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klw

NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread IV

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30 second exposure reveals absolutely nothing at this time.

 

I am a photographer and have been waiting for a clear moonless night to take a time exposure over Newfound Lake of the NL.  Seems everytime (like last night) I find out after the fact.  I hoped that after the moon set at midnight that there might be something but I guess not.  Just noted the K index went down to 5.  Oh well.  Thanks for the info!

 

Gene

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50 degree difference!

LOL! Just commenting on this today at the St. Patrick's Day party I was at in Woodbury. Close to 2' of snow on the ground, back roads frozen solid and temps in the mid teens when I left. Felt like January. What a difference a year makes!

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Current Thinking: As of 10:10pm 3/17 prior to 0z suite.

In Vermont-
BTV: 6-10"
Stowe: 10-14"
Rutland: 6-10"
Montpelier: 9-13"
Newport: 8-12"
LSC: 7-11"
St. Johnsbury: 6-10"
Peacham: 8-12"
White River Junction: 10-14"
Brattleboro: 10-14"

In New Hampshire-
Berlin: 10-14"
Littleton: 5-9"
North Conway: 14-18"
Plymouth: 10-14"
Concord: 10-14"
Manchester: 10-14"
Keene: 12-16"
Portsmouth: 7-11"

In Maine-
Fryeburg: 14-18"
Jackman: 8-12"
Lewiston: 10-14"
Portland: 8-12"

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6-10" for Rutland? Biggest storm of all time? lol that place is terrible for snow.

Lol, they'll do alright I think...nothing compared to the 14-18" at Killington 10 miles up route 4 haha. Areas west of Rutland (Castleton, Whitehall, NY) will probably see 4-9" at lower elevations. Karmas a beotch ;)

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Seriously..I'm ready for spring after this storm. My cats are getting restless for the huge screened in porch I have...since they are indoor cats. Haven't seen 6° this late in the season in quite awhile. Hope this portents a non-sweltering summer. Lord knows I hate the heat. Never has to get above 75° as far as I'm concerned.

 

Snow blower gassed and ready to go, though...

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Went out a few times last night after moonset but never saw any aurora.  Not sure I'll ever see a display like I did that one autumn evening back in 2003 or 2004 (can't remember when exactly but it was la epic).

 

Anyhow--cold morning.  Down to zero now.

 

Game on for some late season snows--it'll be interesting to see what the coastal/secondary does.  Seems like that's the key between a garden variety medium event and a heavier one back here to the west.  Looks like NH and ME peeps are in the game for that regardless of the timing of deepening and track...

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Fantastic detail in the BTV AFD this a.m.

 

 

 

