chapelhill Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So what do we need in order to crowbar this one in? God to decide our deservability for satisying winter weather in these here parts this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So, tonight we have the GFS which peters out into nothing and the Euro which paralyzes the Mid-Atlantic. Great model consistency across the board. This forecast should be easy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So, tonight we have the GFS which peters out into nothing and the Euro which paralyzes the Mid-Atlantic. Great model consistency across the board. This forecast should be easy! well thats just what makes this so damn fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 0z euro was not far off for a lot of us on 3/6. It looks as if a trailing system phases w/ the lead around NC/SC border. The track is a little inland but looks to be a decent hit for east Tn./NC Mountains. Even N. Ga and extreme NW SC would see some snow. Minor shifts in the track on future runs could put a lot more of us in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Anybody seen the snow map for euro mar 6 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ummm...your QPF looks decent. Also it almost looks like the GFS is trying to form a lee trough in the upstate of sc again. image.jpg Well I have seen worse model runs this winter.....GSP looks like they are seeing what moto was seeing. .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...BEGINNING 12Z SATURDAY...THE CANADIANAND GFS HAVE A CLOSED 500MB LOW MOVING GENERALLY WEST TO EAST ACROSSOUR AREA ON SATURDAY. THE GFS IS A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED AND IS THEFASTEST HAVING THE LOW CENTER NEAR MURPHY NC AT 12Z WHILE CANADIANIS OVER MEMPHIS ATTM. THE NEW ECMWF HAS A SMALL CLOSED FEATURE AT12Z OVER OAK RIDGE TN THEN HAS AN OPEN WAVE PATTERN FOR THE REST OFTHE EVOLUTION. THE 850-500MB LAPSE RATE IS RATHER NOTABLE WITH THEGFS AS IT SHOWS INTENSIFICATION AS THE LOW MOVES EAST HAVING 6.55C/KM OVER FRANKLIN NC AT 12Z SATURDAY AND A BROAD SW-NE CENTER OF7.0 C/KM AT 18Z SAT. THIS BECOMES 7.2C/KM AT 00Z SUNDAY OVERGREENSBORO. THE ECMWF ALSO HAS INTENSIFYING LAPSE RATES BUT CARRIESTHE LOBE FARTHER SOUTH FROM NORTH GEORGIA AT 12Z SAT TO UPSTATE SCIN THE PM HOURS. A SIMILAR OCCURRENCE HAPPENED BACK ON FEB 16 WHENWE HAD MANY REPORTS OF THUNDER SNOW. THE CANADIAN MODELS LOWREACHES THE WESTERN TIP OF NC AT 00Z SUNDAY AND GENERALLY FEEL THISIS TOO SLOW. 850MB TEMPS ARE -5 TO -7C SATURDAY ON AVERAGE FROM GFSTO ECMWF. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST...ALL PRECIP ENDS OVER OUR AREABY 12Z SUNDAY ON THE NEW ECMWF...HOWEVER...ANOTHER LOBE OF ENERGYWILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THE GFS ON SUNDAY BRINGING OURAREA ONE MORE SHOT OF LIGHT PRECIP. THIS MAY BE OVERDONE ON THE GFSBUT WE ARE KEEPING SOME SLIGHT POP TO LOW END CHANCE OVER MTNS. THECOLD UPPER TROUGH FINALLY MOVES EAST OF OUR REGION SUNDAY NIGHT.AFTER A WEEKEND WITH TEMPS ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AND A SHALLOW UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREAMONDAY PROVIDING TEMPS ONLY 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. A LOW WILLBE CROSSING ARKANSAS AT 12Z TUESDAY ON THE GFS AND ECMWF. THIS LOWFEATURE WILL ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPS ON TUESDAY STILL FORECASTTO BE AT LEAST 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THE NEWEST ECMWF IS TRENDINGSTRONGER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW SHARPLY DEEPENING THE LOW ASIT TRACKS JUST EAST OF OUR AREA IN MID WEEK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The 0z euro was not far off for a lot of us on 3/6. It looks as if a trailing system phases w/ the lead around NC/SC border. The track is a little inland but looks to be a decent hit for east Tn./NC Mountains. Even N. Ga and extreme NW SC would see some snow. Minor shifts in the track on future runs could put a lot more of us in the game. In the past this is typically what we want to see, a Euro run that is over amped and thus NW only to trend SE as it got closer, but I have a feeling this storm is going to fizzle out too. Ens mean looks good at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Anybody seen the snow map for euro mar 6 storm? It dropped a marginal snow from I-40 to RDU. Certain still worth tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Anybody seen the snow map for euro mar 6 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can someone gve me a summary of how things look now? Are we now counting out anything for this weeekend and looking ahead to the 3/6 now? Seems the models are all over the place and no one has a real clue what will happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can someone gve me a summary of how things look now? Are we now counting out anything for this weeekend and looking ahead to the 3/6 now? Seems the models are all over the place and no one has a real clue what will happen.well, where do we start. The storm this weekend is still on the table and looks slightly better with each run. The storn next weeks