly done so.  But we will be back here next year doing the same thing.  And we might just have reason to smile from Dec to Feb.  You never know.

 

Ji and me are going to track to post frontal southern slider and then the vigorous clipper after that. Next week's gonna be rockin!

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I think one problem with how it evolved was that initial WAA band that was supposed to really crank, ran way out ahead of the upper level system and lost its support.  This really killed its ability to become a super band, instead it was just 8 hours of light to moderate precip.  I don't think the models, the globals anyways, did badly with the second half of the storm.  They were all hinting the storm would go through that messy transition and that banding would become more spotty the second half of the storm.  Problem was we should have all had 4-8" of snow by then and with a colder boundary due to dynamic cooling we could have then picked up a few more inches in bands and it might have worked out.  That initial band running out ahead and weakening really pulled the rug out of this system.  It just never got its act together. 

 

 

I'm not even sure what it's called-- but in LYH and ROA it was 50 degrees at 5 PM when the WAA started (even as sleet in ROA) and was snowing by 9PM- Tons of cold air wrapped in tightly as that second low popped over central NC. I think that killed the WAA in general.

 

** edit to say** this was HOURS ahead of schedule. Changeover these places was progged for 4 am or so-- most data. Maybe 1-2 am on the Euro.

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I was led astray by the psuhoffman storm. That was another marginal event where I scored bigtime -- 14 inches. I even made it through the lull with sleet and no rain. Were the temps very different in this one?

The difference was in that storm the H5 low was wound up much more tightly, and it passed a lot closer, basically over central VA, allowing us to get a nice 6 hour period of consistently heavy snow.  The WAA stuff on the front end we got lucky in that it came in way ahead of schedule and before the coastal got going and destroyed the thermal profile.  We were a bit lucky in that the first part ran out ahead into the cold air, then the coastal took forever to get going, and we mostly had a lull during the time when we would have had temp issues, then the back end blew up due to the bombing low and the H5 taking a perfect track.  This time the low was not amping it was actually occluding and going through a redevelopment period, so no super bands and disorganized mess.  That is not good when you need dynamic cooling to overcome crap surface temps.  We just needed a better organized stronger storm, this crapped out on us. 

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