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...AS OF 405 AM EDT MONDAY...A LONG DURATION MAJOR LATE SEASON SNOWSTORM ISEXPECTED TO IMPACT THE NORTH COUNTRY TONIGHT INTOWEDNESDAY...WITH TWO PERIODS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ANTICIPATED.THIS HEAVY WET SNOW IN THE VALLEYS MAY CAUSE A FEW POWER OUTAGESAND SOME TREE DAMAGE. FIRST ROUND OF ACCUMULATING SNOW ARRIVESTONIGHT...WITH A BREAK MIDDAY TUESDAY...BEFORE MORE ACCUMULATING SNOWREDEVELOPS ON TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING. EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS FROM 4 TO 8INCHES SLV/WESTERN DACKS TO 6 TO 12" EASTERN DACKS/CPV/NEK AND 12TO 18" IN THE NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT BY WEDS MORNING...WITHADDITIONAL UPSLOPE SNOW ANTICIPATE ON WEDS/THURS.WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT 5H ENERGY ACRS THE NORTHERNPLAINS...ALONG WITH A VERY STRONG 25H JET OF 100 TO 120 KNOTS.THIS ENERGY WL QUICKLY MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES TODAY...WHILEMORE ENERGY/MOISTURE LIFTS ACRS THE OHIO VALLEY ASSOCIATED WITHSTRONG WAA. HAVE NOTED SOME LIGHTNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIBBONOF MOISTURE/DYNAMICS.FIRST SURGE OF WAA LIFT/MOISTURE ARRIVES TONIGHT...WITH TYPICAL TRRNIMPACTS ON QPF/SNOWFALL ANTICIPATED. NAM IS 3 TO 6 HRS FASTER WITHARRIVAL OF BEST 850 TO 500MB RH AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO 700MBUVVS...WHILE GFS SUPPORTS BEST LIFT AFT 04Z. WL USE ACOMPROMISE...WHICH PLACES SNOW ACRS OUR SOUTHERN CWA BY04Z...CENTRAL AROUND 06Z...AND INTERNATIONAL BORDER BY 09Z. WL USETHE NAM12 AND LOCAL 4KM TO HIGHLIGHT UPSLOPE/DOWNSLOPE IMPACTS ONPRECIP...AS STRONG 925MB TO 850MB LLVL JET OF 45 TO 55 KNTS ISANTICIPATED. SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME MIXING WITH POTENTIAL DOWNSLOPESE WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS FIRST BAND OF WAA SNOW WLPRODUCE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SE UPSLOPEREGIONS OF THE GREEN MTNS (LUDLOW/KILLINGTON TO WAITSFIELD/STOWETO JAY PEAK) AND WESTERN DACKS (NORTH HUDSON TO PERU TOALTONA)...WITH 1 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE ACRS THE CPV/NEK AND PARTSOF THE SLV. QPF WL RANGE BTWN 0.10" TO 0.40". GIVEN...SOMEDOWNSLOPE WARMING IN THE THERMAL PROFILES...STILL ANTICIPATE A MIXOF SLEET/RAIN IS POSSIBLE RUTLAND/NEK AND POTSDAM AREAS.AS INITIAL SURGE OF 850 TO 700MB FGEN AND ASSOCIATED 850 TO 500MB RHLIFTS NORTH OF OUR CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY...EXPECT A BREAK INACCUMULATING SNOWFALL...WITH TEMPS WARMING INTO THE M30S VALLEYSAND M/U 20S MTNS. BL TEMPS AFT INITIAL SURGE WARM BTWN1-3C...ESPECIALLY ACRS THE WESTERN SLOPES AND PARTS OF THE WESTERNDACKS...AND A MIX OF LIGHT RAIN/SNOW IS ANTICIPATED.SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE/LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH RAPIDLY DEVELOPINGCOASTAL SYSTEM WL OCCUR TUESDAY AFTN/EVENING INTO WEDS AM. GIVENDYNAMICS/MOISTURE PROGGED ACRS OUR CENTRAL/EASTERN CWA...EXPECT ABAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH SNOWFALL RATESOF 1 TO 3 PER HR POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH/CENTRAL VT.A SECONDARY PIECE OF ENERGY OVER CENTRAL NE ATTM...ROTATES AROUNDDEVELOPING DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES ANDDEVELOPS SFC LOW PRES NEAR DELMARVA BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE MAGNITUDEOF MID/UPPER LVL TROF AND