rduwx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 It was DT's old Double EE Rule - "When the 60 - 84 Hour ETA matches the ECMWF day 3-4 at surface and 500 MB, that is a pretty good winning hand. Take it to the bank." The ETA was replaced with the NAM in 2006. For the "new 4d" rule, I think Weather NC is saying if we get a storm, we should add a 4d rule, as in the Euro and GGEM run 4d-VAR data assimilation. One note on that though is that the GGEM was running 4d-VAR prior to its recent upgrade. So, 4d-VAR is not new to the GGEM http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39325-major-upgrade-coming-to-the-canadian-global-model/?p=2115870 Wow, it just seems like yesterday. I can't believe I've been looking at these models for 8 years. I think there's something wrong w/ me! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Wow, it just seems like yesterday. I can't believe I've been looking at these models for 8 years. I think there's something wrong w/ me! LOL! Time flies when you get old rdu...lol 00z GFS looked slightly better to me. There is actually some weak wave phasing in E TX at hr 138, but the wave is never able to go neutral tilt quick enough. Looks like there is a spec of snow near Columbia at hr 174, with precip off the SC coast....with an inverted trough look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Our Great Lakes low is rotating nicely into 50/50 position now on the GFS, but our storm wave is too hot on its heels....again, the theme of the past 2 winters of the flow being too fast and not allowing for ample amplification....long way to go though, this is an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The GFS continues to advertise very cold temperatures in the coming days. We've not seen a period like this all winter. The 00Z GFS continues the trend of NW flow snow showers for east TN and the mountains of TN/NC pretty much all next week. The 850 mb 0 C line is very far south out to 180, and we finally have evidence of a surface low and associated precipitation wanting to develop. Here it is at hour 180, quite a ways off the coast, but there is plenty of time for correction between now and then. You'll also notice the precipitation around Tampa. I didn't check surface temps, but it's definitely cold enough aloft for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I think there's something wrong w/ me! LOL! That should be a high verification score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The GFS continues to advertise very cold temperatures in the coming days. We've not seen a period like this all winter. The 00Z GFS continues the trend of NW flow snow showers for east TN and the mountains of TN/NC pretty much all next week. The 850 mb 0 C line is very far south out to 180, and we finally have evidence of a surface low and associated precipitation wanting to develop. Here it is at hour 180, quite a ways off the coast, but there is plenty of time for correction between now and then. You'll also notice the precipitation around Tampa. I didn't check surface temps, but it's definitely cold enough aloft for snow. I'd go farther and say we haven't seen this modeled look in two years. Cold and dry is possible but we are looking at negative 850 numbers for nearly a week in the ATL area. Can't say I remember that from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The GFS seems to be taking baby steps in the right direction. We've got a long way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 More data ingested: SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD0443Z SUN FEB 24 2013THE 00Z GFS MODEL PRODUCTION IS COMPLETING..8 DROP SONDES WERE RECEIVED OVER THE PACIFIC FOR THE 00Z NAM ANDGFS FOR THE WSR PROGRAM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Pretty wild look anyways for deep S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Excerpt from the very latest HPC Extended: http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php IN THIS PATTERN BY DAY 7 / NEXT SUN PACIFICSYSTEM ENERGY HOLDS JUST OFFSHORE THE PAC NW POISED TO WORK SLOWLYTO THE DOWNSTREAM WRN US MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE HPC PROGSSHOW SERN US COASTAL LOW POTENTIAL DOWNSTREAM OF QUITE ACOLD/AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER LEVEL E-CENTRAL US TROUGH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 This figures to possibly give Nashville and points East in Tennessee potentially 1-4 inches of snow with much higher amounts in the mountains. It will mostly depend on the strength of the spokes of energy that rotate across. Super Bowl weekend they dropped 4-5 inches here in a similar set up for shortwaves/clippers dropping SE into the trough. This looks like it could be the coldest start to March since 1960 in many places. That of course was a snow bonanza. Especially in upslope areas. I can't believe we'll see that this March, and probably not in our lifetimes. But it'll be nice to see several consecutive days of snowy weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Dang, I'm getting so close to going 24 hours under freezing Goofy has another humor map at 165. Gives a taste to every one but dry slots most of Ga., NC, and Va. while Michelle