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heavy_wx

Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Spring 2013

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Received 5.5-6 inches in 3 hours last night here but the real show was north of here. A foot of snow by my parents house so far. Here is a few pictures my dad took. Here is latest spotter reports as well.

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=buf&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF&format=ci&version=1

 

 

febles.jpg

 

febles1.jpg

 

nice pics my mother in Amherst says a foot as well.

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You can tell now that directional shear is beginning to affect the lake Erie band. Its really widening out and snowfall rates are coming down. The band now covers all of Niagara County. Should begin its southward push within the next 2 hours IMO.

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BGM pulls the plug on LES Watches. This one seems to be lacking good RH(air seems much drier) but maybe it will come up a bit as we get closer.

LOCATIONS...CENTRAL NEW YORK INCLUDING THE SYRACUSE...AND

UTICA/ROME AREAS.

* HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LOW

VISIBILITY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...GREATER THAN 7 INCHES...WITH MUCH HEAVIER

AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN PERSISTENT LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS.

* TIMING...LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING

* TEMPERATURES...4 TO 23 ABOVE.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL WILL LIKELY BECOME DIFFICULT MONDAY MORNING

WITH HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE

INTO TUESDAY.

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Nice multi-day lake effect event in our neck of the woods from last Thursday through yesterday.  Good to see a broad area get in on the action for a change.  The flow really backed yesterday, allowing places like Grand Island off Erie and Clayton off Ontario to jackpot.  Looks like the Chatauqua ridge locations in Cat County get the overall jackpot from this event.  

 

One interesting postscript from the event - BUF exceeded its ENTIRE January snowfall (6.2 inches) in about a 2-3 hour period yesterday morning between 1 and 4 AM.  

 

 

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

SPOTTER REPORTS

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

1037 PM EST SAT FEB 02 2013

 

COLDER AIR POURED INTO THE REGION ON THURSDAY...AND THERE HAS BEEN

PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS SINCE THEN. THE FOLLOWING ARE STORM TOTALS

DATING BACK TO THURSDAY MORNING. LAKE SNOWS ARE JUST WRAPPING

UP...WITH SOME ADDITIONAL STORM TOTAL REPORTS LIKELY.

 

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

 

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS

                     SNOWFALL           OF

                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

 

NEW YORK

 

...ALLEGANY COUNTY...

   RUSHFORD              12.6   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   ALFRED                 3.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   WHITESVILLE            0.9   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...CATTARAUGUS COUNTY...

   DELEVAN               28.0   600 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

   PERRYSBURG            24.0  1000 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

   WEST VALLEY           21.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   FRANKLINVILLE         12.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   LITTLE VALLEY         12.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   RANDOLPH               8.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ALLEGANY               6.8   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ALLEGANY PARK          6.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   OLEAN                  3.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY...

   JAMESTOWN              9.2   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   RIPLEY                 6.8   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   DUNKIRK                4.0  1000 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

 

...ERIE COUNTY...

   SARDINIA              19.0   600 PM  2/01  TRAINED SPOTTER

   GRAND ISLAND          15.0   930 PM  2/02  FACEBOOK

   GLENWOOD              10.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   WILLIAMSVILLE          9.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   LANCASTER              9.4   135 PM  2/02  FACEBOOK

   COLDEN                 8.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   TONAWANDA              8.5   110 PM  2/02  FACEBOOK

   BOSTON                 8.1   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ALDEN                  8.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   NY BUFFALO INTL ARPT   8.0   746 PM  2/02  ASOS

   WEST SENECA            4.2   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   WALES                  3.9   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   BLASDELL               3.1   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   HAMBURG                2.9   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

 

...JEFFERSON COUNTY...

   2 E CLAYTON           14.5   622 PM  2/02  PUBLIC

 

...LEWIS COUNTY...

   PARKERS               21.0  1015 PM  1/31  MONTAGUE INN

   WEST LEYDEN           15.0   745 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK

   CONSTABLEVILLE        13.7   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

 

...LIVINGSTON COUNTY...

   MT MORRIS              5.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...MONROE COUNTY...