TRACK/INTERACTION OF THIS S/WFEATURE...IS CRITICAL FOR WHEN SFC LOW PRES DEVELOPS ALONG THECOAST AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS. ALL MODELS AGREE ON COASTALDEVELOPMENT...WITH GENERAL TRACK TWD CAPE COD BY 00Z WEDS. 00ZGUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TRACK SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AND NOT QUITE AS DEEPWITH SFC LOW...THIS TREND WL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. A GENERALTRACK FROM CAPE COD TO GULF OF MAINE IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR HEAVYSNOWFALL ACRS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH COUNTRY.AS SFC LOW PRES RAPIDLY DEEPENS (1005MB TO 985MB IN 24HRS)FROM S/WENERGY INTERACTION AND 25H DUAL JET COUPLET...A CLOSING NEGATIVELYTILTED 5H/7H CIRCULATION WL ADVECT DEEP LAYER ATLANTIC MOISTUREBACK INTO OUR CENTRAL/NORTHERN CWA...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH-CENTRALMTN OF VT AND THE NEK. BOTH NAM/GFS AND ECMWF SHOW RAPIDDEVELOPMENT OF STRONG 850 TO 700MB UVVS AND ASSOCIATEDMOISTURE...BUT TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE...NAM IS 3 TO 6 HRSSOONER(WEAKER/LESS AMPLIFIED)...THAN GFS/ECMWF/GEM. THINKING WLTREND TWD A DEEPER/SLOWER SOLUTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM FOR THISPACKAGE...WHICH SUPPORTS PRECIP REDEVELOPING BY 21Z TUES. THE 850 TO500MB Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE...7H FGEN FORCING...AND OMEGA FIELDSARE OFF THE CHARTS BTWN 00Z-06Z WEDS...WHICH SUPPORTS MODERATE TOHEAVY SNOWFALL REDEVELOPING. THINKING A BAND OF 1 TO 3 INCH PER HRSNOWFALL WL OCCUR FROM THE WESTERN DACKS INTO THE CPV...AND ACRSCENTRAL/NORTHERN VT...INCLUDING THE NEK. THE STRONG UVVS WLQUICKLY COOL THE BL TEMPS BACK INTO THE 20S...WITH ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL EXPECTED. THIS BAND OF FAVORABLE LIFT/DYNAMICS SHIFTSEAST OF OUR CWA BY 09Z WEDS...WITH MESOSCALE UPSLOPE/TRRN IMPACTEDSNOW ANTICIPATED. SOUNDING DATA SHOWS GOOD RH THRU THE FAVORABLESNOW GROWTH/OMEGA REGION ON TUES NIGHT...SUPPORTING GOOD FLAKESIZE AND RATIOS BTWN 15/20 TO 1. THINKING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL WITHCOASTAL DEVELOPMENT WL BE 4 TO 8 INCHES...EASTERN DACKS/CPV...6 TO12 INCHES NORTH/CENTRAL MTNS OF VT/NEK...AND 2 TO 5 INCHES WESTERNDACKS/SLV. COMBINING THE TWO EVENTS TOGETHER PRODUCES A STORMTOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WESTERN DACKS/SLV TO 6 TO12 INCHES EASTERN DACKS/CPV/NEK TO 12 TO 18 INCHES NORTH/CENTRALMTNS OF VT BY WEDS MORNING.THE 3RD PART OF THE STORM WL BE ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING UPSLOPESNOWFALL ON WEDS. WL USE THE GFS FOR LARGE SCALE SYNOPTICFEATURES...BUT THE LATEST 12KM NAM AND LOCAL 4KM WRF TO HIGHLIGHTTHE DEVELOPMENT OF UPSLOPE QPF/SNOWFALL ON WEDS. GIVEN AN ELONGATEDWEST TO EAST 5H/7H TROF AXIS AND PROGGED POSITION OF SFC LOWPRES...EXPECT A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE 1000 TO 700MB WINDS. THISWL PLACE BEST QPF/SNOWFALL ALONG AND DOWNSTREAM OF THE WESTERNSLOPES OF THE GREENS AND NORTHERN DACKS. NAM/WRF SHOW A VERYFAVORABLE PATTERN FOR A LONG DURATION UPSLOPE EVENT FROM WEDS THRUTHE REMINDER OF THE WEEK. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ON WEDS WLBE 2 TO 6 INCHES WESTERN SLOPES/NORTH-CENTRAL MTNS OF VT AND PARTSOF THE NORTHERN DACKS. LIMITED ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTEDIN THE CPV/SLV AND CT RIVER VALLEY ON WEDS. TEMPS WL RANGE FROM THEM/U20S MTNS TO L/M30S VALLEYS.

