GaWx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yep, a real surprise to me based on the warmer earlier look. Because the 12Z Doc is warmer earlier, the AL/MS snow is much reduced. GA is about a wash. Basically the big snow is further NE and is a huge hit for NC, E TN, and N SC! The clown has 4-8" for a large area there and two small areas of 8-10" max with ~10" at Charlotte (bullseye)! For NC, this is probably the second or third heaviest snow on a Euro run this season! The 12Z Euro run is another good lesson in climo for the northern Gulf coast states. On this run, it isn't a Miller A..it is further north and consequently is too warm for sig. snow in these areas other than a decent amount (1-2") mainly in N GA on the backside as an upper low passes. For N GA/N AL/N MS to get a widespread major snow out of this, it really needs to go back to its further south track. Climo for NC is different and more variable since they're further north. They can benefit from many situations as they're often in the driver's seat being colder. However, a classic Miller A snow would also usually give them a major snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 The 12Z Euro run is another good lesson in climo for the northern Gulf coast states. On this run, it isn't a Miller A..it is further north and consequently is too warm for sig. snow in these areas other than a decent amount (1-2") mainly in N GA on the backside as an upper low passes. For N GA/N AL/N MS to get a widespread major snow out of this, it really needs to go back to its further south track. Climo for NC is different and more variable since they're further north. They can benefit from many situations as they're often in the driver's seat being colder. However, a classic Miller A snow would also usually give them a major snow. All that being said I'm taking this run with a huge grain of salt. I do like the idea of something coming on the end of this impressive cold making it's way into the south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It looks good now. If it keeps showing on the models and doesn't try to push it back again, then we can take it seriously. We've been burned before by great looking storms 10 days out only for them to disappear as we get closer. The positive thing is we have a good pattern on our side with the meterological aspect. I have mentioned March 1980 before. I would love to see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I mentioned yesterday that the 3/6 - 3/7 time frame needed to be looked at more than the 3/3. Imo this time looks more promising. Of course only 10 days away. All that being said I'm taking this run with a huge grain of salt. I do like the idea of something coming on the end of this impressive cold making it's way into the south though. I think you both are pointing to the only legitimate time frame in which anyone outside elevation would see the possibility. The tail end of that cold dozer would be the best time for anything to materialize for us in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I mentioned yesterday that the 3/6 - 3/7 time frame needed to be looked at more than the 3/3. Imo this time looks more promising. Of course only 10 days away. 8-9 days, this is Euros wheelhouse now! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 8-9 days, this is Euros wheelhouse now! :-) LOL, weenie wheelhouse! The euro in the 6-10 day is the new jma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I am really now just waiting for severe season to start but if we get something wintry in early Mar I won't complain. Not really expecting it but at least there is a shot it looks like. I'm with you on severe season.......tough to really get too caught up in any of these winter events since they've all been 8-10 days out it seems this year. Any indications of what our severe season may look like from this early on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For the JB fanatics out there - and those still holding onto hope. Says he want folks in the southeast to understand they are next for news making weather. Of course he then went on to reference snow flurries and a freeze for FL. I guess he forgot to check out the surface temps........lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well, the Euro looked interesting today, it sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What a cold looking pattern. Here a block, there a block, everywhere a block! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This is the southeast in late February, it may or may not do anything in the coming two to three weeks. Winter weather certainly isn't "common" even here banked up against the apps. With that said, any time you have an analog package showing 1960 more than once you should take notice. I would expect more runs of the models (like the Euro today) to start showing more in the way of potential storms. As always, time will tell.........it's not like we don't have anything on the table - even if we are late to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 What a cold looking pattern. Here a block, there a block, everywhere a block! Does anybody want to elaborate on the potential effects of this "double block" look that I've hearing about in a few places? What's the significance of that? I know the cold will be funnelled in but will that help make the SE stormier/wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Going off the ensemble guidance for the last few days. I will not be surprised to see the weeklies cold for the next three weeks. The power of the epo and nao working in tandem! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Does anybody want to elaborate on the potential effects of this "double block" look that I've hearing about in a few places? What's the significance of that? I know the cold will be funnelled in but will that help make the SE stormier/wetter? For one the "double block" will deliver plenty of cold air. Also the pna ridge looks to relax which will make things stormier. Also, we are looking out towards mid march. The stj will be more active as we change seasons. Once the upper low that sits over the lakes this week moves into eastern Canada storms will have more room to develop, instead of getting crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 For one the "double block" will deliver plenty of cold air. Also the pna ridge looks to relax which will make things stormier. Also, we are looking out towards mid march. The stj will be more active as we change seasons. Once the upper low that sits over the lakes this week moves into eastern Canada storms will have more room to develop, instead of getting crushed. Thanks for that. I didn't think of the "buying time" scenerio with the double block. But yes, if we keep the cold long enugh, things may be more favorable to get a storm underneath the -NAO that still exists, but is weakening. I thought the western block however would do the opposite and increase the PNA ridge. Or is the other block the Alaska ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Excerpt from the Huntsville AFD http://www.daculaweather.com/4_afd_hun.php THE COLD TEMPS NOTED ABOVE...COUPLED WITH A DISTURBANCE FORECAST TOARRIVE DURING THE FRI/SAT TIMEFRAME COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW TOTHE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE GFS SHOWED THIS YESTERDAY...WITH THE ECMWFJOINING IN LAST NIGHT...AND WITH ITS 12Z RUN TODAY. AM NOT THINKINGMORE THAN A DUSTING (IF THAT) AT THIS TIME...GIVEN IT WILL BE