WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Imo with the trough so far east before going neutral or negative the sfc low will have to be located OTS. Edit...There it is at hr 99. The s/w is west of Texas still at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The s/w is west of Texas still at 72. I'm using SV paid maps so I'm already out to hr 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The tilt is important, but one problem is that the trough axis keeps moving farther and farther east. There is really no way it's going to get negative in time if the axis doesn't shift west some. Of course, the Canadian has it on the other side of the country .... Widre is right, have to give the Euro every opportunity to sniff this out. But at best it feels like a 1 out of 10 shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm using SV paid maps so I'm already out to hr 108. I am too on RW's site, but not the 500 mb output, which is only out to 84. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I am too on RW's site, but not the 500 mb output, which is only out to 84. On SV maps the 500mb output is the same sfc maps...Meaning I'm out to hr 117 on the 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Wildre is right. Why punt when it's not 4th down. If the euro shoots blanks the next 3-4 runs consecutively then ill call the punter onto the field. Right now the euro potential is 50/50 at best producing anything of significance in this supersonic flow. 3-7 day range it is the king of the hill down here for my preference. Knowing the difficulty models would have with the table set up for this one the way it is, best thing to do is wait and use the old EE rule as the next 48-72 hours unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There's a lot of potential here still. There are a number of pieces of energy in the northern stream, and two in the southern stream. The timing is the key, as we all know. Things we do know: we'll have a trough in the east; we'll have cold air; we'll have energy. It's just a matter of seeing if we'll get some sort of phase. With all the s/w's about, I can't imagine that we won't see *something*. And with the models having shown several solutions involving a storm, including a few that took the storm inland to the west of us, I'd be utterly surprised if we only end up with a weak low way out to sea. It just doesn't seem right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 On SV maps the 500mb output is the same sfc maps...Meaning I'm out to hr 117 on the 500 mb. Cool. I'm not going to pay money to get model maps 10 minutes earlier than everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 How detailed is the Euro exactly if you pay? I'm curious what the trough axis is and how tilted it is vs lets say the Nam. The Nam looks a whole heck of a lot better than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Cool. I'm not going to pay money to get model maps 10 minutes earlier than everyone else. I don't pay to get them 10 mins earlier...I pay to get the euro maps. The 10 mins earlier is just an extra bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I don't pay to get them 10 mins earlier...I pay to get the euro maps. The 10 mins earlier is just an extra bonus. I can get Euro maps for free from Weather Underground, including precip and surface temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The tilt is important, but one problem is that the trough axis keeps moving farther and farther east. There is really no way it's going to get negative in time if the axis doesn't shift west some. Of course, the Canadian has it on the other side of the country .... Widre is right, have to give the Euro every opportunity to sniff this out. But at best it feels like a 1 out of 10 shot. I agree 100% bean...As long as that trough axis is so far east it's going to be hard to turn the corner in time. I can get Euro maps for free from Weather Underground, including precip and surface temperatures. Congrats Widre...And I can get mine from SV for a small fee. It looks like we're both happy. We both get the maps we like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z Ukie out to 72 -- looks like it is placing much more emphasis on the s/w in the southwest. Not sure what that means and given the array of vorticity, who knows if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 CMC finally about to cave with this 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Canadian basically lost its entire precip field from the 12z to the 0z run. Had an area of 10mm+ over the central MIss. Valley on 12z run at 84 hours. All that's left at same time (72 hours) on the 0z run is a mm or 2 over Ky.and northern Tenn. Surface low is super weak. Better have a Euro Hail Mary tonight ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 There's a lot of potential here still. There are a number of pieces of energy in the northern stream, and two in the southern stream. The timing is the key, as we all know. Things we do know: we'll have a trough in the east; we'll have cold air; we'll have energy. It's just a matter of seeing if we'll get some sort of phase. With all the s/w's about, I can't imagine that we won't see *something*. And with the models having shown several solutions involving a storm, including a few that took the storm inland to the west of us, I'd be utterly surprised if we only end up with a weak low way out to sea. It just doesn't seem right. I have to interrupt our current Storm-Drop-In-Progress to say this... That Glass Half Full attitude looks mighty good on you, Widre. I'm impressed and I agree. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm scared, Peach. But after seeing the res. difference in the two models,( and I can understand visuals), even if calc. eludes me, I've got to pay more attention to watching the Euro as it comes in, rather than waiting for a recounting, and looking later. Some good stuff tonight. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z Ukie out to 72 -- looks like it is placing much more emphasis on the s/w in the southwest. Not sure what that means and given the array of vorticity, who knows if it's right. UKMet really crashes the heights between 72hr and 96hr....same as last night's run (just 24 hr earlier now....lol). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 12z UKMet had the same look....so it's been consistent....and a decent look. Need Euro to show something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 So, IF (and a BIG if) the Euro were to show something positive tonight, we'd have two of the Big Three models showing something, correct? On the positive side with the GFS, it gave central NC some token flurries at hr 75, LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z GEM, UK and NOGAPS all look similar, heart shaped look, with primary development a good ways east of the VA Capes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 I'm scared, Peach. But after seeing the res. difference in the two models,( and I can understand visuals), even if calc. eludes me, I've got to pay more attention to watching the Euro as it comes in, rather than waiting for a recounting, and looking later. Some good stuff tonight. T Kinda scared me, to be honest. I do agree, though. It seems we are just one baggy contour away from a nice gulf-tapping. All the cards are on the table now. Nothing left to do but see who is holding what. Texas Hold-Em Meteorology right there, folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Call me a Scrooge but I just don't see anything/much here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Well, as long as the big two hold the cold, I'm still in. Keep that 0 line in Fla. and mid Ga will get some cold air for a change. I just checked the temps though and it's around 40 for a high on the 0z..and take a few degrees off, as often happens, and I still don't think I'll see a high below freezing unless it's pouring ip/sn. Still a moderate push of cold can do the trick if the trough is in the gulf and can pop a low, and not stopped around Macon as per usual these last years. T Edit: Did you get some good rain, Delta? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 0z Euro almost identical to the 12z....to bed I go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Good lord yes, finally!!! Looks its gonna be around 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 Good lord yes, finally!!! Looks its gonna be around 6-8" What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 What? He's talking about rain. So, I guess we can lock this thing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 The 0Z Doctor says no/next! Edit: ooops, actually that's not true. Some light precip. SE coast GA to NC. Heaviest QPF ~0.20" near Charleston fwiw. No snowfall shown on clown maps, but those maps show only 1"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 13, 2013 Share Posted February 13, 2013 euro trended slightly west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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