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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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The trough still seems too progressive and any lead vort can develop a low which would make the system overall even more progressive. The ridge and trough out west is pushing east and our trough as well. I wouldn't say it's impossible for a notable storm to develop from this but we'd want the energy to dig further west and the overall pattern to be less progressive.

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The trough still seems too progressive and any lead vort can develop a low which would make the system overall even more progressive. The ridge and trough out west is pushing east and our trough as well. I wouldn't say it's impossible for a notable storm to develop from this but we'd want the energy to dig further west and the overall pattern to be less progressive.

This can all be easily solved with a complete, clean phase. If that happens it's bombs away. I'd like to see the H5 pattern on the Euro/NAM combine with the potency of the GFS.

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The trough still seems too progressive and any lead vort can develop a low which would make the system overall even more progressive. The ridge and trough out west is pushing east and our trough as well. I wouldn't say it's impossible for a notable storm to develop from this but we'd want the energy to dig further west and the overall pattern to be less progressive.

Wrong thread?

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Because of climo?

Yes, that would be my primary reason that this would be a rain event for NYC.    All the other stuff like computer models of upper air patterns, surface low formation, tracks, cold air source, blocking and what have you are outliers and long shots at this time of year for a trace of snow in NYC IMO.   Anyway, it does make for good and interesting conversations.   

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Yes, that would be my primary reason that this would be a rain event for NYC.    All the other stuff like computer models of upper air patterns, surface low formation, tracks, cold air source, blocking and what have you are outliers and long shots at this time of year a trace of snow in NYC IMO.   Anyway, it does make for good and interesting conversations.   

Look at Sandy and the snowstorm a week after Sandy. Climo doesn't really mean much anymore around here. If the pattern is right, it will snow.

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Look at Sandy and the snowstorm a week after Sandy. Climo doesn't really mean much anymore around here. If the pattern is right, it will snow.

Okay, we shall see  :snowwindow:

It is four days out and that's a way to go in the weather forecasting world even with all our computing power and advances.

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Okay, we shall see  :snowwindow:

It is four days out and that's a way to go in the weather forecasting world even with all our computing power and advances.

and what makes it even more complicated its very early in the season with marginal conditions - so snow/rain lines will not be determined until just prior to the event.............

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JB's latest public winter update - he says this is a " big ticket" winter but actually it is nowhere near last winters temp or snowfall here considering most of the metro was over 200 % of normal snowfall and colder ...........

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast

Yeah 200% of normal snowfall and at my station anyway, the coldest Dec-Mar, since 1978...almost impossible to beat that combo.
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JB's latest public winter update - he says this is a " big ticket" winter but actually it is nowhere near last winters temp or snowfall here considering most of the metro was over 200 % of normal snowfall and colder ...........

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/public-winter-14-15-forecast

he's backing down a bit...earlier posts suggested a repeat of last year

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he's backing down a bit...earlier posts suggested a repeat of last year

Not true . Minu 2 and 133 % of normal for the area was and still is his forecast for the area .

The only thing he changed was he took his Minus 4 from the SE back into the Midwest .

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Not true . Minu 2 and 133 % of normal for the area was and still is his forecast for the area .

The only thing he changed was he took his Minus 4 from the SE back into Midwest .

Agreed i remember him saying taking into account all factors hes going for in between a normal to an extreme 77-78 scenario. Hence why it is 133% snowfall accumulations. this forecase is very sensible and saying "big ticket winter" shows that it can attain 77-78 status if all ducks fall in line properly for us

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Chris Sowers - 6ABC
 

 

The October snow cover (image #1) is now the third highest in the last 50 years exceeded only by last year and 1976. The central based, weak El Nino (image #2) is just about to begin. All seems to be going according to plan for another cold winter across the United States. MY thinking is that January could end up being a wild month around here. That's saying something too because January is already the coldest and snowiest month of the year to begin with.

 

 

10624972_697448697013469_566099635883018

 

10458393_697450947013244_671018094299483

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Agreed i remember him saying taking into account all factors hes going for in between a normal to an extreme 77-78 scenario. Hence why it is 133% snowfall accumulations. this forecase is very sensible and saying "big ticket winter" shows that it can attain 77-78 status if all ducks fall in line properly for us

Does Every mid winter storm have to be '96 or PD 2 ? , Every Oct snow have to be '12  ?, Every winter have to be '77- '78 ?

Cold and snowy should be this yrs theme , but use 0 and 30 inches as a baseline in NYC . So a minus 2 and 40 inches , would be a great winter . And I say great because i lived through the 80`s and minus 2 and 40 is really good my spoiled friends trust me . 

 

Not everything is the extreme ...

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Does Every mid winter storm have to be '96 or PD 2 ? , Every Oct snow have to be '12  ?, Every winter have to be '77- '78 ?

Cold and snowy should be this yrs theme , but use 0 and 30 inches as a baseline in NYC . So a minus 2 and 40 inches , would be a great winter . And I say great because i lived through the 80`s and minus 2 and 40 is really good my spoiled friends trust me . 

