Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Im confused what were talking about lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Im confused what were talking about lol. well, i think their talking about the precip that may or may not fall as snow around friday/Saturday-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Im confused what were talking about lol. Do you mean the last few posts? I was posting about what 12z Euro is showing for tomorrow for the Harrisburg area. Both NAM and Euro have just over .10" QPF as a shortwave swings around the trough that will move in for the weekend. I just think that temps will be too warm for any accumulating snow if some should reach the ground with highs in the mid to upper 40s around here as well as the speed and not very organized nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Guys if you have a bare yard like mine, stay out of the NYC and NE threads...they may get hammered again haha. I have a swamp for a yard right now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Latest SREF is hardcore trolling, 6" for LNS, 5" for MDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Nam way diff. again...shows next to nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Latest SREF is hardcore trolling, 6" for LNS, 5" for MDT SREF waffling again, over zealous with snow and cold 12 - 24 hours out. $20 says <1" of snow happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Sref has been goofy lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 SREF waffling again, over zealous with snow and cold 12 - 24 hours out. $20 says <1" of snow happens. That sounds about right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Latest SREF is hardcore trolling, 6" for LNS, 5" for MDT Well that explains that, holy crap. There are a couple rogue members in the ensemble that think this is gonna be Feb 5-6th + Feb 10, 2010 haha. SREF plumes have 3 members over 25" and 1 member in the low 40s at MDT. Thats in inches of snow btw haha...I thought for sure I had something else selected. Eliminating these insane members brings the mean between the rest down to 2 inches, and that's leaving in the 4th highest member that has nearly a foot. The rest of the ensemble members are 5" and under yielding a 1 inch mean. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index.php?YMD=20130214&RT=15&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=HAR&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=8&mLAT=39.78084137704927&mLON=-75.94615615234375&mTYP=roadmap Here are the Ewall probs at hour 57: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Latest SREF is hardcore trolling, 6" for LNS, 5" for MDT she is coming around....don't give up this will be MDT biggest storm of the season! just maybe a WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 she is coming around....don't give up this will be MDT biggest storm of the season! just maybe a WSW pro tip: setting your expectations low avoids disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 pro tip: setting your expectations low avoids disappointment I have been lurking for years so I get it.....this is one that stands out to me. I'll be disappointed most likely. But a lot of waffling right now where our area could see nothing to a full fledge blizzard 24-36 hours from now. I like our chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Is this thing a storm or a sw around a trough? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 NAM says lolz New England you want a snowstorm go to Cape Hatteras lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Is this thing a storm or a sw around a trough? shortwave...arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This is seriously f'n with our drive to NYC and back Saturday. Thanks, Mother Nature! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I think youll be alright most show non event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It's not the local snowfall that I'd be worried about, totals increase in the NY/NJ area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 pro tip: setting your expectations low avoids disappointmentThe way I look at it is....every inch we pick up, adds to our yearly total. We have had a couple good storms this season.Now if we can get you Boyz's south of us some snow it will be a good winter!!! Mag & Jamie seem to be holding their own this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 updated forecast for adams county: FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF SNOW...MAINLY IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOWACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDSAROUND 5 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. sign me up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 CTP really got bullish on the snow map. Looks almost like advisory level event for York/Lancaster counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol nam vs. ctp...this year who knows how it will turn out this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z GFS blows up off the coast early Sunday, Friday storm is nada. Too east for us big a big special for LI and SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol they will probably get a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 You would think 24 hrs out the Nam would be more locked in on a solution. Sure changed from the map CTP put out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Very handsome rainstorm for Tuesday..lol. A cinder cleaner if you will. We ve had like 2 inches of snow in last few weeks but more cinders than I can remember. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 New NAM and latest HRRR runs do show a decent precip hit just south of Harrisburg, more in the York/Lancaster region and south. But, I believe it will be too warm for any accumulating snow. I even just saw JB post about 6" snow north of BWI... they are currently at 41 at 9am so I am not buying it... I just think we see a nice warm up early today with temps quickly climbing into the mid to upper 40s before the clouds roll in. The increase in clouds after the early warm up will trap enough warmth for a slow cooling... Dew point temperatures are already 30/32 across the region so while we will not lose much precip to evaporational cooling as we did the other day, it will not help cool us enough for accumulations. AOO/JST/UNV region most likely to see an inch or so if they can get enough moisture to develop something there but not so much where the heart of the precip will be in southeastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Lol they will probably get a foot. Right now somewhere on a meteorite board someone from Williamsport is bitching about how between the Siberian 1908 fireball and today, Russia gets all the good meteor hits and IPT gets NADA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Very handsome rainstorm for Tuesday..lol. A cinder cleaner if you will. We ve had like 2 inches of snow in last few weeks but more cinders than I can remember. Here it's a mix. Was a mix for you except for 06 GFS. Euro shows mostly frozen for IPT. Not much precip though. .2 on the Euro. Not much of a rainstorm on those. Why do you think you are getting a heavy rainstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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