Brick Tamland Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 The CAD is coming! RAH afternoon discussion states the chances of wintery precip is increasing but the amounts should be low (~.1). .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY... DAMP/COOL/CLOUDY WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK. FOR THURSDAY: A LONGITUDINALLY EXPANSIVE RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN BAFFIN ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES INTO CENTRAL/ERN NC. THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL DRIFT TO THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH SOUTHEAST STATES WHILE THE VORTEX NOW OFF OREGON ROTATES UP THROUGH NM/KS/NE... AND THE LOW-MID LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY DRY AND STABLE... ALTHOUGH HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH STRENGTHENING JET-LEVEL WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL MISS VALLEY (OK/MO/SRN IL/SRN IN) AS WELL AS OFF THE MIDATLANTIC COAST... AND RESULTING INCREASING UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM THE MIDWEST THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS. THICKNESSES ABOUT 10-15 METERS BELOW NORMAL COMBINED WITH THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AND A SHALLOW MIXED LAYER ALL SUPPORT HIGHS OF 47-54. FOR THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY: GFS/ECMWF HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THIS PERIOD WITH THE PRECIP PATTERN AND TIMING... ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO THE SE OF THE MIDWEST SURFACE/MID LEVEL LOWS. THE ECMWF`S LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES HAVE TRENDED COLDER IN THE WEDGE REGION FOR FRIDAY MORNING... ALTHOUGH THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN MORE CONSISTENT WITH THESE. MODEL-INDICATED SURFACE WET BULB TEMPS AND PARTIAL THICKNESSES BOTH SUGGEST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN (AND BRIEF LIGHT SLEET) AT THE ONSET... PRIMARILY ALONG/NORTH OF HIGHWAY 64 LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING... TRENDING TO ALL LIGHT FREEZING RAIN THEN LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AS THE ICE NUCLEATION REGION ALOFT DRIES OUT DURING FRIDAY. HOWEVER... THE NAM HAS NOTABLY MORE QPF THAN THE GFS/ECMWF (DUE TO MUCH STRONGER 850 MB CONVERGENCE) THROUGH FRIDAY AND DOES NOT DRY OUT THE UPPER LEVELS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON... WHICH DOES NOT HAVE SUPPORT FROM THE GFS/ECMWF. THESE TWO MODELS DEPICT BETTER UPPER DIVERGENCE AS WELL AS NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES OVER THE GULF COAST ON FRIDAY... SUGGESTING THAT THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL HOLD TO OUR SOUTH ALONG A CONVECTIVE BAND MOVING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT... A SCENARIO FURTHER SUPPORTED BY THE SREF`S VERY LOW PROBABILITIES (UNDER 50%) OF A TENTH INCH OR MORE. IN SHORT... EXPECT HIGH POPS BUT WITH MODEST QPF. PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A THIN GLAZE AT MOST... ALTHOUGH MUCH WILL DEPEND ON SURFACE CONDITIONS AND PRECEDING TEMPS... IMPOSSIBLE TO SPECIFY AT THIS TIME RANGE. AT MOST... WE WOULD LIKELY SEE A LOW-END ADVISORY OVER THE NRN AND WRN PIEDMONT. WE DO ANTICIPATE ESTABLISHMENT OF A STRONG DAMMING WEDGE THROUGH THE PIEDMONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE DRY AIR RIDGE IS REINFORCED AND STABILIZED FURTHER BY NEAR-SURFACE WEAK COOL AIR ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASING 850-800 MB WARM AIR ADVECTION. EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP QUICKLY IN THE EVENING WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AS UPPER LEVEL (500-300 MB) ASCENT INDUCES VIRGA AND SLOW SATURATION OF THE MID/LOWER LEVELS. READINGS SHOULD HOLD IN THE LOW-MID 30S FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NIGHT WITH GOOD RAIN CHANCES SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST. ASCENT WILL DEEPEN FRIDAY MORNING AS THE 850 MB WARM FRONT (AND LEADING EDGE OF HIGHER THETA-E) SURGES NNE TOWARD NC. WHILE PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE HIGH... AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW AND BE CONFINED LARGELY TO THE MORNING HOURS. FORECAST HIGHS FOR FRIDAY HAVE BEEN BELOW STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FOR A FEW DAYS NOW... AND FINALLY GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO RESPOND TO THE WEDGE PATTERN. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO THE MID 40S. > > Looks like it is trending with more precip and further south. This could get interesting Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I hear the euro control run is showing not one,not two, but three coastal's. Can anyone confirm any of them are any benefit to the southeast? I see two. One at 210 which still has the Miller B but there is a coastal. On the control run it would be all rain for everyone east of AR. The second one is at 316 and is a classic Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I see two. One at 210 which still has the Miller B but there is a coastal. On the control run it would be all rain for everyone east of AR. The second one is at 316 and is a classic Miller A.how do the ensembles look for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Looks like it is trending with more precip and further south. This could get interesting Friday morning. Most likely this will just be a minor event, but I think any CAD setup is fascinating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Allan's site is so frustrating sometimes. How do the Euro ENS look for blocking, PNA, etc. In the