PatriotWeather Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So what do we need in order to crowbar this one in? A crowbar....verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Any recon flights planned for weekend event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Any recon flights planned for weekend event? Doesn't look to effect the MA or NE so probably not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Doesn't look to effect the MA or NE so probably not. That was good, someone needs to have that as their signature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We want a look similar to the NAM, I know that is saying a lot given the model and range, but lets face it, we need that energy consolidated diving down through OK rather than balled up over TN like the GFS. The Euro's h5 evolution has a good bit of run-to-run continuity which is not a good sign, just checked the wundermap and vort placement/strength is pretty similar between its 0 and 12z run. Energy diving down through the Plains can be a good setup for us, but in this case we have a massive vortex SE of Nova Scotia which just flattens the eastern side of our ridge like a pancake holding the whole axis back left. While I did think this one had a better look than the 16th, it is quickly trending away rather than towards. Not only do the 12z deterministics (excluding the global) suck, the ensembles are even worse, very little support for a coastal especially the GGEM-GLB. Granted it is the weather and wait a model run or two, things will change, but I do not see very many scenarios at this point which help turn the long wave axis more towards neutral. Still another 48 hours before we have a handle on where the ull to our NE sets up shop, and specific interactions with energy ingested in to it, which will likely alter the weekend wave, then throw in the parcels in question still over data sparse regions, things could change, but the odds as always are not in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We want a look similar to the NAM, I know that is saying a lot given the model and range, but lets face it, we need that energy consolidated diving down through OK rather than balled up over TN like the GFS. The Euro's h5 evolution has a good bit of run-to-run continuity which is not a good sign, just checked the wundermap and vort placement/strength is pretty similar between its 0 and 12z run. Energy diving down through the Plains can be a good setup for us, but in this case we have a massive vortex SE of Nova Scotia which just flattens the eastern side of our ridge like a pancake holding the whole axis back left. While I did think this one had a better look than the 16th, it is quickly trending away rather than towards. Not only do the 12z deterministics (excluding the global) suck, the ensembles are even worse, very little support for a coastal especially the GGEM-GLB. Granted it is the weather and wait a model run or two, things will change, but I do not see very many scenarios at this point which help turn the long wave axis more towards neutral. Still another 48 hours before we have a handle on where the ull to our NE sets up shop, and specific interactions with energy ingested in to it, which will likely alter the weekend wave, then throw in the parcels in question still over data sparse regions, things could change, but the odds as always are not in our favor. The 18z GEFS members are bleak for this weekends event, I didn't see one member with precip over a trace. The 7/8 day event had a very strong signal but the majority were too far north with the low forming off the Va coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 which one? This weekend. A crowbar. A crowbar....verbatim Haha! You guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We want a look similar to the NAM, I know that is saying a lot given the model and range, but lets face it, we need that energy consolidated diving down through OK rather than balled up over TN like the GFS. The Euro's h5 evolution has a good bit of run-to-run continuity which is not a good sign, just checked the wundermap and vort placement/strength is pretty similar between its 0 and 12z run. Energy diving down through the Plains can be a good setup for us, but in this case we have a massive vortex SE of Nova Scotia which just flattens the eastern side of our ridge like a pancake holding the whole axis back left. While I did think this one had a better look than the 16th, it is quickly trending away rather than towards. Not only do the 12z deterministics (excluding the global) suck, the ensembles are even worse, very little support for a coastal especially the GGEM-GLB. Granted it is the weather and wait a model run or two, things will change, but I do not see very many scenarios at this point which help turn the long wave axis more towards neutral. Still another 48 hours before we have a handle on where the ull to our NE sets up shop, and specific interactions with energy ingested in to it, which will likely alter the weekend wave, then throw in the parcels in question still over data sparse regions, things could change, but the odds as always are not in our favor. Thanks guys. That's the main thing I've noticed as well. I've seen differences from run to run in the strength/placement/orientation of the energy diving into the trough, but the right side of it remains too flat or positive or whatever you want to call it (due to the vortex up north). With that like that, I don't see how it turns neutral or negative in time.... It would seem that the only real possibility is if the vortex up north hauls it out quicker than shown or we somehow get a strengthening closed low out of the trough. Not seeing big steps in either direction for sure at this point. But like y'all said, there's still time to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Thanks guys. That's the main thing I've noticed as well. I've seen differences from run to run in the strength/placement/orientation of the energy diving into the trough, but the right side of it remains too flat or positive or whatever you want to call it (due to the vortex up north). With that like that, I don't see how it turns neutral or negative in time.... It would seem that the only real possibility is if the vortex up north hauls it out quicker than shown or we somehow get a strengthening closed low out of the trough. Not seeing big steps in either direction for sure at this point. But like y'all said, there's still time to go. But I don't think it's unreasonable to see the GFS run from 0z/6z/12z come back and and a narrow strip of snow occurs this weekend. I know it won't be in our area as it doesn't snow here but someone N/S/E/W of us could get 2-3" of snow, IMO. My money is on CLT :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 But I don't think it's unreasonable to see the GFS run from 0z/6z/12z come back and and a narrow strip of snow occurs this weekend. I know it won't be in our area as it doesn't snow here but someone N/S/E/W of us could get 2-3" of snow, IMO. My money is on CLT :-) That's probably right. I just don't see this trending away to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I want thunder snow again... this every other Saturday deal is fine by me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 NAM at 66 already closed off over KS and the trough is a little sharper than 12/18Z. Have absolutely no idea what it will mean for the rest of the run, not that the LR NAM matters at all. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, it opened back up at 72. At 84, trough still way to positive and farther east than the same time compared to the 12Z GFS. That didn't end well. But it is the 84 hr NAM, so we can throw it out, I suppose. If we all lived in the southwestern Atlantic, we'd probably have 2 feet of snow for the winter, by the time this weekend is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, it opened back up at 72. At 84, trough still way to positive and farther east than the same time compared to the 12Z GFS. That didn't end well. But it is the 84 hr NAM, so we can throw it out, I suppose. If we all lived in the southwestern Atlantic, we'd probably have 2 feet of snow for the winter, by the time this weekend is over. 84hr NAM was just... Seriously though how do you go from what the GFS is showing to what the NAM now has? One weak little blip over TN and some energy looking like it's about to head to Tampa? Guess we'll see if the 00z GFS follows suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goduke Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I want thunder snow again... this every other Saturday deal is fine by me! Ive never experienced thunder snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Consolidation over TX is a good thing, it limits junk over the MS River Valley like the global and other operationals have, too bad it is the NAM working with components still outside of the box... compared to 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 84hr NAM was just... Seriously though how do you go from what the GFS is showing to what the NAM now has? One weak little blip over TN and some energy looking like it's about to head to Tampa? Guess we'll see if the 00z GFS follows suite. Ha! Hopefully, the GFS is more reliable at that range, although that's not really saying a whole lot. For what it's worth, the 0Z Nam, I thought, more closely resembled the 12Z Nam with the vort diving down in the trough than the 18Z. Maybe the 0Z GFS will follow suit with it's 12Z run, leaving the 18Z as the outlier. We can hope, but it's probably grasping. Sure would like to see the Euro throw a little precip our way and soon, or we're gonna be left with routing for the March 6 system to come back south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Consolidation over TX is a good thing, limited junk over the MS River Valley like the global, too bad it is the NAM working with components outside of its box... compared to 18z But either way, how in the world is that trough going to turn in time? It looks like it's going to come through more in the shape of an L than a V. Seems like the very best thing to hope to see is a closing off of the base of the trough and having it swing through as a strong ULL.... unless we can see the right side of the trough sharpen up better. But how in the heck is that going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Consolidation over TX is a good thing, it limits junk over the MS River Valley like the global and other operationals have, too bad it is the NAM working with components still outside of the box... compared to 18z My problem is it just looks like @84 it's gonna send it to southern FL. Of course it's 84 hours so it will probably be in NY come tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 But either way, how in the world is that trough going to turn in time? It looks like it's going to come through more in the shape of an L than a V. Seems like the very best thing to hope to see is a closing off of the base of the trough and having it swing through as a strong ULL.... unless we can see the right side of the trough sharpen up better. But how in the heck is that going to happen? It's not, but the short wave contained at the base could turn more towards neutral while the long wave orientation still hangs back left. Disagree with respect to the closing off, weak close offs tend to limit the torque on axis when compared to an open wave and consolidated energy rounding the base. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well we all want the energy to dive south and the NAM is doing just that...shoving it straight into the gulf. Trough is positively tilted. The PV in the NE is wielding it's influence even down into NC. This has the look of supression as that dang PV won't get out of the way. Good news...its the 84hr NAM. Next........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's not, but the short wave contained at the base could turn more towards neutral while the long wave orientation still hangs back left. Disagree with respect to the closing off, weak close offs tend to limit the torque on axis when compared to an open wave and consolidated energy rounding the base. I'd prefer a strengthening ULL, but that's not going to happen, so I'll defer to your base-turning consolidated energy scenario, since that's the one we're going we're going to have to route for. On to the rest of the 0Zs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Closed off on the Ala/Tenn. line at hr 78 of the 0z gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It opens back up at hr 90. At 96 there is just a small amount of qpf in southern NC. EDIT: Closes back off at hr 99 on the NC/Va. border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, its not what we want to see. But, it keeps moving towards a better solution every run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 There is another closed ull dropping south. At hr 108 it's in western Tn. Curious to see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 This is ridiculous looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 This is ridiculous looking. I was just about to post that, what the heck, pick a vort, any vort.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Our energy in the Pacific NW is coming in way south and much stronger than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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