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Yep, Taber with another great AFD.

 

I'm little skeptical as always...not sure I'm sold on amounts quite as high, especially with the secondary shifting a bit east. 

 

My forecast for this general area of the Greens is 8-12", locally higher at the summits.

 

But I do like this ;)

 

 

 

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The wind profile for this event is wack-a-doo.  I think snow is going to end up in some strange places. Regardless I think a widespread 8-16 across the ADK, Greens, Whites and Maine mtns is reasonable.  20-24 by thursday night if the upslope component at the end plays out well.

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About -3 this morning, makes 14 of 15 years here that March has recorded below zero - exception was 2010 when the "low" was just 11F.

 

GYX has most of the region pegged at 8-14", though their early map has considerable 14-18" area and a big lolli of 18-24" over the Conway/Jackson area.  Looks to be a fairly fluffy event for the foothills.  I can do without the tree damage a foot of clingy wet stuff would cause.

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Snow in the forecast through Friday. Adding it up, 10 - 20 inches possible this week.

7-DAY FORECAST

  • Today Increasing clouds, with a high near 30. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.

Tonight Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 19. Breezy, with a southeast wind 9 to 14 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Snow. High near 31. Breezy, with a southeast wind 17 to 22 mph decreasing to 11 to 16 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible.

Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 20. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 5 to 9 inches possible.

Wednesday A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. West wind 5 to 13 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 15. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph.

Thursday A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Southwest wind 3 to 5 mph.

Thursday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 18. Light west wind.

Friday A 40 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a high near 30. Light west wind becoming northwest 9 to 14 mph in the morning.

Friday Night A 30 percent chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 20. West wind 5 to 7 mph.

Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind 5 to 11 mph.

Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 34. Light north wind becoming northwest 8 to 13 mph in the afternoon.

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The wind profile for this event is wack-a-doo.  I think snow is going to end up in some strange places. Regardless I think a widespread 8-16 across the ADK, Greens, Whites and Maine mtns is reasonable.  20-24 by thursday night if the upslope component at the end plays out well.

 

Yeah, I'm trying to figure out what strong SE (or thereabouts) winds will mean for lifts at MRG/SB tomorrow. Put nearly all of them on hold, I suspect. I've got a decent Plan B that would involve skinning out the door of where I'll be staying, but am thinking Wednesday is the more likely primo ski day - less wind (and westerly, not nearly the crosswind problem for MRG/SB) and more snow.

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BTV's map is whack. They will lower those amounts I think...at least a little. Broad 14-18" ain't happening when its 3/19 and nothing will accumulate below 2k during the day.

I was wondering when you would begin to panic ;)

My call remains at 8-12" across pretty much all of VT, with spot higher amounts across the summits, especially with upslope factored in.

Though I've always thought this seems like an 8 inch event in the village elevations (below 1000ft) with the chance for double digits if it breaks right.

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The wind profile for this event is wack-a-doo. I think snow is going to end up in some strange places. Regardless I think a widespread 8-16 across the ADK, Greens, Whites and Maine mtns is reasonable. 20-24 by thursday night if the upslope component at the end plays out well.

I always have to remember you only mention numbers for 2000ft and higher, and primarily 3000ft higher lol.

What's so funky with the wind? It's like S to SE then turning NE, then all the way around the dial, to NW haha.

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I always have to remember you only mention numbers for 2000ft and higher, and primarily 3000ft higher lol.

What's so funky with the wind? It's like S to SE then turning NE, then all the way around the dial, to NW haha.

yep. 2000ft and higher. I really should start making that more clear. 

 

Yea, nothing like a full cicle of winds in the 40mph range to confuse the pow.

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Update as of 2:15pm 3/18

 

In Vermont-
BTV: 6-10"
Stowe: 9-13"
Rutland: 5-9"
Montpelier: 8-12"
Newport: 7-11"
LSC: 6-10"
St. Johnsbury: 5-9"
Peacham: 9-13"
White River Junction: 8-12"
Brattleboro: 8-12"

In New Hampshire-
Berlin: 9-13"
Littleton: 4-8"
North Conway: 14-18"
Plymouth: 8-12"
Concord: 10-14"
Manchester: 10-14"
Keene: 11-15"
Portsmouth: 7-11"

In Maine-
Fryeburg: 14-18"
Jackman: 8-12"
Lewiston: 10-14"
Portland: 8-12"

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Thanks CT snow for the totals.   I am curious of total 12Z QPF on Euro.  Did you take that into consideration.  I guess it really came in bullish for amounts.  Dryslot do you have Euro QPF for C/NNE 

 

Thanks,

 

Gene

I did take that into consideration. I lowered amounts in VT and some of NH, and kept ME the same. North Conway to Fryeburg looks good for up to 18". I'm wary of going all out with the sensitivity of the secondary placement.

 

Once again, there may be a place west of the Greens (maybe near KRUT) that gets shafted AGAIN as the secondary gets going too far north and east and downsloping occurs, lol.

