NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 00zNAM3-5-13QPFtotal.gif Who's the lucky person in that 2.5 QPF spot down in VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Who's the lucky person in that 2.5 QPF spot down in VA? King George County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Has us around 1.5 qpf all snow. I think we're in a good spot. Maybe not as good as elevations in nw va but about as good a location in md. sorry I'm on my phone or I wouldn't ask. Hows cecil county looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 is that a picture of snow from a jail cell? Its the best I could get zoomed in on MS Paint without distorting it too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Still flurries/showers through noon Thursday. This is just a crazy storm at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Soundings are good at all times near DC except very borderline at 09z. The NAM is a snow bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very good run for all of us in MD and DC. Still need to look at soundings but 850s look much better. Still maybe a little bit of a mix on the onset, but this run looked nice For DC it looks to be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 King George County Yeah they might have some mixing issues early on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Feel bad for the Jersey shore. This would be a historic event any other year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Very good run for all of us in MD and DC. Still need to look at soundings but 850s look much better. Still maybe a little bit of a mix on the onset, but this run looked nice All snow at DCA after hr 39 per soundings MN_Transplant beat me to it and agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Spring snow is about rates not duration. March 2001 was 48hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 84hr precip map an 18z nam clone except for some patches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/cloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 DC is still getting near 1" hr rates 24 hrs after the onset. The 00Z NAM has just over 1" of liquid QPF for DCA AFTER 18Z Wed...from 18Z Wed through 12Z Thursday. That's one inch AFTER midday Wednesday, at which point the system bombs and any mixing/rain issues come to an end for the Metro region. I'll take that right now...without having to see what's behind door #2 (GFS) or #3 (ECMWF) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 nam is snow at bwi verbatim. dca too. minor mixing really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone is blitzed on the NAM. I wonder how overdone the qpf is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vinylfreak89 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone is blitzed on the NAM. I wonder how overdone the qpf is? doesn't the NAM tend to overdo QPF early on? I do notice some weird features that indicate some convective feedback issues on all the models, but I don't think the NAM is really overdone at this point in terms of QPF. For an example of those issues I mentioned, a super band develops near RIC on the hires NAM and diminishes the deform band to the north. Very rarely do you see the deform band move around that drastically in 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Really tough call for LWX as far as the RN/SN line. With this much QPF, the right temperature profile or lack thereof will make a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Everyone is blitzed on the NAM. I wonder how overdone the qpf is? Good question. If this is NAM deadly range, can QPF be trusted? I thought so, but I'm sure someone else can clarify that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in I haven't checked but I am guessing the GFS is probably an outlier with its significantly more amped up solution? I haven't compared pressures model by model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 IAD SREF plume. Gotta love the one outlier at 29", and the mean at 15" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in you're absolutely right, all the players are within the NAM domain (not dealing with any boundary condition issues with a regional model, especially with a quasi-static block in the the NE)...you could argue its QPF is high but most of the globals have precip max in a similar range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Good question. If this is NAM deadly range, can QPF be trusted? I thought so, but I'm sure someone else can clarify that... Well the NAM and GFS have had the same QPF output the last couple of runs. The difference between the two is the temp profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 NAM pretty in line with other models. Wouldn't discount it too heavily at this pt. may actually have a better temp profile to believe in I believe the NAM should be the model of choice right now. One, it's been absolutely rock steady, and I think it is usually best with temps in close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 IAD SREF plume. Gotta love the one outlier at 29", and the mean at 15" And the lowest ones so close to 10".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Time for GFS fun? Rooting hard for NAM temp profiles... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Anyone have NAM totals for CHO? Hard to tell From the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 5, 2013 Share Posted March 5, 2013 Looks slightly weaker through 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.