tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Yeah I kinda figured it's just the 6z run but at the same time I thought other runs kept the block strong through mid March; just hoping it's not the beginning of a trend. The longer we can hold out, the more window we have for one more swing at the plate. Makes sense though that the run giving CLT a nice little snow is the outlier!! Bad pollen alergies, wish we could skip spring right to summer... If the pattern develops as currently projected, we may go down swinging, but.......................we should have multiple pitches to hit. Just gotta connect on one and who knows, maybe we hit a couple out of the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Blocking that is being shown as strong as it is on the modeling won't break down that easily SnowNiner. At least past occurrences say that it won't. Besides, it's an off hour run in the long range. I would pay more attention to the suddenly rock solid weeklies when judging the block out past day 7. I was getting ready to write the same..... The long range is in mid-March, though. It takes quite a storm to generate anything the later we go. I would focus more on the upcoming systems this weekend and then next week. This may be where we finally "cash in." My cashing in comment was based on that graph, too. Looks like we at least have through next week to look for opportunities, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is this a good look from the GFS Ensembles in the 10 day range (for what they're worth I know)? Trying to understand patterns better. There seems to be a double block, Greenland and Alaska and a split flow? in the south and the SE is in negative height anomolies (barely). On the other side there's hardly any ridge and it looks almost zonal. Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Is this a good look from the GFS Ensembles in the 10 day range (for what they're worth I know)? Trying to understand patterns better. There seems to be a double block, Greenland and Alaska and a split flow? in the south and the SE is in negative height anomolies (barely). On the other side there's hardly any ridge and it looks almost zonal. Thoughts? Not bad....Shows VERY strong block over Canada, with a weak ridge just off of the W coast....low pressure undercutting the ridge, and could send pieces of energy along the STJ. Another low sitting over the Aleutian Is....sometimes vorts will spin out of this and crush the ridge and sometimes they will ride up and over helping to dig the trough in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 12z NAM at 84hr has our weekend shortwave diving due south through Kansas. For us to get anthing good out of this I want to see that low up in the NE to exit stage right so our system can amplify more as the shortwave rounds the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 12z NAM at 84hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LOL...yep...posting any NAM map past 24hr qualifies for that for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 LOL...yep...posting any NAM map past 24hr qualifies for that for sure. Sorry I could not resist. Question tho, was is causing the gfs to show so much qpf over the sw mtns? It actually has .25 qpf on sat sw of Asheville. Is it because it closes off at h5 and tracks over us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks like we better cash in this weekend if we want to see something. ensembles! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sorry I could not resist. Question tho, was is causing the gfs to show so much qpf over the sw mtns? It actually has .25 qpf on sat sw of Asheville. Is it because it closes off at h5 and tracks over us? I think is because of the track of the 500mb low and the fact that it is strengthening and generates a vertical velocity max at 700mb right over the SW mtns. The divergence aloft at 500mb looks good in that spot also. It's like the system is just so close to being so much more you get these pockets of localized QPF maximums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I think is because of the track of the 500mb low and the fact that it is strengthening and generates a vertical velocity max at 700mb right over the SW mtns. The divergence aloft at 500mb looks good in that spot also. It's like the system is just so close to being so much more you get these pockets of localized QPF maximums. Thanks, It would be nice to see this trend a little stronger. As of now I would take the 2-3 inches it's printing out and call it a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 WxSouth If there's going to be a deep south Cutoff this weekend, Northeast vortex will have to get out of the way. Gonna be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shack Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Sorry I could not resist. Question tho, was is causing the gfs to show so much qpf over the sw mtns? It actually has .25 qpf on sat sw of Asheville. Is it because it closes off at h5 and tracks over us? I was contemplating the same question. Upslope doesn't account for this does it? Franklin, how does your part of Macon county do in the upslope events? