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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013


heavy_wx

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That only shows the model run, not qpf output though. You have to pay to see that I believe. Or there is a 1 month trial version I believe as well.

Well, the drop down menu provides a graphical representation of 3-hour qpf totals that you can estimate quite nicely, not to mention 3-hour snowfall, 850 temps, etc.....

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Looks like a pretty decent snowstorm heading our way in a few days. GFS went a little bit more south and colder which yields to the last few Euro runs which bring nearly a foot of snow to WNY.

 

I was mentioning how weird it is to see the snowfall max so far north for a Miller B bomb.  Usually those swaths go from Illinois through NY/PA, instead of the central Michigan to the north shore of Lake Ontario.

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Going with the 12z NAM and GFS verbatim it looks like a high end advisory event south of BUF (4-7" , with 4" near the PA line and the 7 more towards the southtowns) with warning criteria likely north of BUF (5-10"). Its still early though so things can change but I would think watches will be issued for all of BUFs forecast area with this afternoons package.

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Just because it's crazy and should be saved somewhere: KBOS off the 12z NAM. Road Trip Anyone?

 

 

130208/1200Z  48  10012KT  28.5F  SNOW   13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005   13:1|  0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1300Z  49  10014KT  29.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009   13:1|  0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01  100|  0|  0130208/1400Z  50  10015KT  29.9F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013   13:1|  0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03  100|  0|  0130208/1500Z  51  10015KT  30.6F  SNOW   12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016   12:1|  0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04  100|  0|  0130208/1600Z  52  10015KT  31.2F  SNOW   12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025   12:1|  0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07  100|  0|  0130208/1700Z  53  09016KT  31.4F  SNOW   11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032   12:1|  1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10  100|  0|  0130208/1800Z  54  09016KT  31.7F  SNOW   13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033   12:1|  1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130208/1900Z  55  08017KT  31.9F  SNOW   13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045   12:1|  2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18  100|  0|  0130208/2000Z  56  08019KT  31.9F  SNOW   10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062   12:1|  2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24  100|  0|  0130208/2100Z  57  07021KT  31.7F  SNOW   12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107   12:1|  4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35  100|  0|  0130208/2200Z  58  07021KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145   11:1|  5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49  100|  0|  0130208/2300Z  59  07022KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.171   10:1|  6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66  100|  0|  0130209/0000Z  60  07022KT  31.5F  SNOW    6:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151    9:1|  7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0100Z  61  06023KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.166    9:1|  8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98  100|  0|  0130209/0200Z  62  06023KT  31.7F  SNOW    7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167    8:1|  9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15  100|  0|  0130209/0300Z  63  05024KT  31.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.165    8:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31  100|  0|  0130209/0400Z  64  04025KT  30.6F  SNOW    9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151    8:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46  100|  0|  0130209/0500Z  65  03025KT  28.7F  SNOW    8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140    8:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.60  100|  0|  0130209/0600Z  66  02027KT  25.8F  SNOW    9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128    8:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.73  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/0700Z  67  01029KT  23.3F  SNOW   11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159    9:1| 16.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.89  100|  0|  0130209/0800Z  68  01031KT  21.3F  SNOW   14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219    9:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.11  100|  0|  0130209/0900Z  69  01032KT  20.0F  SNOW   12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.244    9:1| 22.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.35  100|  0|  0130209/1000Z  70  01029KT  18.8F  SNOW    9:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.248    9:1| 24.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.60  100|  0|  0130209/1100Z  71  36029KT  17.9F  SNOW   13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274   10:1| 28.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.87  100|  0|  0130209/1200Z  72  36030KT  17.0F  SNOW   12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237   10:1| 30.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.11  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1300Z  73  36031KT  16.2F  SNOW   10:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237   10:1| 33.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.35  100|  0|  0130209/1400Z  74  36030KT  16.1F  SNOW   11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230   10:1| 35.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.58  100|  0|  0130209/1500Z  75  35027KT  15.7F  SNOW   15:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233   10:1| 39.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.81  100|  0|  0130209/1600Z  76  35026KT  15.2F  SNOW   18:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.236   11:1| 43.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.05  100|  0|  0130209/1700Z  77  35025KT  15.2F  SNOW   14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.260   11:1| 47.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.31  100|  0|  0130209/1800Z  78  34025KT  15.3F  SNOW   10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212   11:1| 49.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.52  100|  0|  0----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---130209/1900Z  79  34025KT  15.5F  SNOW    8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149   11:1| 50.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.67  100|  0|  0130209/2000Z  80  34024KT  16.4F  SNOW    6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088   11:1| 51.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.76  100|  0|  0130209/2100Z  81  34024KT  17.3F  SNOW    6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070   11:1| 51.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.83  100|  0|  0130209/2200Z  82  33023KT  17.7F  SNOW    7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051   11:1| 51.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.88  100|  0|  0130209/2300Z  83  33022KT  17.5F  SNOW    8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034   11:1| 52.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.91  100|  0|  0130210/0000Z  84  33021KT  17.1F  SNOW    9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022   11:1| 52.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.93  100|  0|  0============================================================================================================================
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I'm not sure good any lake enhancement will really be.  850s are quite warm during the event...it's obviously plenty cold at the surface...but there would only be a small absolutely unstable layer near the ground.  Some of the big prolific enhancement events had -15 to -20c air at 850 dumping in during the storm...this one will not.

