OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 lol. Well NAM beefed up QPF slightly for BUF....now 0.90". That 1.25" line strattles the Lake Ontario shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Latest Watch from BUF dropped totals back to the 6-11" range, more along the lines of what most around here seem to be thinking. Must have been a rookie on the day shift....Here's how the shift transition probably went - 2nd shift veteran: Son, you’ve got a better chance of having Frosty the Snowman himself walk into this office with a dozen Anchor Bar wings than you do for that 9-18 inch forecast to work out. 1st shift rookie: But sir, those Euro QPF outputs… 2nd shift veteran: To hell with that Euro trash! This is Buffalo, son, synoptic systems produce around here about as good as the Bills. 1st shift rookie: Yes sir, but that cold northeast flow off Lake Ontario looks…. 2nd shift veteran: F that little pond to our north! Only lake around here that’s dumping 9-18 inches of snow is Lake Erie. Now move over so I can issue this update… That is some good **** right here. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I'm more impressed with lake enhancement than I was before...looks pretty good at least for areas close to LO. the soundings on Friday evening/overnight in ROC area pretty impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i know. We deal with weak deformation zones here almost exclusively. We are too far from the atlantic and a lot of the inflow/moisture is rung out before it gets to the 700mb frontogentical region in our area. 00z NAM is pretty nice. Congrats ART...wow. I was down in southeast PA during a big storm back in Jan 96. Rates in those deformation zones certainly rival what I've experienced in some intense lake effect bands. Different feeling when the snow is ripping at 3"/hr with such high moisture content - literally stops you in your tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6-11 inch totals now expected across WNY. Much more inline with models and qpf output NOTE THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLYDOWNWARD FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. GIVEN THERAPID TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE COAST SEEN IN LATEST MODELGUIDANCE…EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE SHORT LIVED IN MOSTAREAS…ONLY LASTING FOR 4-6 HOURS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAYIN WESTERN NY…AND A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE GENESEEVALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. ALSO…THE AIRMAS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FORANY MEANINGFUL LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THE TAIL END…WITH LAKE INDUCEDEQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 4K FEET OFF LAKE ONTARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ummm...if 00z GFS verified...parts of C/N/W NY would do much better than parts of E. Mass, taking into account better ratios....and the Blizzard watch would NOT verify out that way....however a toaster advisory is now in effect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Really wasn't expecting this much of a shift. Cape Cod does very well out there however this run. Where I am in ENY seems to be caught in-between. Enough to shovel perhaps, but a very pedestrian event. After looking at the 00z NAM's output for New England, the GFS must be an especially big blow to some out there. Still a very nice storm for most of them however. Ummm...if 00z GFS verified...parts of C/N/W NY would do much better than parts of E. Mass....and the Blizzard watch would NOT verify out that way....however a toaster advisory is now in effect.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 6-11 inch totals now expected across WNY. Much more inline with models and qpf output NOTE THAT THESE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD FOR MANY AREAS FROM THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE. GIVEN THE RAPID TRANSFER OF ENERGY TO THE COAST SEEN IN LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE…EXPECT THE HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE SHORT LIVED IN MOST AREAS…ONLY LASTING FOR 4-6 HOURS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY IN WESTERN NY…AND A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS THE GENESEE VALLEY AND FINGER LAKES. ALSO…THE AIRMAS IS NOT COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY MEANINGFUL LAKE ENHANCEMENT AT THE TAIL END…WITH LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ONLY AROUND 4K FEET OFF LAKE ONTARIO. lol...it's not like anything changed from previous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Ummm...if 00z GFS verified...parts of C/N/W NY would do much better than parts of E. Mass, taking into account better ratios....and the Blizzard watch would NOT verify out that way....however a toaster advisory is now in effect.... Yeah 0Z GooFuS is doing just that. Fortunately, or not, the coastal is of less bearing on our fate. BGM's take on this seems about right. KBUF can also get back to discussing how mild pacific air will be flooding the continent soon enough. I see we may get AOA for a day or two next week. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Winter storm warnings up for areas north of Buffalo and along the Lake Ontario shoreline, as well as Onondaga, Madison and Oneida counties. 8-12" for the BGM counties, 6-12" for WNY, 8-12" for south of Lake Ontario and 10-18" for the counties east of Lake Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 00z GFS suggests the possibility of some heavier snow bands in WNY around 12z Friday, with pretty good 850 mb frontogenesis and some negative EPV. The SUNY mm5 shows high reflectivity several hours later over the same areas of WNY. The mm5 page doesn't have any 850 mb frontogenesis parameter but it does show some weak frontogenesis at 700 mb. It does look like some areas may get signficiant banded precipitation, but it is too early to tell exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 The 00z GFS suggests the possibility of some heavier snow bands in WNY around 12z Friday, with pretty good 850 mb frontogenesis and some negative EPV. The SUNY mm5 shows high reflectivity several hours later over the same areas of WNY. The mm5 page doesn't have any 850 mb frontogenesis parameter but it does show some weak frontogenesis at 700 mb. It does look like some areas may get signficiant banded precipitation, but it is too early to tell exactly where. Awesome, looks good! Majority of SREF have KBuf getting 10-16 inches of snow, with a few outliers between 5-10 inches. Hope that comes to fruition! Must be taking in the banding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like the latest nam destroys Rick and puts me on the edge of the real heavy stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DueUCMe Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I know you guys are just getting geared up for the current storm but has anyone looked past this one to next week yet. I ask because I will be traveling via car from NC to WNY next Wednesday and would like to keep a heads up on what may or may not be going on. Thanks in advance! Mason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone have access to the new Euro data? Any ideas for the Capital District? The NYC forum just exploded because apparently the Euro came a bit west and is putting down 2" liquid from the Garden State Parkway east, so NYC may be in on this blizzard. I'm wondering about the impact in upstate NY, especially here in the CD. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 Does anyone have access to the new Euro data? Any ideas for the Capital District? The NYC forum just exploded because apparently the Euro came a bit west and is putting down 2" liquid from the Garden State Parkway east, so NYC may be in on this blizzard. I'm wondering about the impact in upstate NY, especially here in the CD. Thanks. I haven't seen the maps yet but the text data puts out .77" of precip for ALB.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I haven't seen the maps yet but the text data puts out .77" of precip for ALB.. Ahh... OK. Thanks. I kinda figured that the NAM had lost it's mind for what it was putting down around Albany. .77" seems more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 For CNY, Euro doesn't do much...we have been shafted! 3-6 at best, verbatium...and delayed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 So CNY went from 6-12 and now 3-6? wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gorizer Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST SATURDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...ALL OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES IN THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY...SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...LAKE GEORGE AND SARATOGA REGIONS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 16 INCHES SCHOHARIE VALLEY...CAPITAL DISTRICT...EASTERN CATSKILLS...MID HUDSON VALLEY...TACONICS...AND SOUTHERN VERMONT. ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 18 INCHES IN WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS. * MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES...SNOW RATES WILL OCCASIONALLY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR DURING FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN FRIDAY MORNING...AND BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR ON FRIDAY EVENING...BEFORE TAPERING OFF SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITY...FREQUENTLY BELOW 1 MILE...WILL MAKE FOR DANGEROUS TRAVEL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro Destroys most of WNY with a foot of snow or more possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro Destroys most of WNY with a foot of snow or more possibly.same with 15z SERF. About 12-15" for BUF and 15-20" for Niagara and Orleans counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 George, looking like CNY will be between best dynamics w/ primary to N & W and coastal to SE. We probably squeak out 5-6" but it won't be impressive here. And no LES worth mentioning afterwards. At least we should remain all SN. On to the next one it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Looks like NYC and Long Island will be paralyzed for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Euro Destroys most of WNY with a foot of snow or more possibly. same with 15z SERF. About 12-15" for BUF and 15-20" for Niagara and Orleans counties. Check the AFD from the Buffalo NWS: general 4 to 6 inches in WNY for the daytime, another 1 to 3 Friday evening. Adding it up (which they don't do in the AFD: 5 to 9 total in the Metro. Mention of a warm nose tonight, leading to a mix not only in the southern tier but possibly as far north as Buffalo and Batavia tomorrow. I'm assuming that's why they're going way low on the forecasted amounts. Seems that this is what KBUF thinks and they're sticking to it. Is anyone here on board with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted February 7, 2013 Author Share Posted February 7, 2013 The winter storm warning for Oswego county has 10-18", while the grid forecast only shows 7-12". I think the 7-12" is much more likely here with the best dynamics from the clippler to the north and west. The area along the south shore of Lake Ontario could get a bit more with better lake enhancement and frontogenesis. especially for Niagara and Orleans counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 Check the AFD from the Buffalo NWS: general 4 to 6 inches in WNY for the daytime, another 1 to 3 Friday evening. Adding it up (which they don't do in the AFD: 5 to 9 total in the Metro. Mention of a warm nose tonight, leading to a mix not only in the southern tier but possibly as far north as Buffalo and Batavia tomorrow. I'm assuming that's why they're going way low on the forecasted amounts. Seems that this is what KBUF thinks and they're sticking to it. Is anyone here on board with this? i think that Buffalo and Batavia northward be fine. If sleet does make it I think its only gonna make it up to about me (Orchard Park). Im expecting a little sleet to mix in here with prob 5-8" here. I think you guys in Buffalo and the northtowns are more likley to see 8-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 i think that Buffalo and Batavia northward be fine. If sleet does make it I think its only gonna make it up to about me (Orchard Park). Im expecting a little sleet to mix in here with prob 5-8" here. I think you guys in Buffalo and the northtowns are more likley to see 8-12". I expect that somewhere there's going to be a dropoff, maybe a fairly significant one. It must be a tough call on forecasting amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scottmartin49 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 "Seems that this is what KBUF thinks and they're sticking to it. Is anyone here on board with this?" The low looks to be tracking more E than NE- early shutdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted February 7, 2013 Share Posted February 7, 2013 I expect that somewhere there's going to be a dropoff, maybe a fairly significant one. It must be a tough call on forecasting amounts.my high by the NWS today was 32. I made it to 36 today and am currently sitting at 34 while Buffalo and the northtowns sit around 30. I think the area that is experiencing warmer temps that forecasted is the area that will see sleet tomorrow. I think anyone south of West Seneca has a shot at sleet tomorrow. Wondering how low well get tonight before precip moves in tomorrow. Only good thing is there should be some decent dynamic cooling tomorrow one we get into heavier precip rates after daybreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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