changes every 12 hours when the new model runs come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can someone gve me a summary of how things look now? Are we now counting out anything for this weeekend and looking ahead to the 3/6 now? Seems the models are all over the place and no one has a real clue what will happen. I can pretty much say no one has a clue right now but no models are showing accumulating snow for our are at this time. And that is for both systems we've been tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 well, where do we start. The storm this weekend is still on the table and looks slightly better with each run. The storn next weeks changes every 12 hours when the new model runs come out. Thanks. From trying to catch up I thought the storm for this weekend looked worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The Euro Ensemble mean looks like a NC/TN snowstorm, from what I can gather from the 24-hour panels on Alan's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I can pretty much say no one has a clue right now but no models are showing accumulating snow for our are at this time. And that is for both systems we've been tracking. And we're only 4 days out. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can someone gve me a summary of how things look now? Are we now counting out anything for this weeekend and looking ahead to the 3/6 now? Seems the models are all over the place and no one has a real clue what will happen. Somewhere between not good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I've seen a bit of talk about my own personal friend Lee-Side Trough. Let me assure you that if I were fortunate enough to see another one of those...this Winter would go down as one of my favorites. It wasn't much and it didn't stay long but that was the most beautiful snowfall I have ever witnessed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 For the 00z Euro, the snowfall map based on a 10:1 ratio from weatherbell actually leaves the majority of NC out of it. Only the mountains and border counties get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Got the fork in my hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 For the 00z Euro, the snowfall map based on a 10:1 ratio from weatherbell actually leaves the majority of NC out of it. Only the mountains and border counties get snow. I haven't seen snowfall maps but just looking at the run itself it looks like our friends in east Tn. do alright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Got the fork in my handfor breakfast or lunch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Can we lock this thread up and direct discussion to the March thread now, to keep it all in one place? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I haven't seen snowfall maps but just looking at the run itself it looks like our friends in east Tn. do alright. 2-3", not bad but not great...NC mountains & very northern boarder counties of NC get more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jet Stream Rider Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Somewhere between not good and bad. Got the fork in my hand This is my thinking as well. Just not enough cold air staying around long enough, and poor storm tracks. Hope things change and we see another good snow event, but not looking likely at this point imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Of course the NAM gets close to something big now in the later hours of it's run. Question for those with more knowledge. NAM brings a pretty energized vort swinging down through the plains and comes close to phasing with the energy trekking across the GOM...if this phased would could it lead to a bigger storm and possibly impact parts of the south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Of course the NAM gets close to something big now in the later hours of it's run. Question for those with more knowledge. NAM brings a pretty energized vort swinging down through the plains and comes close to phasing with the energy trekking across the GOM...if this phased would could it lead to a bigger storm and possibly impact parts of the south? Snowing in the Gulf, south of Tallahassee at 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Guess that PV up north is really screwing us. Thought that energy might ride a little further east but it just heads straight south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 12Z Euro still unexciting. Few flurries/light snow AL/GA/Upstate SC Friday night- Saturday, but the extreme positive tilt of the trough is killing off any significant snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Doubt the EURO will pick up on the weekend system...GFS has it...I could see some winter weather advisories off the MTNS in SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 27, 2013 Author Share Posted February 27, 2013 Nothing impressive on models. Too many what if's and could have ,,almost, close words for this winter. Bottom line better than last year but not that good of a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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