 

 




			
		
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Just because it's crazy and should be saved somewhere: KBOS off the 12z NAM. Road Trip Anyone?

 

 

130208/1200Z 48 10012KT 28.5F SNOW 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.005 13:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1300Z 49 10014KT 29.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.009 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.01 100| 0| 0

130208/1400Z 50 10015KT 29.9F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.013 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 100| 0| 0

130208/1500Z 51 10015KT 30.6F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.016 12:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 100| 0| 0

130208/1600Z 52 10015KT 31.2F SNOW 12:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.025 12:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.07 100| 0| 0

130208/1700Z 53 09016KT 31.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.032 12:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.10 100| 0| 0

130208/1800Z 54 09016KT 31.7F SNOW 13:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.033 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130208/1900Z 55 08017KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 12:1| 2.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.18 100| 0| 0

130208/2000Z 56 08019KT 31.9F SNOW 10:1| 0.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.062 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.24 100| 0| 0

130208/2100Z 57 07021KT 31.7F SNOW 12:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 12:1| 4.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.35 100| 0| 0

130208/2200Z 58 07021KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.145 11:1| 5.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 100| 0| 0

130208/2300Z 59 07022KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.171 10:1| 6.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.66 100| 0| 0

130209/0000Z 60 07022KT 31.5F SNOW 6:1| 0.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 9:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.81 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0100Z 61 06023KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.166 9:1| 8.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.98 100| 0| 0

130209/0200Z 62 06023KT 31.7F SNOW 7:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.167 8:1| 9.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.15 100| 0| 0

130209/0300Z 63 05024KT 31.5F SNOW 8:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.165 8:1| 11.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.31 100| 0| 0

130209/0400Z 64 04025KT 30.6F SNOW 9:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.151 8:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.46 100| 0| 0

130209/0500Z 65 03025KT 28.7F SNOW 8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.140 8:1| 13.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.60 100| 0| 0

130209/0600Z 66 02027KT 25.8F SNOW 9:1| 1.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.128 8:1| 14.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.73 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/0700Z 67 01029KT 23.3F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.159 9:1| 16.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.89 100| 0| 0

130209/0800Z 68 01031KT 21.3F SNOW 14:1| 3.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.219 9:1| 19.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.11 100| 0| 0

130209/0900Z 69 01032KT 20.0F SNOW 12:1| 2.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.244 9:1| 22.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.35 100| 0| 0

130209/1000Z 70 01029KT 18.8F SNOW 9:1| 2.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.248 9:1| 24.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.60 100| 0| 0

130209/1100Z 71 36029KT 17.9F SNOW 13:1| 3.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.274 10:1| 28.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.87 100| 0| 0

130209/1200Z 72 36030KT 17.0F SNOW 12:1| 2.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237 10:1| 30.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.11 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1300Z 73 36031KT 16.2F SNOW 10:1| 2.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.237 10:1| 33.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.35 100| 0| 0

130209/1400Z 74 36030KT 16.1F SNOW 11:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.230 10:1| 35.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.58 100| 0| 0

130209/1500Z 75 35027KT 15.7F SNOW 15:1| 3.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.233 10:1| 39.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 3.81 100| 0| 0