LR? I get Page Cannot Be Displayed, which is not an uncommon occurrence over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Allan's site is so frustrating sometimes. How do the Euro ENS look for blocking, PNA, etc. In the LR? I get Page Cannot Be Displayed, which is not an uncommon occurrence over there. From the free Euro site looks good, blocking with ridging in the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 From the free Euro site looks good, blocking with ridging in the west. Thanks man. I'll take a look at the Euro site...sounds good, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 is the March 3 and 4 storm still there? know its a long way off but is there cold air to go with the miller a if its still showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Per the 12Z Tue 2/19 GFS and Euro ensemble runs and thanks to impressive higher latitude blocking, much of the SE could easily be cold enough for wintry precip. if we were to get a good tracking Miller A in early March. The Euro ens. is actually the colder of the two. It has KATL at ~8 C (14 F) colder than normal at 850 for the period 3/2-6 or -2C! That is about 4 C below the average for mid January and would be significantly colder than any five day averaged 850's for this winter to date! Bottom line: There's no reason to fret about cold air at this point assuming a Miller A were to occur in early March since we've got about the best setup this winter being progged on the model consensus. We'll see what actually verifies, but the cold and potential storminess would be well supported by the analogs. I'm getting ready for my daily walk. Later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 is the March 3 and 4 storm still there? know its a long way off but is there cold air to go with the miller a if its still showing? The first week of March is loaded with potential. That's really all that matters at this point. We'll work out the details later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18Z Goofy very far south Miller A 3/3-4. Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18Z Goofy very far south Miller A 3/3-4. Wow! Yeah, it suppresses the hell out of the 2/28 system, as well. This is a GFS bias, though, isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18Z Goofy very far south Miller A 3/3-4. Wow! That's the look we want to see right now. The question will be can the goofy be consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yeah, it suppresses the hell out of the 2/28 system, as well. This is a GFS bias, though, isn't it? Wow!!! Historic very far south snowstorm 3/5-6!!!!! So, two far south Miller A's 3/3-6! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow!!! Historic very far south snowstorm 3/5-6!!!!! So, two far south Miller A's 3/3-6! That would be 2-4 for ATL....4-8 for SAV....and 4-8 for all of NC/SC..If that happens I'll eat a shoe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's THREE Miller As in a week span at the beginning of March, for those keeping track at home. Talk about potential..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's THREE Miller As in a week span, for those keeping track at home. Talk about potential..... It's also the GFS past 200 hours. I'm as optimistic as they get but I'll believe that look when we're 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Ok, guys....somebody post a map or two for those unfortunate souls who have to be at the NC State/FSU game and don't have access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It sounds like individual Ensemble members should be fun to look at from the 18 Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nraleigh Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On his video this morning JB says around March 3 to the fifth or so, he thinks there will be a huge East Coast storm, he said he thinks it could be a big winter storm for NC and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 It sounds like individual Ensemble members should be fun to look at from the 18 Z GFSsub 980 lows running up 95! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow!!! Historic very far south snowstorm 3/5-6!!!!! So, two far south Miller A's 3/3-6! ???? Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's THREE Miller As in a week span at the beginning of March, for those keeping track at home. Talk about potential..... March 1960!!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 March 1960!!! lol Yep, and that analog is showing up on the ensembles, along with Feb 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 can someone post a map of this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 That's THREE Miller As in a week span at the beginning of March, for those keeping track at home. Talk about potential..... More bust potential than a 12 year old Dolly Parton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The potential looks promising, but can it wait until after the 10th? If a historic storm hits while I'm on my cruise the first week of March I may lose it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That's THREE Miller As in a week span at the beginning of March, for those keeping track at home. Talk about potential..... More bust potential than a 12 year old Dolly Parton. Pure Distilled Win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I'll take some fantasy land flakes in north Fla. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't see any thing. Someone post a map of the historic storm it shows. Edit: Nevermind. Ha even I get some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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