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Vendor, Blog and TV Channel Forecasts Thread


earthlight

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You're Pauly G the blog observer right? He's mentioned you a couple times in his videos and posts w/ shout-outs to Monmouth County.

 

I like JB. He's entertaining, straight-forward, and has very good pattern recognition skills. His major flaw is a tendency to search for the extreme solution or promulgate that idea in a forecast. I actually think he's better at longer term than individual storms for the most part. Undoubtedly a cold/snowier/extreme bias, but if you adjust for that, there's definitely some solid science behind his reasoning. It's difficult to find a meteorologist who has mastered the art of objectivity, and I'd wager to say virtually everyone has a bias, to varying degrees, with regards to forecasting. Since meteorology is such an inexact science, it's quite easy to find data that supports a particular bias and thus forecast accordingly w/ said data as back-up.

Yes .  NO G .  He def has an extreme and cold bias and he freely admits it . But it has come at his own demise . 

 

His CEO has even asked him not to wade into the GW debate but he can`t help himself because he loves the fight .

Back in April , he said man this is 09 - 10 all over again .  But he and D`aleo  pulled the core back west a bit to their commercial clients last week and at the american wx conference Sat . 

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Yes .  NO G .  He def has an extreme and cold bias and he freely admits it . But it has come at his own demise . 

 

His CEO has even asked him not to wade into the GW debate but he can`t help himself because he loves the fight .

Back in April , he said man this is 09 - 10 all over again .  But he and D`aleo  pulled the core back west a bit to their commercial clients last week and at the american wx conference Sat . 

Pulled the core of the cold back west?  Does that mean more like last year's setup cold wise?

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Pulled the core of the cold back west?  Does that mean more like last year's setup cold wise?

His Minus 2 are still east of the Rockies all the way into S New England ( You are under that )  His Minus 4 Are centered from the plains into the Ohio Valley .  133 perc of snow here 167 % Just west of the Appalachians .

ALL IN ALL COLD WITH  ABOVE NORMAL SNOW .

 

There initial forecast centered Minus 4 into the SE States .  

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His Minus 2 are still east of the Rockies all the way into S New England ( You are under that )  His Minus 4 Are centered from the plains into the Ohio Valley .  133 perc of snow here 167 % Just west of the Appalachians .

ALL IN ALL COLD WITH  ABOVE NORMAL SNOW .

 

There initial forecast centered Minus 4 into the SE States .  

Interesting-b/c if it were a 9-10 repeat, the SE states would be cold with all the blocking (and New England warmer).   NOAA has this in their outlook and I remember thinking looks similar to 9-10.

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Interesting-b/c if it were a 9-10 repeat, the SE states would be cold with all the blocking (and New England warmer).   NOAA has this in their outlook and I remember thinking looks similar to 9-10.

JB orig thought 09 - 10 SE centered , but changed it about 2 weeks ago . 

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Yes .  NO G .  He def has an extreme and cold bias and he freely admits it . But it has come at his own demise . 

 

His CEO has even asked him not to wade into the GW debate but he can`t help himself because he loves the fight .

Back in April , he said man this is 09 - 10 all over again .  But he and D`aleo  pulled the core back west a bit to their commercial clients last week and at the american wx conference Sat . 

 

Despite some of my posts, I dont dislike JB, I just have issues with him (as some have said) with him either grasping the extreme idea and sticking with it or finding some obscure model (CMA, etc) to validate what he is thinking. He is indeed stubborn, but as a fellow Italian, I know where he is coming from....

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Despite some of my posts, I dont dislike JB, I just have issues with him (as some have said) with him either grasping the extreme idea and sticking with it or finding some obscure model (CMA, etc) to validate what he is thinking. He is indeed stubborn, but as a fellow Italian, I know where he is coming from....

I could do without the AGW stuff.   I think that has driven more than a few people from his pay site.

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I could do without the AGW stuff.   I think that has driven more than a few people from his pay site.

 

Well, that too and I'm not liberal either. 

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Wow JB's saturday atmospheric avenger makes it difficult for you to NOT get excited for this winter. Many great points made regarding whats going to be happening the next coming month to set us up for this winter. I know some are wary of JB but hes been doing a pretty good job forecasting this pattern and showing the models adjusting to what he is saying. Food for thought for sure folks

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Wow JB's saturday atmospheric avenger makes it difficult for you to NOT get excited for this winter. Many great points made regarding whats going to be happening the next coming month to set us up for this winter. I know some are wary of JB but hes been doing a pretty good job forecasting this pattern and showing the models adjusting to what he is saying. Food for thought for sure folks

Not to pile on the guy, but i have been following this stuff since maybe 2002, and I am pretty sure he has forecast one warm winter for the east in that time.   Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong about that. 

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JB thinks the winter will be colder and snowier then he originally thought

 

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-october-25-2014

Didn't he already think it was going to be a very cold and stormy winter? How much worse could it actually be and also way to up the hype ante JB. All of the METs seem to be really confident in a cold, snowy winter but just imagine the repercussions if things turn out the opposite if anything goes wrong. 

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I guess very soon the ground is going to be the same color of new Fruit of the Loom "Tidy Whities" out of the package. By the end of the winter it starts looking like "used" tidy whities. Let's get the lingering leaves and stubborn impatiens shriveled up by 11/1/2014.

Here he is! JB's prodigal son has cometh to deliver hype! :lol:

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Meteorologist Joe Cioffi

 

Remember folks this is the first weekend of November. That being said this is an impressive shot of cold air. European would imply a pretty good snowstorm for interior central and northern New England with snow showers south and to NYC and Long Island. However being that the gfs has been a been of a trendsetter lately, Joe thinks this may shift south in subsequent runs. Todays midday run should be FASCINATING! (note..joe uses the word 'fascinating" as code).
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Meteorologist Joe Cioffi

 

Euro is trending in the direction of the GFS so for snow lovers you may view this as encouraging. Surface low on the euro is pretty far out but remember the gfs has development under the upper low that forms to the west. So there in likes the key question and that is..is the gfs correct in deeping a low fairly close to the upper low that is forming to the southwest of NYC. Big Big question. Still the Euro imlplies some snow on the back side. And the trend is your friend.
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Not to pile on the guy, but i have been following this stuff since maybe 2002, and I am pretty sure he has forecast one warm winter for the east in that time.   Please feel free to correct me if I am wrong about that. 

Correct...he's gone warm once since 2000.  And busted horribly in 01-02, 05-06 and 11-12 when we saw historic warmth

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Well in general, it's incredibly difficult and rare to get accumulating snow late October/very early November. As we've found though, it is not impossible. In most cases, situations like this come close sometimes but don't pan out. Just like severe thunderstorm situations. I would never discount the possibility after experiencing what we have the past several years, but it's always good to remember that it is extremely rare. If we get nothing, we didn't get robbed. If we get something, we will have gotten very lucky

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QUICKY COMMENT ON GFS

 

October 28 12:01 PM

 

Too Weak, too far south, expect sub 540 one contour upper low to track through Ohio , then south of Mason Dixon line, then intensify as low pressure on Va capes feedback.

Carry on, and fear not

From everyone`s favorite punching bag ..... 

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