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I was checking out our BTV NWS point forecast earlier, and these may be overdone of course based on some of the discussion I’m hearing, but impressive numbers nonetheless summing to 14-26”.  I’m pretty sure that’s the highest potential I’ve seen for a 36-hour period here this season.  The upslope is always a wild card, but a low sitting and spinning like that seems to play out well along the spine.

 

  • Tonight Snow, mainly after midnight. Low around 18. Southeast wind 8 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Snow. High near 31. Southeast wind 9 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • Tuesday Night Snow. Low around 20. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
  • Wednesday Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a high near 31. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 8 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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I talked to Mike Muccilli today on Facebook, and he said that the Met in Charge last night was going ballz to the wall for snowfall with this, despite other mets hedging lower...he expects amounts to be lowered with the 4pm shift...fwiw.

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Nice AFD from GYX

 

 

&&.SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...MODELS...PARTICULARLY THE EURO...HAVE BEEN REMARKABLY CONSISTENTWITH THIS UPCOMING STORM...GIVING DOUBLE DIGIT SNOWFALL TO LARGEPART OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE THEFORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED ALL THAT MUCH AND WS WARNINGS HAVE BEENISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. LOOK FOR SNOW TO START FROM SW TONE...PROBABLY LATE THIS EVENING TO SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT INSOUTHERN NH AND SW ME...AND DURING THE PRE-DAWN TO SUNRISE PERIODELSEWHERE. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO START QUICKLY...WITH INTENSE WAA ANDFRONTOGENESIS ALOFT LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. IT WILL NOT TAKELONG FROM ONSET FOR SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHTTONIGHT...WITH A QUICK SHOT OF 4 TO 8 INCHES IN THIS TIME FRAMEACROSS SW ME AND THE SRN TWO THIRDS OF NH....WITH THIS FIRST SHOT OFHEAVIER SNOW MOVING INTO THE REST OF THE CWA AROUND SUNRISE.MODELS SUGGESTING A BIT OF A LULL IN THE HEAVIER SNOW LATE MORNINGINTO AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AS THERMAL ADVECTION WEAKENS...ANDBETTER DYNAMICS HOLD OFF UNTIL MID-UPPER LVL TROUGH TO OUR NW HOOKSUP WITH SRN STREAM WAVE LATER IN THE DAY. IT IS IN THISTIME...MAINLY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF TUE...THAT SOME RAINCOULD MIX IN...OR WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF LIGHTER RAIN...ON THECOAST...AND IN SRN ROCKINGHAM COUNTY. GIVEN STRONG AGEOSTROPHICFLOW DEVELOPING ON INTERIOR SIDE OF COASTAL FRONT...IT IS UNLIKELYTHAT ANY RAIN WILL OCCUR N OF PORTLAND...AND THE BEST CHC FOR ACHANGEOVER OR MIXING IS ACROSS COASTAL YORK COUNTY AND ROCKINGHAMCTY.BY LATE TUESDAY SHOULD SEE SNOW INTENSITY START TO PICK UP AS MID-LVL DEFORMATION INCREASES...AND WILL LKLY SEE ANOTHER ROUND OFHEAVIER SNOW THROUGH TUE EVENING ACROSS MST OF THE CWA...AND THESTEADIER HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THEMOUNTAINS OF BOTH STATES...AND THE CENTRAL MAINE FOOTHILLS.ELSEWHERE...LOOK FOR THE SNOW TO TAPER OFF TO SCT SHSN AFTERMIDNIGHT. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE IT LOOKS LIKE MANY AREAS WILLSEE 10 TO 16 INCHES...WITH LOWER AMTS ON THE COAST AND IN THEDOWNSLOPE AREAS OF THE CT VLY..AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS IN THEUPSLOPE AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS AND MTNS.THIS SNOW MAINLY LOOKS TO HAVE RATIOS AT LEAST 10 TO 1 IN MOSTPLACES...AND PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 15 OR 16 TO 1...WHICH IS RARE THISLATE IN MARCH. MAY HAVE TO WATCH FOR A PERIOD OF HEAVIER AND WETTERSNOW ALONG THE SW MAINE COAST DURING THE DAY TUE...BUT THINKING ISTHAT THE BULK OF THE SNOW HERE WILL BE KEPT AT HIGHER RATIOS WHENIT IS COLDER LATE TONIGHT...AND THE AGAIN WHEN VERT VEL IS HIGH INDEFORMATION LATE TUE. THIS SHOULD HELP TO MITIGATE ISSUE WITH THESNOW BRINGING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. STILL...CANNOT RULEA FEW OF THESE PROBLEMS IN THESE AREAS.NORMALLY SNOWFALL IN LATE MARCH IS A TRICKY PROPOSITION ATBEST...BUT ANOMALOUSLY COLD AND DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE AHEAD OFTHIS SYSTEM GIVES SOME HIGHER CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.&&