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 949 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013 - 12Z TUE MAR 05 2013 THE EUROPEAN CENTRE PRODUCT SUITE HAS PROVEN STABLE ENOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO RELY PRIMARILY UPON ITS DETERMINISTIC MODEL, WITH MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN THE CASE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE WITH WHICH TO QUIBBLE THROUGH DAY 5 AMONG ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH THE NATION DOMINATED BY A BROAD, POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE. BY DAY 6, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENERGY WILL BE POOLING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS--THE REFLECTION OF A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. BY DAY 7, A NEW CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH A WINTRY WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BLOCKY PATTERN THERETOFORE WILL INSURE DEEP-LAYER COLD AIR IN SITU, WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE FUELING WHAT WILL PERHAPS BE ONE OF THE LAST GASPS OF WINTER FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I was contemplating the same question. Upslope doesn't account for this does it? Franklin, how does your part of Macon county do in the upslope events? No, this does not account for upslope, this is all from the Sat system. Most of the time not very well compared to the favored areas along the NC/Tenn line. Usually it's off and on snow showers with around 1/2 inch to an inch of accumulations. Sometimes if the flow is more west or southwest we can pick up a few inches. Being downwind of the Smokies in a true NW flow event, those high peaks just eat up most of the moisture. Are you looking for a good upslope spot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 http://www.daculaweather.com/4_hpc_extended_disco.php EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 949 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013 VALID 12Z FRI MAR 01 2013 - 12Z TUE MAR 05 2013 THE EUROPEAN CENTRE PRODUCT SUITE HAS PROVEN STABLE ENOUGH OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS TO RELY PRIMARILY UPON ITS DETERMINISTIC MODEL, WITH MODEST INCORPORATION OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN. IN THE CASE OF THE CURRENT FORECAST, THERE IS LITTLE WITH WHICH TO QUIBBLE THROUGH DAY 5 AMONG ALL THE GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS, WITH THE NATION DOMINATED BY A BROAD, POSITIVE-TILT LONGWAVE. BY DAY 6, THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ENERGY WILL BE POOLING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS--THE REFLECTION OF A PATTERN CHANGE BEGINNING WITH THE FLATTENING OF THE WESTERN RIDGE. BY DAY 7, A NEW CLOSED LOW IS ANTICIPATED OFF THE WEST COAST, WITH A WINTRY WAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE BLOCKY PATTERN THERETOFORE WILL INSURE DEEP-LAYER COLD AIR IN SITU, WITH AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE FUELING WHAT WILL PERHAPS BE ONE OF THE LAST GASPS OF WINTER FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE EAST. Aw, that sounds sad. Seems like that system mentioned next week is probably our last and best shot at seeing something. It's been said, we'll see if the blocking starting to relax at that time can bring the goods. Concerned it's a closed low. We know how those go. But they bring alot of moisture with them usually so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Aw, that sounds sad. Seems like that system mentioned next week is probably our last and best shot at seeing something. It's been said, we'll see if the blocking starting to relax at that time can bring the goods. Concerned it's a closed low. We know how those go. But they bring alot of moisture with them usually so we'll see. if next week brings us a decent system I'll take it as a grand finale, I'd love to have a 4 inch snow fall and anything else would be icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Somebody needs to pick up the PBP with the GFS and tell us how the ridge is more west and the trough closes off stronger and the QPF is better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Closed off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Here she comes, still positive tilt so this run won't be what we want. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 opens up at 108. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 QPF Max over Asheville at 114. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 More QPF at 120. Trough is all discombobulated. Strong vort, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 CLT and 74/85 corridor in NC look like the winners on this run. Although the QPF max is probably going to end up over GSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 opens up at 108. Surface maps reflect much more precip actually reaching the ground in the ensuing frames. WNC does decent on this event. I would estimate 2-4 inches for a large part of central NC back to the mountains. Not much makes it to the ground in N GA or SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This looks to me to be a pretty potent vort (and trending a lil stronger each model run). I would think that if trends continue, the qpf will beef up a little along and to the north of its track. Not talking about a huge event, but more widespread 2-4 with pockets of lolipops of 5 to 6 could happen with this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 CLT and 74/85 corridor in NC look like the winners on this run. Although the QPF max is probably going to end up over GSO. Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Looks great for you guys, the snow hole continues for RDU. Not worried. I bet the precip will be more or trend more to central NC like usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Triad special on this run. Obviously the sweet spot will jump around from run to run. Be looking for that low to stay a little closer to the coast for a longer period of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I would also add that this event has more potential the further east you go..........maybe maxing out it's potential near the coast in the Carolinas. At the very least, we have something legit to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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