   NORTH CHILI            3.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   ROCHESTER INTL ARPT    2.3   746 PM  2/02  ASOS

 

...NIAGARA COUNTY...

   SANBORN               13.0   949 PM  2/02  TRAINED SPOTTER

   NIAGARA FALLS INTL A   8.0   823 PM  2/02  ASOS

 

...ONTARIO COUNTY...

   GENEVA                 1.4   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...OSWEGO COUNTY...

   FULTON                11.0   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   OSWEGO                10.8   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   PALERMO               10.7   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   2 N REDFIELD          10.0   600 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK

   MINETTO                8.2   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

   PULASKI                8.0  1200 AM  2/01  FACEBOOK

   SANDY CREEK            6.2   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

...WAYNE COUNTY...

   WALWORTH               1.5   800 AM  2/02  COCORAHS

 

...WYOMING COUNTY...

   WARSAW                14.8   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

   3 N SILVER SPRINGS     8.0   800 AM  2/02  CO-OP OBSERVER

 

$$

 

APFFEL

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some limited les potential for tuesday evening into Wednesday NE of Lake Erie as the flow backs to SW with the next shortwave.  Fairly low cap and marginal delta Ts should keep it from being too impressive.

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... Lake effect snow warning in effect from 10 PM this evening to
7 am EST Tuesday...

The National Weather Service in Binghamton has issued a lake
effect snow warning... which is in effect from 10 PM this evening
to 7 am EST Tuesday. The lake effect snow watch is no longer in
effect.

* Locations... north central Onondaga County... northern
Madison... and southern Oneida counties.

* Hazards... locally heavy snow.

* Accumulations... 8 to 12 inches of snow with locally higher
amounts possible. The heaviest accumulations will fall across
northern Onondaga County from Metro Syracuse northward
. In
addition heavier amounts are likely along with the border between
Oneida and Madison counties. Amounts will sharply drop off south
of these areas.

* Timing... snow showers this evening will transition to heavier
snow squalls by early Monday morning. The heaviest snow will
fall through Monday evening before diminishing late Monday
night. Snowfall rates of more than two inches per hour are
possible late Monday afternoon... which will impact the rush hour
Monday evening.

* Temperatures... in the teens tonight to lower 20s Monday.

* Winds... west 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

* Impacts... snow covered and slippery conditions on untreated
roadways. Poor visibility with near whiteouts likely in the
heaviest squalls.


Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A lake effect snow warning means significant amounts of lake
effect snow are forecast that will make travel very hazardous or
impossible. Lake effect snow showers typically align themselves
in bands and will likely be intense enough to drop 1 to several
inches of snow per hour for several hours. Visibilities vary
greatly and can drop to zero within minutes. Travel is strongly
discouraged. Commerce could be severely impacted. If you must
travel... keep an extra flashlight... food... and water in your
vehicle in case of an emergency.

Please report snowfall amounts to the National Weather Service by
calling toll free at 1-877-633-6772... or by email at
[email protected].

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Gotta like this from aft AFD from KBGM.  At least for MBY.

 

 

IN GENERAL LOOKING FOR 8 TO 12 ACROSS CNY...WITH THE FOCUS RIGHTALONG THE ONONDAGA/OSWEGO COUNTY BORDER...SOUTH AND EAST ALONG THEMADISON/ONEIDA BORDER AND THE OTSEGO/HERKIMER BORDER. OUR HIGHESTVALUES ON OUR SNOW TOTAL MAP ARE A TAD FARTHER NORTH OF WHAT THEMEAN WIND VALUES IN BUFKIT WOULD SUGGEST ALONG WITH OUR LOCAL WRF.FEEL BOTH OF THESE PRODUCTS HAVE HAD A SOUTHWARD BIAS THIS WINTERAND I AM MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT THE 925 MB-700 MB STREAMLINES SHOWALONG WITH THE ARW. THE ARW HAS PERFORMED THE BEST THUS FAR THISWINTER. 

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Another 4" in the last hour... up to a fresh foot and still coming down hard. Pure fluff snow.

 

Nice! We have about a foot or so on the ground now, most of it from this weekend.