EARLYMARCH. BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWS HAVE OCCURRED REGIONALLY IN THE LATEWINTER...MOST NOTABLY THE MID MARCH 1993 SUPER STORM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I mentioned yesterday that the 3/6 - 3/7 time frame needed to be looked at more than the 3/3. Imo this time looks more promising. Of course only 10 days away. It has been one of the better 10 day snow total winters. Mine is just now reaching the bottom of my second story windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 EPS control update anyone? More cold and dry for the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 It looks good now. If it keeps showing on the models and doesn't try to push it back again, then we can take it seriously. We've been burned before by great looking storms 10 days out only for them to disappear as we get closer. The positive thing is we have a good pattern on our side with the meterological aspect. I have mentioned March 1980 before. I would love to see that again. boy if we had a fourth of the snowstorms that the models called for at 10 days out we would of had a successful winter for snow and I would be ready for spring. but we all know how those storms turned out. there then gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 EPS control update anyone? More cold and dry for the weekend storm? Control run has the 240 storm much like the OP. Goes seasonal then back to cold at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Control run has the 240 storm much like the OP. Goes seasonal then back to cold at the end of the run. Thanks, B. I'm guessing no-go for the super trough this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 boy if we had a fourth of the snowstorms that the models called for at 10 days out we would of had a successful winter for snow and I would be ready for spring. but we all know how those storms turned out. there then gone. Actually, I can not remember many good fantasy storms this year; especially with the GFS. I only remember maybe 2 for the EURO. I could be wrong on that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burrel2 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 3 of the last 4 runs of the GFS have shown a precip maximum of over 3/10's liquid this weekend in the Upper Savannah River valley area of SC. Does anybody have an explanation why it keeps generating this qpf when the upper air maps don't support it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 guys I see there is snow showers for the mtns of nc thursday, friday and saturday. sometimes when gsp does this there is a chance of a winter storm on the horizon. is there any thing showing of a possible storm 3/1-3/2 time frame. I know at one time there was the potential. is it still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Thanks, B. I'm guessing no-go for the super trough this weekend? I should have said it goes cold, to seasonal then back to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 This is the southeast in late February, it may or may not do anything in the coming two to three weeks. Winter weather certainly isn't "common" even here banked up against the apps. With that said, any time you have an analog package showing 1960 more than once you should take notice. I would expect more runs of the models (like the Euro today) to start showing more in the way of potential storms. As always, time will tell.........it's not like we don't have anything on the table - even if we are late to the party. Wxsouth agrees with him. I spoke to him today and said he thinks we really look good for snow lovers. More will be on site later he said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I should have said it goes cold, to seasonal then back to cold. Gotcha. Thanks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 guys I see there is snow showers for the mtns of nc thursday, friday and saturday. sometimes when gsp does this there is a chance of a winter storm on the horizon. is there any thing showing of a possible storm 3/1-3/2 time frame. I know at one time there was the potential. is it still there? .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... MOISTURE/CLOUDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY LATE IN THE DAYAS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. SOME SCT RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS MAYDEVELOP BY LATE WED ALONG THE TENNESSEE BORDER COUNTIES. PROFILESCONTINUE TO MOISTEN AND COOL OVER THE MOUNTAINS WED NIGHT WITH THEWINDS TURING MORE NW. THIS COMBINATION ALONG WITH SOME UPPER AIRSUPPORT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THEMOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS. AT LEAST SCT NWFLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THU AS WINDS AND MOISTUREREMAIN FAVORABLE...THOUGH COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGHTHE DAY THU. SNOW TOTALS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FOR WED NIGHT AND THUSHOULD BE IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE. .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... THE DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NEU.S. ON FRI WILL MOVE OFFSHORE...BUT WITH ADDITIONAL PIECES OFSHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING SWD THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND ERN CONUS TOMAINTAIN THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE AREA. AT LOW LEVELS...ENOUGHUPSTREAM MOISTURE WILL PERSIST IN THE COLD NW FLOW TO KEEP SCATTEREDUPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE WRN NC MTNS THROUGH FRIDAY.MEANWHILE...THE STRONGEST UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE WILL DIG OVER THE LOWERMS RIVER VALLEY...WITH THIS FEATURE LIKELY CROSSING THE EXTREMESOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT SOMETIMEON SAT. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE MOST VIGOROUS WITH THIS WAVE...BRIEFLYCLOSING IT OFF ON SAT...BUT THE GFS/CMC ARE ALSO EXHIBITING BETTERTROUGHINESS AND MOISTURE WITH THE WAVE. EVEN THE LESS AMPLIFEDMODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A FAIRLY POTENT VORT LOBE CROSSING THEREGION...AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES UP TO 6.5 DEG C/KM MAYSUPPORT ISOLD TO SCT SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MTNS SAT. POPS HAVEBEEN ADJUSTED UP SLIGHTLY FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.A RETURN TO NW FLOW UPSLOPE MOISTURE WILL YIELD ADDITIONAL LIGHT MTNSNOW SHOWER ACCUMS INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS BECOMESREINFORCED BY ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE ENERGY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Yep, a real surprise to me based on the warmer earlier look. Because the 12Z Doc is warmer earlier, the AL/MS snow is much reduced. GA is about a wash. Basically the big snow is further NE and is a huge hit for NC, E TN, and N SC! The clown has 4-8" for a large area there and two small areas of 8-10" max with ~10" at Charlotte (bullseye)! For NC, this is probably the second or third heaviest snow on a Euro run this season! You can follow the link to Brad Panovich's Facebook page if others want to actually see the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm still holding on to my .01 of precip for the weekend. Got to take pleasure in the small things....and that's pretty small. If it's going to be in the 40's I'm not so sure that will cool the column very much, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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