franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Lol this run is insane. Everything is closing off and digging to waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I was just about to post that, what the heck, pick a vort, any vort.... I'm at a loss...But I will say the energy coming in for the 6th looks to be further south this run. Hopefully it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Our energy in the Pacific NW is coming in way south and much stronger than before.the lower the heights are in the east from this weekend's storm the farther south the next storm will be in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 117 there is another over S GA, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well, its not what we want to see. But, it keeps moving towards a better solution every run. Ummm...your QPF looks decent. Also it almost looks like the GFS is trying to form a lee trough in the upstate of sc again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I'm at a loss...But I will say the energy coming in for the 6th looks to be further south this run. Hopefully it stays that way. Well the blocking is great this run, this can't go north, it has to go south...I know famous last words. Crazy run, I think we can safely say this won't verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Ummm...your QPF looks decent. Also it almost looks like the GFS is trying to form a lee trough in the upstate of sc again. Sure does. Snowy week coming up! Lol the smokies are gonna have 2 feet. image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 E.T. is staring down the next system.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 E.T. is staring down the next system.... It's going to be too warm for the 6th system it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's going to be too warm for the 6th system it seems. Well the 2nd system got completely shredded by ET, we need ET to lift north and become a 50/50 not develop 57 closed vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Well the 2nd system got completely shredded by ET, we need ET to lift north and become a 50/50 not develop 57 closed vorts. It's trying to make a comeback. The energy is looking a little better at 162. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's trying to make a comeback. The energy is looking a little better at 162. The flow got very flat so it will just be a weak wave spitting out 0.1-0.2" of precip, maybe, this run was nuts, I am sure the ensembles will look much different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The flow got very flat so it will just be a weak wave spitting out 0.1-0.2" of precip, maybe, this run was nuts, I am sure the ensembles will look much different. Yep, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The flow got very flat so it will just be a weak wave spitting out 0.1-0.2" of precip, maybe, this run was nuts, I am sure the ensembles will look much different.with all the vorts diving into the eastern trough it just continues to deepen and keep the heights low. Without that broad upper trough holding on in the northeast this storm will pass by us to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Roberts facebook post says it all, good read, talking about the pattern coming up and crazy model runs we might see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Roberts facebook post says it all, good read, talking about the pattern coming up and crazy model runs we might see. I think we can mark this down as one of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 We need something to pull the trough axis back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's going to be too warm for the 6th system it seems. A 200 miles shift southward of the sfc low track to near or below the Gulf coast would be perfect for the Atlanta area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 This is ridiculous looking. Just to compare, this was the 6z run, I think the 0z run could have gotten there had it not gone haywire...the blocking on the 0z looks much stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 UK could be interesting, no precip map though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's a little comical, and a little bit frustrating when you have mets at odds. Robert is honking big time on a retro grading flow and extreme blocking. Meanwhile, back at the ranch......Larry Cosgrove is saying the blocking has been eliminated on the 0z (maybe he's taking about beyond March 7 bc it's clearly there before then) and only a modest chance of a storm for Appalachia and the east around the 7th. I think you are going to see this upcoming period make some skilled mets look pretty silly one way or the other. A split flow of sorts to go along with blocking will create severe headaches.......for many. The good news is it also means things can pop up with little notice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 UK does have the March 6th event, to north for our liking but atleast it has a system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 It's a little comical, and a little bit frustrating when you have mets at odds. Robert is honking big time on a retro grading flow and extreme blocking. Meanwhile, back at the ranch......Larry Cosgrove is saying the blocking has been eliminated on the 0z (maybe he's taking about beyond March 7 bc it's clearly there before then) and only a modest chance of a storm for Appalachia and the east around the 7th. I think you are going to see this upcoming period make some skilled mets look pretty silly one way or the other. A split flow of sorts to go along with blocking will create severe headaches.......for many. The good news is it also means things can pop up with little notice. Day 10 on the GFS looks great, ridge in the east and trough in the west, we would finally warm up....the angel of mercy to this sucktastic winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The GGEM looks to be an all-around failure, aside for a little bit of snow for SW NC/NW SC from the weekend system. EDIT: Despite the LP track, the GGEM might be snow for much of NC with the next week system (the 540 line is a bit hard to see), though it barely spits out any precip, so it's probably irrelevant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The GGEM looks to be an all-around failure, aside for a little bit of snow for SW NC/NW SC from the weekend system. EDIT: Despite the LP track, the GGEM might be snow for much of NC with the next week system (the 540 line is a bit hard to see), though it barely spits out any precip, so it's probably irrelevant. Yeah it looks like a miller-b that transfers right over NC, that's exactly what the MA folks would want, we obviously need it to transfer over SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Yeah it looks like a miller-b that transfers right over NC, that's exactly what the MA folks would want, we obviously need it to transfer over SC. If we want to look at it glass half-full, it was basically a Lakes Cutter at 12z, I believe, so it's an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 I am in agreement with Blacksburg on the weekend event. But would think it would be more serious outside of their warning area tbh. Taking it one storm at a time with a pattern like this. Models coming in a few degrees colder at 850 mb with the expected several day cold snap this weekend and early next week. GFS/ensembles/ECMWF hinting at a disturbance scooting across the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas later Saturday. In the past...these types of features seemed to be resolved better as the event nears...and some of them end up becoming impactful systems. Because of this...and considering the overall pattern...did add some slt chance probability of precipitation across the NC counties as a start Sat and Sat night. There is enough cold air such that snow would be the dominant p type... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Models coming in a few degrees colder at 850 mb with the expected several day cold snap this weekend and early next week. GFS/ensembles/ECMWF hinting at a disturbance scooting across the Gulf Coast states and into the Carolinas later Saturday. In the past...these types of features seemed to be resolved better as the event nears...and some of them end up becoming impactful systems. Because of this...and considering the overall pattern...did add some slt chance probability of precipitation across the NC counties as a start Sat and Sat night. There is enough cold air such that snow would be the dominant p type... Very much agree in this type of setup. If the models can hold or trend a little better with the 500mb look, the QPF should go up a bit as we draw closer (still 3-5 days away). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Sorry but Dr. No says no, still weaker and more positively tilted. Little if any precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 Damn. The Euro has some sort of Miller B scenario with our week-out storm and it's a beast. I can't really tell where it transferred its energy to the Atlantic with just the 24-hour panels. It had a 1012 mb low in GA at hr 168 and by 192 we had this. Looks like it's a historic snowstorm for the Mid-Atlantic. EDIT: Maybe it's not a Miller B. It just may track from GA up through NC to Eastern VA. I really don't know with just 24-hour panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.