130209/1600Z 76 35026KT 15.2F SNOW 18:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.236 11:1| 43.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.05 100| 0| 0

130209/1700Z 77 35025KT 15.2F SNOW 14:1| 3.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.260 11:1| 47.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.31 100| 0| 0

130209/1800Z 78 34025KT 15.3F SNOW 10:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.212 11:1| 49.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.52 100| 0| 0

----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---

130209/1900Z 79 34025KT 15.5F SNOW 8:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.149 11:1| 50.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.67 100| 0| 0

130209/2000Z 80 34024KT 16.4F SNOW 6:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.088 11:1| 51.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.76 100| 0| 0

130209/2100Z 81 34024KT 17.3F SNOW 6:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.070 11:1| 51.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.83 100| 0| 0

130209/2200Z 82 33023KT 17.7F SNOW 7:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.051 11:1| 51.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.88 100| 0| 0

130209/2300Z 83 33022KT 17.5F SNOW 8:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.034 11:1| 52.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.91 100| 0| 0

130210/0000Z 84 33021KT 17.1F SNOW 9:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.022 11:1| 52.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 4.93 100| 0| 0

============================================================================================================================

now that is amazing. If this stays as is Im seriously contemplating a road trip.
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I'm not sure good any lake enhancement will really be.  850s are quite warm during the event...it's obviously plenty cold at the surface...but there would only be a small absolutely unstable layer near the ground.  Some of the big prolific enhancement events had -15 to -20c air at 850 dumping in during the storm...this one will not.

 

 


Yeah, per the model output I'd agree...but delta's don't need to be of "LES" quanties...ie ~13C....and I'll bet the lower levels end (up to 850) end up a bit colder, especially if the trend of a stronger northern s/w (in the models) continues a bit longer.  If the 12z Euro can show a capture just a tad further west, the whole pattern would have to slow down a few hours, and allow for some of the lower level air to become involved in the NW circulation.  Good stuff though!  We should all at least see some decent "real" snow...LOL!!

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The 12z GFS has 850 mb temperatures getting down to around -8C Saturday evening. That should be cold enough for some enhancement along the south shore of Lake Ontario. The best enhancement will probably be west of here where the NE winds have a greater fetch over the lake.

 

The 850's before that (as depicted) would probably not cut it to produce much in the way of sig. L. enhancement.....if we see a few degrees cooler...say Sat. 00z over the lake, then we should be in pretty decent shape...not to mention ratios would be, then, a touch higher.....

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The Euro is a bit colder during the later stages of the event than the other models...probably has to do with how unbelievably wrapped up it is.  Looks like about -11c at 850mb at 03z Saturday (Friday evening).  While there is still some synoptic precip/lift around.

 

If u want to see what lake-enhancement can really due, take a look at the Feb 58 KU.

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thats still 7-12" verbatim. What did the previous run show for BUF?

1.2" qpf.

 

BUF mentioned 3-5" for WNY this morning but they must have not paid any attention to the Euro last night lol.  Some of the models actually maximize snow near us and have relatively lighter zone over the Finger Lakes because the primary dies overhead and the inverted trough stay near WNY and slowly moves east.

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15z sref 24 hr mean accumulated precip for our portion of the storm.

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=sref&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&cycle=15ℑ=sref/15/sref_namer_063_precip_p24.gif#

just under an inch in BUF...just over an inch in Niagara and Orleans Counties.

seems like a pretty good event. Prob 5-10" which should be enough for a warning. Ratios will prob be low though with temps in the upper 20s/low 30s.

Hows the snowgrowth with this event looks? Does the omega look to fall in the denedretic snow growth layer?

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I haven't seen a forecast of 9-18 inches for a synoptic storm winter storm watch in quite some time from the Buffalo NWS.

They are usually extremely cautious with giving totals like this in synoptic events. They must be seeing some impressive dynamics or

lake enhancement.

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH

SATURDAY MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...THE NIAGARA FRONTIER AND COUNTIES SOUTH OF LAKE ONTARIO.

* TIMING...OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY

MORNING.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 2 INCHES OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...5 TO

10 INCHES FRIDAY...4 TO 7 INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND AN INCH OR

LESS SATURDAY...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF POTENTIALLY 9 TO 18

INCHES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY SNOW MAY RAPIDLY COVER ROADWAYS MAKING FOR

HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.

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