might be laughing in the flakes, or getting real close, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY18 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 00z euro looks interesting at 144hrs much much more stream seperation, northern branch is diving into the southern stream s/w with very cold air in place. Can't see past 144 on wunderground. It may not amount to much but it looks much much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 00z euro looks interesting at 144hrs much much more stream seperation, northern branch is diving into the southern stream s/w with very cold air in place. Can't see past 144 on wunderground. It may not amount to much but it looks much much better. http://hoot.metr.ou.edu/models/ecmwf/wind/500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 EPS control run took a baby step last night. had light moisture making it into NC...I think we could see the start of a trend today as others have mentioned about a possible cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I feel a good number of us posters outside the mountains will see some flurries out of the upcoming pattern at the least. I hope for more but there is nothing to strongly suggest that at this time. For the folks on the NW side of the Atlanta area I've seen this setup before and it usually results in at least some flurry action. I know that's nothing to get pumped about but with the way things have gone in the last two winters take it where you can get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12Z GFS still too far east with the western ridge and the eastern trough axis. Still, it was a different look than the 0Z run with the individual waves in the flow. Definitely an anomalous trough with potential. But it'll be nice to see an operational model start showing a storm. A couple of the 0Z ens members had one. A few more of the 6Z ens members had one too. But the op still sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12Z GFS still too far east with the western ridge and the eastern trough axis. Still, it was a different look than the 0Z run with the individual waves in the flow. Definitely an anomalous trough with potential. But it'll be nice to see an operational model start showing a storm. A couple of the 0Z ens members had one. A few more of the 6Z ens members had one too. But the op still sucks. Agreed, we just need that low to move out more NE into more of a 50/50 position, if it doesn't we won't have a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z Nogaps, snowing in Charleston, SC day 7/8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The GGEM looks potentially interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 More Goofy humor. Maybe Tampa gets flurries, Tenn. most of Ala. but only Candyman in Columbus, possibly Cory ,, then maybe Rome over to Clayton, the rest of Ga. nada. SC nada except for right on the N Coast, and NC gets blanked. Then for fun it fills the water all the way around Fla with precip, but none touches land except maybe Miami, lol. I wonder how long it takes to write code to get these humor maps At least one of my criteria for the Mole Storm is reached. 0 line down to Miami. It's getting closer, lol. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The GGEM looks potentially interesting. Almost looks like a shortwave digging that pops a lee side trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 The GGEM looks potentially interesting. My money is on the eastern carolina's and coast getting a nice dump out of this pattern! Cold and Dry back here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 12z Nogaps, snowing in Charleston, SC day 7/8. The GGEM looks potentially interesting. Where are you guys getting these products past day 6? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Almost looks like a shortwave digging that pops a lee side trough. Precip map says yes. It looks almost identical to the EPS control run last night of the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Where are you guys getting these products past day 6? Meteocentre http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur.php?lang=en&map=na&run=12&mod=gemglb&stn=PNMPR&comp=1&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&stn2=PNMPR&hh2=192&fixhh=1&hh=204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Where are you guys getting these products past day 6?Here is the Nogaps link.https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022412∏=850τ=180&set=All Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Here is the Nogaps link. https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=nvg_namer&dtg=2013022412∏=850τ=180&set=All Nogaps actually pops the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 Nogaps actually pops the storm. That is usually not a good sign... 216 on precip, not far from something big, origin still looks to be from development of that front draped across FL at day 7, map below is day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I want a gulf of mexico good ole fashioned snowstorm that moves east north east. thats not to much to ask. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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