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That's the AM discussion.  They just updated it, no specific accum numbers, but one might deduce that coastal areas will get bumped up and inland areas remain about the same.  They seem a bit more bullish about a late week event, too, though it's still questionable.

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
258 PM EDT MON MAR 18 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND THEN TRACK NORTHEAST
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND MAINE LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A COASTAL STORM
WILL DEVELOP AND PASS NEAR THE SHORE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 18Z...A 1031 MILLIBAR SURFACE HIGH WAS DRAPED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. THE HIGH WILL CREST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING
THEN SLIDE OFFSHORE. DRY AND COLD ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT BEGINNING OVERNIGHT
THEN THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THE NUMERICALS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
COLDER...AND THERE IS A DECREASING LIKELIHOOD OF COASTAL FRONT
BRINGING A CHANGE TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST...AND OF ANY WARM AIR
MOVING IN ALOFT FOR SLEET. THE 12Z GFS DROPPED OFF QPF AMOUNTS AND
APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER WHEN COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE
REMAINDER OF THE AVAILABLE MODEL SUITE. GIVEN LITTLE OR NO MIX FOR
THE COAST...HAVE RAISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE WITH THE NEW PACKAGE
THIS AFTERNOON. I MANUALLY ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AND TO DERIVE MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FIELD.
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ONSET TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE INITIAL BAND OF HEAVIER OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL DIMINISH FOR A
TIME DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS WITH A SECOND
BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW ARRIVING FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS WITH UPPER IMPULSE AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW. I TRENDED
COLDER ON SURFACE AND MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
NEAR THE COAST AS THE COASTAL FRONT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WERE RAISED NEAR THE COAST SINCE THE PROSPECT FOR
ANY MIXING WITH SLEET...OR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN...CONTINUES TO
DIMINISH.

THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE LOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUR
MOUNTAIN ZONES AND FAR EASTERN MAINE ZONES WHERE THE SNOW SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FALL FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COASTAL LOW WHICH WILL HELP BRING SNOW TO THE REGION TUESDAY
WILL LIFT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY TAKING WITH IT THE
BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION. A COUPLE MORE INCHES OF SNOW WILL FALL
MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW BECOME ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR
TO THE TERRAIN. THE COASTAL LOW WILL THEN ROTATE NORTHWARD AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW REORGANIZES AND LINGERS ALOFT.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF CONSEQUENCE WILL BE ANOTHER COASTAL WAVE WHICH
WILL PASS NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN THE STORM STAYS FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE NOT TO
BE A THREAT BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IT ONSHORE WITH THE NAM IN BETWEEN.
THESE DISCREPANCIES WOULD MEAN THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN ANOTHER WINTER
STORM OR NOT. IF A STORM DEVELOPED THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS WOULD BE
CENTERED ON THE COAST. GIVEN THE ECMWF AND ITS GOOD TRACK RECORD OF
LATE HAVE INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW THE PATTERN DEVELOPS A SURFACE TROUGH COULD
SET UP OVER THE AREA ENHANCING SNOWFALL.

ANY HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SHOULD END FRIDAY WITH LOWER PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ON SATURDAY AS THE UPPER LOW BECOMES ELONGATED FROM WEST TO
EAST. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE 30S AND 40S THROUGH THE
EXTENDED WITH ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCES DUE TO ADVECTION PATTERNS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE TEENS AND 20S NORTH TO
20S AND 30S SOUTH.

 

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