dryslot Posted February 8, 2013 Author Share Posted February 8, 2013 Looks like the 12z GFS finally has a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we'll see how this plays out...but a lot of stuff showing this moving S of the BM now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What? Dude chill out. I was serious it sounds like that was what you were thinking...sorry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 So the NAM has bowed considerably toward the others in ENY, but still creaming SNE pretty good. Coming to consensus. GFS OP moving more towards its ensembles/more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Boys and Girls have fun enjoy while the rest of us snow weenies just wish we could be there. I would not be shocked to see some 50" totals MASS on North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we'll see how this plays out...but a lot of stuff showing this moving S of the BM now. OP GFS just won't really bite on the north track. Staying pretty far south through 12. What do you make of it Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 You and I are bummed, but I can recall many others who completely melted down when they were in our shoes. A sick passion..... Absolutely right. And, in many of those cases it's after they've changed to ip or rain. I'll take my 12-18" screw job. DT' final map overall looks pretty good..though some totals might need to be nudged upwards http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/meteorology/LAST.jpg Particularly up through the mid-coast of Maine. With this morning's snows, they might emerge from this 36 hours as the champs. FYI new RPM has gone from about 3 feet to 10" for Hartford/New Haven. 12" for Kevin... 16" for Ginx. Talk about suicide watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What is whdh smoking? You think at least double this on the cape, correct? People always underestimate the capes ability to hold onto snow in the big ones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 OP GFS just won't really bite on the north track. Staying pretty far south through 12. What do you make of it Phil? i think it's pretty close to right with the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People always underestimate the capes ability to hold onto snow in the big ones It's more an issue of non-accumulating snow. It's moderate now, not sticking. Too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What is whdh smoking? You think at least double this on the cape, correct? This map is garbage for the cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ConvectiveSolutions Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Can someone post a link of some big, high quality satellite loops? There was one that was going around for Sandy that was extremely nice. Forget where that went though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Steady light snow visibility about. .75 vis 32f Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i think it's pretty close to right with the track. Me too. it looks like it just moved towards it's ensemble mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 we'll see how this plays out...but a lot of stuff showing this moving S of the BM now. Just take the 00z ECMWF and nudge it a hair east if any...there are some very encouraging signs on satellite and obs this morning that suggest no hard right turn is going to occur. It is already forming a comma just east of the VA coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's more an issue of non-accumulating snow. It's moderate now, not sticking. Too warm. Ccb would make up time lost to that. I wouldnt even raise an eyebrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS still sucks. Like a foot of snow here. Highly doubt I get less than 20". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 i think it's pretty close to right with the track.What??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 What??? just my take. you don't have to agree. it's OK. lol. not saying it's going to be dead nuts right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is a bit NW of 6z. Didn't go east and a bit more generous with QPF on northwest flank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Nice nw trend on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Ccb would make up time lost to that. I wouldnt even raise an eyebrow WHDH is too light. I figure 8-12 here plus or minus a few inches (probably plus) but remember I have a hard time accumulating in these situations until the stall which now looks to occur potentially too far ENE to really capitalize on the OES stuff here. Better for Phil though. I don't know about areas roughly west of I95. But that's not my area/concern anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That's a wicked hard right turn on the gfs. Is that even possible with this storm? Hug the coast and then make a hard right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 People always underestimate the capes ability to hold onto snow in the big ones I agree, we really do well up against the big ones. Blizzard of 05 was greatly underestimated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 just my take. you don't have to agree. it's OK. lol. not saying it's going to be dead nuts right. Not to be a weenie, but you have 20-30" in central mass, can you explain how that is supported by the gfs track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS def more impressive in the upper levels. I'd prob take its track and nudge it a shade west for verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is a bit NW of 6z. Didn't go east and a bit more generous with QPF on northwest flank. that's good, I think it increased QPF a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 gfs look'd like at 6z position tick'd west a tad, but it doesn't show the slow/stall scenario ...as it moves the low progressively toward 12z sat and the qpf amounts at that time frame are pedestrian for everyone (including cape/downeast maine wrt nam/euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS is a bit NW of 6z. Didn't go east and a bit more generous with QPF on northwest flank. Just a hair north/about the same as the 6z GEFS. I don't think it looks terribly unreasonable nor do I think it's unsupported by the RGEM at this point. Tossing the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 GFS caves at the last second lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.