 

Not everything is the extreme ...

Thank you.

 

i still can't believe people said last winter wasn't one of the great ones because we didn't get a 96 or 2003 level storm

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Does Every mid winter storm have to be '96 or PD 2 ? , Every Oct snow have to be '12 ?, Every winter have to be '77- '78 ?

Cold and snowy should be this yrs theme , but use 0 and 30 inches as a baseline in NYC . So a minus 2 and 40 inches , would be a great winter . And I say great because i lived through the 80`s and minus 2 and 40 is really good my spoiled friends trust me .

Not everything is the extreme ...

Agree and they're is a reason why 77'-78', 95'-96' and so on are so rare. Last winter was great and historic IMO, yes we missed "the big one" but we still got a ton of accumulated snowfall compared to average and the cold made it that much more impressive. When was the last time we got a snowstorm with temps in the single digits??

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There were a few last year that said it was just " good " . Just laughed .

I think I was one of those people. Change over problems galore right at the coast. If I were 15 miles north up in the north shore hills it was great for sure. There were two storms where they had double what I had. Best example was the big dump we had a quick 7 inches and then pouring rain. 15 miles north it stayed all snow and 16 inches. Again very localized. In fact jm land aka long beach had even less then here 5 inches in that storm if I remember correctly.

Throw on the march misses and at least around here you have a good not great winter

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I think I was one of those people. Change over problems galore right at the coast. If I were 15 miles north up in the north shore hills it was great for sure. There were two storms where they had double what I had. Best example was the big dump we had a quick 7 inches and then pouring rain. 15 miles north it stayed all snow and 16 inches. Again very localized. In fact jm land aka long beach had even less then here 5 inches in that storm if I remember correctly.

Throw on the march misses and at least around here you have a good not great winter

 

You probably have more of a legitimate gripe then. Although I will say most great winters have near misses that would have made them even greater.

 

93-94 for example had those back to back ice storms in early January that initially looked like big snow events, 1/2/96 was a snow to sleet event that produced heavy snows not too far away. Just imagine had that been a a significant storm just days before the blizzard

 

2010-11 was so close to being a disaster with places 30 miles west of NYC getting 1/4 the amounts for the 12-26/27 event...and of course we all know what happened on 2/6/10 that could have made 09-10 an epic winter instead of just an above average one

 

Last year's misses burned because in all the cases they initially looked like big hits for us so they stung moreso when they went so far south. But it made up for the storms that looked like misses that slammed us earlier in the winter so in a way it balanced out.

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I think I was one of those people. Change over problems galore right at the coast. If I were 15 miles north up in the north shore hills it was great for sure. There were two storms where they had double what I had. Best example was the big dump we had a quick 7 inches and then pouring rain. 15 miles north it stayed all snow and 16 inches. Again very localized. In fact jm land aka long beach had even less then here 5 inches in that storm if I remember correctly.

Throw on the march misses and at least around here you have a good not great winter

You didn't even have to go 15 miles north. You were raining in Wantagh south of Sunrise and I was snowing just north of the Southern State in North Merrick.

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Larry Cosgrove just issued his winter forecast. He is calling for a very cold and active winter with a lot of blocking and snow. He is calling for below normal temps from November -March with an active eastern seaboard track. He thinks that February will be the worst month with cold and a lot of snow.He thinks winter will last well into March.

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Larry Cosgrove just issued his winter forecast. He is calling for a very cold and active winter with a lot of blocking and snow. He is calling for below normal temps from November -March with an active eastern seaboard track. He thinks that February will be the worst month with cold and a lot of snow.He thinks winter will last well into March.

Would you happen to have a link available?

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Would you happen to have a link available?

he very rarely includes a link in any of his 20,919 posts so far  - just have to trust his third hand information

 

Here is Larry's twitter link - still searching for the winter forecast which he released today

 

https://twitter.com/LarryCosgrove

 

 

Also - something to think about -how much more readable would these threads be if some posters didn't have 10 times the amount of posts then most anyone else participationg here ???

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In September 1966, a meteorologist named Harry Geise, announced on CBS-TV there would be a major snowstorm on December 24th-25th, 1966 in New York City. Everyone made fun of him. "It's impossible to forecast a snowstorm three months in advance!" Well, on December 24th-25th 1966, New York City and surrounding areas received approximately 7-17 inches of snow. I remember watching this at the time...

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In September 1966, a meteorologist named Harry Geise, announced on CBS-TV there would be a major snowstorm on December 24th-25th, 1966 in New York City. Everyone made fun of him. "It's impossible to forecast a snowstorm three months in advance!" Well, on December 24th-25th 1966, New York City and surrounding areas received approximately 7-17 inches of snow. I remember watching this at the time...

I still remember that snowstorm here in Central NJ - 7 inches during the day christmas eve - my old sled broke that morning so I got an early christmas gift down at the local hardware store - remember them ? - still have the sled - to old now to use it - heck even the kids are too old now to use it - :sled: - anyways JB is calling for a possible severe nor'easter - so get the sleds and ski's waxed

 

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/527635631837839360

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