Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 It really is a pretty astounding 24 hours for the pure Meteorologists... Over a week of failing to make 32F, then pending a warm boundary passage the temp may soar through the middle 50s, only to crash back to freezing in perhaps as little as 12 additional hours. Also, if QPF makes 2" of liq, quick response streams and rivers might bank full. The problem is that the ground is rock solid frozen, and will remain that way through the warm period for not having nearly enough time to thaw. We are seeing that in the MW/GL with large areas under flood advisories. Frozen ground and a convective events are a bad mix. Wind: Just eye-balling the NAM's FRH grid at Logan shows a 3C temperature depression under the 900mb level, suggesting that some protective inversion exists. That may be from SW flow coming off of recently chilled shelf waters to the south, because looking at the large synoptic overview ... it doesn't seem there is any stopping warm sector air from intruding all the way to Maine. So it isn't abundantly clear from what other source that low level inversion would be coming from other than cooling effect off the LI Sound and adjacent waters. In fact, that could screw around with the verification of wind for other sea-levels locales on the Cape and Islands, if those areas are also under a bit of inversion. Higher elevations over interior eastern/southern areas one would think would be interesting. Also, this has a ribbon-echo squall written all over it, and could see a significant pulse of momentum transfer as that wends it's way east just out ahead of the cold front. D7+ narrowly misses the region with the biggest snow event in years on this op 12z GFS. It's been flagged in the runs going back a few cycles, but the other guidance only so-so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Very vulnerable record high tomorrow at ORH. Only 53F. There's a pretty good shot at breaking it. Current MOS (both MAV and MET) and NWS have a high of 51F...but if we can thin the cloudsenough for some dim sun or even some breaks in the clouds, we should soar well into the mid-upper 50s. Good shot at breaking the record regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Hey speak for yourself, I'll be putting down my Snow Protector brand tarps down over the yard to keep my snow pack in place. Snow Protector is really the best brand for this because they use space age technology to capture the cooling power of the snow and the warmer air above to create a dome of supercharged cold air layered between the tarp and the snow pack. The rain harmless rolls off of the tarp into easy to empty buckets which can be kept to water your tomatoes in the summer. The first tarp was only 29.99 for a 4 by 6 square. Because I ordered quickly they threw in 4 bigger tarps and a Slap Chop for only 34.99. It worked great during the last torch. You know, the ground is pretty cold (attm) and I'm wondering if a tarp might insulate the snow a little. It might act like a flat cooler. I for one am thinking that this will make for some easy tapping next month! I'd prefer to have some snow on the ground, but I could take advantage of the lack of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Will~ First off congratulations, secondly is this a widespread 1-2 inches of rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Will~ First off congratulations, secondly is this a widespread 1-2 inches of rain? Thanks. For western half of SNE I think most should crack an inch of rain or at least get close. Eastern sections might be iffy for that as the forcing is weakening as it moves northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Wow, check out the warmth to our SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Very vulnerable record high tomorrow at ORH. Only 53F. There's a pretty good shot at breaking it. Current MOS (both MAV and MET) and NWS have a high of 51F...but if we can thin the cloudsenough for some dim sun or even some breaks in the clouds, we should soar well into the mid-upper 50s. Congrats on breaking the record . Enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
noforsnow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Arriving in BOS early afternoon tomorrow, then heading up to Concord, NH for a few days. Will definitely appreciate the relative warmth upon arrival! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Wow, check out the warmth to our SW it makes you wonder if the models are actually underdone by this some. Looking at N VA, 70s dude! Combining that facet with the fact that there is laminar deep layer fast flow from the SW you gotta wonder if 62 or 63 is really all that out of reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 it makes you wonder if the models are actually underdone by this some. Looking at N VA, 70s dude! Combining that facet with the fact that there is laminar deep layer fast flow from the SW you gotta wonder if 62 or 63 is really all that out of reach. If we get sunshine tomorrow, the CP could def crack 60F..in fact, it would be almost a certainty. Gonna be tough though with the low level cold resisting and having that flow out of the south over the ocean...that is gonna want to form a lot of low clouds/fog. We'll just have to see how tough the inversion holds overnight/early tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Marginal freezing rain situation possible for interior Mass. and even portions of northern Conn. tonight. Not sure the HRRR is quite right, but backs temperatures into the upper 20's in the area. Right now, BDL is 33/29. DXR is at 37, but POU has soared to 48! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NBD but i noticed euro has been slower and slower w the cfront thur am. just over the last several days, might be just a few hours but i watched the 12z thur 850 temps go from -4 to +8 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Marginal freezing rain situation possible for interior Mass. and even portions of northern Conn. tonight. Not sure the HRRR is quite right, but backs temperatures into the upper 20's in the area. Right now, BDL is 33/29. DXR is at 37, but POU has soared to 48! box mentioned this in am disco, too bad i wasn't further inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 NBD but i noticed euro has been slower and slower w the cfront thur am. just over the last several days, might be just a few hours but i watched the 12z thur 850 temps go from -4 to +8 now.The euro has been the slowest the last few days too I believe. Looks like most of the rain will now be focused over WNE and NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The euro has been the slowest the last few days too I believe. Looks like most of the rain will now be focused over WNE and NY. yes SREF paint that picture as well. Wonder if all that powda around tim kelley ^^ will go POOF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 BTV WRF model clobers Rome,ny over to Southern adirondacks , over to Northern tactonics (dorset,vt general area) and the central greens (killngton) NE thru the white mountains, just a snow pack DEMOLISHER http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 yes SREF paint that picture as well. Wonder if all that powda around tim kelley ^^ will go POOF Near 100% chance. Gotta take it when you can get it this winter. Looks mid-winter awesome out there with snow clinging to all the trees and branches... but its on borrowed time. Will enjoy one more "snowy" looking evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Freezing Rain Advisory is now up for most of interior Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 ya, scott it's storms like wed pm's that really just are complete and utter snow pack crushers. The lil bright spot is that heaviest rain looks more toward central greens ....with like 1 inch of rain for you. haven't look'd extremely close but ya that's not good. Total trail count in NNE mtns today will be interesting to make a chart of compared to thursday or friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 37 dense fog looks like round one of rain coming in just in time for rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 BTV WRF model clobers Rome,ny over to Southern adirondacks , over to Northern tactonics (dorset,vt general area) and the central greens (killngton) NE thru the white mountains, just a snow pack DEMOLISHER http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/4kmwrf/ The 5.74 inches of qpf hitting Killington would likely prove problematic should the WRF verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Can't imagine that the cold will hold on too long with that onslaught of ridculous warmth on our doorstep. Probably a quick burst of zr and then torch--that's my prediction. 28.5/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Lets just get the wind damage in Sne and let the rains hit nne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Lets just get the wind damage in Sne and let the rains hit nne 3-5"+ of torching rains will be dangerous up there in the mtns. I'm going to unpin this thread and move the torch storm posts into the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Wow, check out the warmth to our SW no, I won't thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 HWW up for all. Expect high end wind damage from this. Congrats to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 kev will there be anything left of the snow piles on thurs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 HWW up for all. Expect high end wind damage from this. Congrats to all Where do you see that, looks like BOX has nothing for the three northern counties in CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Where do you see that, looks like BOX has nothing for the three northern counties in CT?Its coming. Check the AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 33 f right now according to gfs car thermo...too bad we couldn't tick colder after precip starts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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