 

538251_10152526347970273_145200034_n.jpg

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18"... lightly snowing now WOW didn't expect this haha. Was coming down 4-5" an hour.

Remember...official total is NOT adding up each hour (which is more of a "how hard is it snowing" rate measurement)...you must wait at least 6 hours and no longer than 12 hours for it to be an "official" total....

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Nice little bonus snow here this afternoon. Snowing moderatley with nice large dendrites. Very fluffy, prob 20-25:1 ratios. Already about an inch down today. If this keeps up for a few more hours by 8 I could see 3 inches or so

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Closing in on 3" of pure fluff here now. Nice steady light snow with huge dendrites since about 4pm.

 

Yeah has not stopped snowing all day. From 10 am to midnight with no breaks, never heavy but moderate snow for several hours and the fluff factor is definitely helping accumulations. Driveway has 3-4 inches of new snow on it! Rates have been quite decent a little bit closer to the lake on this one I think.

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Yeah has not stopped snowing all day. From 10 am to midnight with no breaks, never heavy but moderate snow for several hours and the fluff factor is definitely helping accumulations. Driveway has 3-4 inches of new snow on it! Rates have been quite decent a little bit closer to the lake on this one I think.

ya for sure. Nice little event.

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Per 12z GFS....a decent "snowstorm" for Upstate...in particular C/E NY....but WNY gets some....verbatium for C/E NY a 4-7" event....

 

About time eastern New York got some love...    you guys are cashing in like mofo's out west!    :popcorn:

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I don't have the euro anymore (at least at the moment) but seen that alb gets about 1" of precip on the euro..Boston sees about 3.5" lol

 

Here are the latest forecasts from the 12z Euro.

 

UCA:

FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -4.4    -5.6    1017      84      85    0.01     546     532    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -2.4    -4.1    1014      86     100    0.15     543     532    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -3.9    -7.8    1014      91     100    0.33     538     526    SAT 06Z 09-FEB -10.3   -10.2    1019      83      94    0.18     536     521    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -14.3   -11.7    1025      82      11    0.02     537     518   SYR:FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -2.1    -4.5    1015      83      95    0.01     545     533    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -0.8    -4.7    1013      91     100    0.35     542     532    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -4.9    -8.6    1016      91      98    0.42     537     525    SAT 06Z 09-FEB -10.8   -11.7    1021      82      90    0.12     536     520    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -12.3   -13.1    1027      84      13    0.01     538     518    BUF:FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.9    -5.3    1012      93      99    0.22     544     534    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -6.8    -7.8    1016      86     100    0.37     537     524    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -8.3   -13.6    1023      82      35    0.07     537     520    SAT 06Z 09-FEB -12.3   -13.0    1026      83      12    0.02     539     519    ROC:FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -1.7    -5.4    1013      89     100    0.11     544     534    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -4.4    -6.9    1015      92      99    0.52     539     527    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -8.1   -12.2    1021      85      94    0.15     536     520    SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -9.3   -13.1    1025      81       6    0.04     538     519    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -11.0   -12.8    1029      84      30    0.01     541     519    ALB:FRI 12Z 08-FEB  -4.9    -6.9    1022      71      59    0.02     548     531    FRI 18Z 08-FEB  -0.8    -4.7    1016      75      82    0.04     546     533    SAT 00Z 09-FEB  -2.7    -7.6    1012      88     100    0.28     541     531    SAT 06Z 09-FEB  -6.5    -9.4    1013      84     100    0.46     534     524    SAT 12Z 09-FEB -10.2   -10.7    1019      74      92    0.23     536     521     

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I don't have the euro anymore (at least at the moment) but seen that alb gets about 1" of precip on the euro..Boston sees about 3.5" lol

If you need to know how to work this interactive source (ie get Euro output) let me know.....start with the menu on the side and only click on model data, then drop down menu to euro output...

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

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If you need to know how to work this interactive source (ie get Euro output) let me know.....start with the menu on the side and only click on model data, then drop down menu to euro output...

 

 

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/

 

That only shows the model run, not qpf output though. You have to pay to see that I believe. Or there is a 1 month trial version I believe as well.

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