tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Ok, so on a serious note, if we can't score with the NAO looking like this................we should probably just go ahead and hang our winter by the neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I call a "hiccup" on this run for the extended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I call a "hiccup" on this run for the extended. I would too. Just can't see that Greenland block get broken down like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I call a "hiccup" on this run for the extended. I would too. Just can't see that Greenland block get broken down like that. It sure is different from just a couple days ago, and compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On a somewhat unrelated note, the upgraded GGEM is still being outperformed by the Euro, UK Met, and even the GFS at the day 5-6 range, especially in the Southern Hemisphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well it is 84 hours on the NAM but it is in somewhat of agreement with the GFS. It brings some energy down and places it much further SW but it is a pretty energized piece. I'm starting to get excited about this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well it is 84 hours on the NAM but it is in somewhat of agreement with the GFS. It brings some energy down and places it much further SW but it is a pretty energized piece. I'm starting to get excited about this weekend. Yeah, it looks stronger and it's even closed off in southern MO/northern AR at hr 84. It looks like a good setup to me, but I may be missing something, so I don't want to say for sure. The energy looks further north than the 12z GFS, too. It will be interesting to see if the 18z DGEX gives us a weenie run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm afraid the orientation of the trough will be too much for this system to overcome. Last year we really did not have any viable threats but this year has resulted in several winter systems but for each one we have missed a widespread significant event because something somewhere was not quite right. I'm afraid that is happening again this weekend. Frustrating yes, but normal for these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm afraid the orientation of the trough will be too much for this system to overcome. Last year we really did not have any viable threats but this year has resulted in several winter systems but for each one we have missed a widespread significant event because something somewhere was not quite right. I'm afraid that is happening again this weekend. Frustrating yes, but normal for these parts. It has been the past two years. I hope we get out of this pattern soon and this isn't just an example of winters to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Euro ENS looks a little better than the op, more of ridge in the west and thus not nearly as flat as the Op. Still might not be enough, at this range we need it more suppressed. Euro Ens Mean day 7 Euro Op Day 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 I'm afraid the orientation of the trough will be too much for this system to overcome. Last year we really did not have any viable threats but this year has resulted in several winter systems but for each one we have missed a widespread significant event because something somewhere was not quite right. I'm afraid that is happening again this weekend. Frustrating yes, but normal for these parts. I agree this will probably not be widespread but if we can get a redux of the other weekend's snow I'll be happy. The same things were said about that one as well. The fact is almost everything has trended wetter and stronger this winter. This time we have the cold so I'll take my chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 EPS control run looked a lot better for this weekend. Had light precip over TN parts of SC and WNC. At 324 it had a big dog for WNC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 EPS control run looked a lot better for this weekend. Had light precip over TN parts of SC and WNC. At 324 it had a big dog for WNC. On AW it's still the 0z run, do you have it on another site? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 18z is faster with our energy. Has it closed over TN @87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 On AW it's still the 0z run, do you have it on another site? TBH it could of been. I'll have to recheck. I was using AW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's also further north @90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 It's also further north @90. Not sure north is what we're after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This run dumps a quick 1 - 2 inches on far SW NC and NW SC then it's game over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Not sure north is what we're after. Nope, but anytime you have a system like this it's like rolling dice with every run. Would not shock me if at 00z it gets stronger and puts GA in the game and leaves us out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 This run dumps a quick 1 - 2 inches on far SW NC and NW SC then it's game over.gfs has been very consistent with bringing the upper low thru sw nc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RAH long range THE POSSIBLE WINTER TYPE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE LOOKINGMORE AND MORE INTERESTING BY THE MODEL RUN. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTSA MID/UPPER LEVEL "CUT OFF" LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY DIVING ESEINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN... THENNE OVER NC SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SOLUTION HAS SOMESUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM AND EC... THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKCLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER... UNFAVORABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY... WE LIKETHE CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS CURRENTLYADVERTISED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WITH AT LEAST TRENDSSUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTERY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THISEVENT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE COMING DAYS. & MHX ANOMALOUS DEEP TROUGHING WILL BE IN PLACE THIS COMING WEEKEND ANDTEMPS WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN CLIMO. HAVE UNDERSHOT COOLESTECMWF MOS GUIDANCE BY SEVERAL DEGREES DUE TO WARM BIAS TOWARDS CLIMOIN MOS OUTPUT. HIGH WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S WITH LOWS NEARFREEZING. HAVE CONTINUED TO MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SAT INTO SATNIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW ROTATES THROUGH E NC...THOUGH ATTM MOISTUREPRESENCE IS QUESTIONABLE AS NO REAL SFC FEATURE IS PRESENT. GFSCONTINUES TO BE AN OUTLIER IN SPINNING UP SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST...OPER GFS LACKS SUPPORT FROM ITS 26/00Z ENSEMBLE MEAN...OPER ECM ANDECM ENSEMBLE MEAN SO HAVE CONTINUED TO KEEP NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPSIN GRIDS. IF PRECIP OCCURS...COULD CERTAINLY BE A RAIN/SNOW MIXINLAND AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPS COULD BE JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORTTHE WINTRY MIX SAT NIGHT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE TEMPS WILL BE JUSTWARM ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIP ALL RAIN ALONG THE COAST. UPPER TROUGHWILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. A SLIGHT WARMUPPOSSIBLE BY TUE AS COLD UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY FROM THE REGION...THOUGH INDICATIONS ARE TO BE REPLACED BY REINFORCING COLD BY MIDNEXT WEEK AS INDICIES INDICATE A CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMP PATTERN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lee_Sidedryslot:-( Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well gsp must be on to something for this weekend, had me p/cloudy for Saturday and a 20% chance of sn/rn Saturday night and now I'm down for sn/rn Saturday and sn Saturday night both at 40%. Unlike them to have that high of a % for my area this early in the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RAH long range THE POSSIBLE WINTER TYPE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE LOOKINGMORE AND MORE INTERESTING BY THE MODEL RUN. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTSA MID/UPPER LEVEL "CUT OFF" LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY DIVING ESEINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN... THENNE OVER NC SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SOLUTION HAS SOMESUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM AND EC... THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKCLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER... UNFAVORABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY... WE LIKETHE CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS CURRENTLYADVERTISED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WITH AT LEAST TRENDSSUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTERY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THISEVENT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE COMING DAYS. They also sound interested in the potential storm a few days afterwards. THE GENERAL PATTERN FOR OUR REGION WILL BE FOR PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF SYSTEMS (EITHER NUISANCE OR OTHERWISE)... ONE THIS WEEKEND... AND ANOTHER NEXT TUE NIGHT OR WED. THE LATTER OF THE TWO LOOK MORE PROBLEMATIC... WITH THE CURRENT TRACK/STRENGTH ADVERTISED BY THE LAST 2-3 RUNS OF THE OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN SUPPORTIVE OF A WINTER STORM POTENTIAL. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE GIVEN THE EXPECTED DRY COLD AIR IN PLACE BEFORE THE SYSTEM COURTESY OF COLD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED IN A FAVORABLE POSITION AND OF FORECAST FAVORABLE STRENGTH TO DELIVER CAA/DAA INTO OUR PIEDMONT DAMMING REGION... ALTHOUGH AGAIN PROGRESSIVELY MOVES OFFSHORE AS THE FORECAST PRECIPITATION ARRIVES. WE WILL NOT CARRY PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOW OUT DAYS 6-7 AS DETAILS WITH ANY SYSTEM THIS FAR OUT CAN NOT BE IRONED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 Well, I want to wish all of you north of here the best of luck in getting the weather you want before spring arrives! Looks like the GFS and Euro have squashed my hopes for a late good freeze and maybe a novelty flake, so I'll be vicariously enjoying/nail biting, through you all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 RAH long range THE POSSIBLE WINTER TYPE SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND APPEARS TO BE LOOKINGMORE AND MORE INTERESTING BY THE MODEL RUN. THE LATEST GFS SUGGESTSA MID/UPPER LEVEL "CUT OFF" LOW PRESSURE PROGRESSIVELY DIVING ESEINTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS SAT-SUN... THENNE OVER NC SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE THIS SOLUTION HAS SOMESUPPORT FROM THE LATEST NAM AND EC... THOSE OPERATIONAL MODELS AREWEAKER AND NORTHWARD WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW TRACKCLOSER TO THE NC/VA BORDER... UNFAVORABLE SOLUTIONS FOR ASIGNIFICANT WINTER EVENT. GIVEN THE CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY... WE LIKETHE CURRENT LOW CHANCE POP FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS AS CURRENTLYADVERTISED FOR SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY... WITH AT LEAST TRENDSSUGGESTING MORE IN THE WAY OF WINTERY WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR THISEVENT. MUCH MORE ON THIS POTENTIAL DURING THE COMING DAYS. This is the best setup we have had all winter for snow. Not only are the models showing it, but more importantly we have the meterological ingrediants in place for it. If we don't get at least some snow out of this, then we just have the worst luck ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So what do we need in order to crowbar this one in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So what do we need in order to crowbar this one in?which one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 26, 2013 Share Posted February 26, 2013 So what do we need in order to crowbar this one in? The NAM to make it stronger and stronger like all the ULL and cutoffs this year. Seriously I think people should be more excited with this one. Guess we'll see by Thurs/Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 The NAM to make it stronger and stronger like all the ULL and cutoffs this year. Seriously I think people should be more excited with this one. Guess we'll see by Thurs/Fri. I think it looks good. I wonder if he models are not handling the blocking well. RAH seemsto be more and more interested in this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 27, 2013 Share Posted February 27, 2013 So what do we need in order to crowbar this one in? A crowbar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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