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Feb 17/18 Storm Threat - Discussion


mahk_webstah

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You can see the differences in the models overnight. The stretched out s/w that moves ionto NY state is a bit more concentrated and pumps up height to the east. Actually, ridging in general is higher. Also the trough digs an as a result becomes negatively tilted a bit more than the 12z and 18z runs had yesterday. We'll have to see if this continues today.

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LOL, who knows with this. Most of us may either smoke cirrus or get some snow. Definitely got interesting. I'll take the Ukie for 1,000 Alex.

 

It's one of those really odd synoptic setups that rarely result in meaningful snow but frequently lead to days and days of model hallucinations. 

 

Once in a while these work out... so we'll see. 

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The NAM is a deplorable model...yet we love to look at it. Probably because it has the best available graphics on various sites. I'm not going to take that model seriously until about 12 hours before any event.

 

The globals are def giving a signal though for at least some modest snows. Perhaps advisory if we are lucky. The setup is pretty delicate so I wouldn't start getting married to model solutions quite yet.

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The NAM is a deplorable model...yet we love to look at it. Probably because it has the best available graphics on various sites. I'm not going to take that model seriously until about 12 hours before any event.

The globals are def giving a signal though for at least some modest snows. Perhaps advisory if we are lucky. The setup is pretty delicate so I wouldn't start getting married to model solutions quite yet.

MOS gives you 6
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