HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Meanwhile, in fantasy land, the southern stream is quite intense in the SW US 2/7-2/9 with a big 4-corners low. The GFS has the PV dropping down for a second visit 2/8-2/10 into the Hudson Bay. The wave exiting off the NE coast that weekend as well as a new wave entering west Canada, through the PNA ridging, are big factors in how the northern stream interacts with the southern low. My thinking is 60/40 at this point that this is NOT an inland runner on 2/10. If the placement of large-scale features is closer to the GFS, then I could see a more widespread, significant snowfall from this massive Pacific low / jet. I can't wait for the euro to have something entirely different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Meanwhile, in fantasy land, the southern stream is quite intense in the SW US 2/7-2/9 with a big 4-corners low. The GFS has the PV dropping down for a second visit 2/8-2/10 into the Hudson Bay. The wave exiting off the NE coast that weekend as well as a new wave entering west Canada, through the PNA ridging, are big factors in how the northern stream interacts with the southern low. My thinking is 60/40 at this point that this is NOT an inland runner on 2/10. If the placement of large-scale features is closer to the GFS, then I could see a more widespread, significant snowfall from this massive Pacific low / jet. I can't wait for the euro to have something entirely different. even with higher heights in the east, if we get that temporary split flow, something can phase or amplify much more easily and take a favorable track...I think we have both never written off that period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 even with higher heights in the east, if we get that temporary split flow, something can phase or amplify much more easily and take a favorable track...I think we have both never written off that period Nope, we haven't. And the 2/20 period could also become interesting if the latest Roundy guidance is correct with a slower IO forcing signal. The reason the CFS is so cold late Feb is because it barely gets the forcing out of the IO, which this time of year doesn't mean warmth. There will probably be a torch though at some point to end the month / early March once we get forcing over Indonesia. How quickly do we come out of that is another interesting question. I don't think the end of this winter is as clear cut as last year at this time which clearly said "warmth and 80s are on the way for March." By the way, Feb 8-12 has above normal heights on the GFS suite because they are phasing the southern low early and taking the inland track solution. This is certainly a possibility; but, if the northern stream continues to contain formidable waves under the sinking Hudson Vortex, I find it hard to believe the southern low will cut inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wonder what the Euro does with that Feb 6 s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wonder what the Euro does with that Feb 6 s/w we are out to 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has a 1-2" event monday evening/night again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Euro has a 1-2" event monday evening/night again Hmm, that's sorta interesting. Wettest model, but we know how that turns out vs. GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Hmm, that's sorta interesting. Wettest model, but we know how that turns out vs. GFS It is the best model in that range and it is the driest in terms of bias...I would pay attention Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I wonder what the Euro does with that Feb 6 s/w it is like 1-2"...miller B esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 it is like 1-2"...miller B esque So two potential 1-2 inch events? that'd be pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 So two potential 1-2 inch events? that'd be pretty good. through 2/6....yes...plus the clippers this weekend...hopefully 1 of the 4 perform Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 through 2/6....yes...plus the clippers this weekend...hopefully 1 of the 4 perform I like the last one best as the vort goes to our south and it looks like a low develops to our south but having multiple chances to score is better than just one. I'm much less optimistic about the system that digs into the southwest than HM but I pretty much expressed my thoughts yesterday. I hope the southern stream energy lasts beyond the 14 or so as we should flip back to below normal again after our warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I like the last one best as the vort goes to our south and it looks like a low develops to our south but having multiple chances to score is better than just one. I'm much less optimistic about the system that digs into the southwest than HM but I pretty much expressed my thoughts yesterday. I hope the southern stream energy lasts beyond the 14 or so as we should flip back to below normal again after our warm up. the day 8 event doesnt look great as of now...but it is more of a SWFE than a cutter so we never really torch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the day 8 event doesnt look great as of now...but it is more of a SWFE than a cutter so we never really torch... does it show any snow? or all rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 through 2/6....yes...plus the clippers this weekend...hopefully 1 of the 4 perform does the euro spit out much for either clipper this weekend?. I'm pretty much considering them non factors until #3 comes along. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 I like the last one best as the vort goes to our south and it looks like a low develops to our south but having multiple chances to score is better than just one. I'm much less optimistic about the system that digs into the southwest than HM but I pretty much expressed my thoughts yesterday. I hope the southern stream energy lasts beyond the 14 or so as we should flip back to below normal again after our warm up. I haven't seen the new run but I understand the concerns. I wouldn't mind waiting for a fresh supply of cold and holding back the southern stuff until after it passes. The good news is that this doesn't look like last year at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Keep talking about this warm up...how warm is it supposed to get? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 CRAS paints a nice .1 strip through dc and burbs for tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 the day 8 event doesnt look great as of now...but it is more of a SWFE than a cutter so we never really torch... But then we have the upper low that will lift out of the southwest to help warm us up. I don't see that feature going south of us. The bulk of the ens members take it northeast and to our north. Once it gets by we can go cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Keep talking about this warm up...how warm is it supposed to get? You didn't read my article yesterday. for shame, for shame. Probably not a torch but it should get in the 50s or maybe even 60 one day ahead of the front associated with the southwest system if we are sunny. I don't see it being like our torch but being a warmer than normal period but not until we deal with our clipperfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 CRAS paints a nice .1 strip through dc and burbs for tomorrow night. Really hasnt been that bad of a model recently( at least relative to prior) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Keep talking about this warm up...how warm is it supposed to get? But then we have the upper low that will lift out of the southwest to help warm us up. I don't see that feature going south of us. The bulk of the ens members take it northeast and to our north. Once it gets by we can go cold again. Not saying it is right, but the entire run is cold except day 10 when we warm briefly with the weak lakes cutter before presumably getting cold again a day later....the problem with the day 9-10 threat is there is a low that goes to the lakes so we really have no chance even with a real southern stream though looks more promising than before..there is even a semblance of a low in the south...we probably hit 60 on day 11 before the front comes through (assuming a low goes to the lakes) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 You didn't read my article yesterday. for shame, for shame. Probably not a torch but it should get in the 50s or maybe even 60 one day ahead of the front associated with the southwest system if we are sunny. I don't see it being like our torch but being a warmer than normal period but not until we deal with our clipperfest. Thanks Wes, I admit it I didn't read it....work got in the way...promise I won't miss the next one when you talk about your call for PD3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 Not saying it is right, but the entire run is cold except day 10 when we warm briefly with the weak lakes cutter before presumably getting cold again a day later....the problem with the day 9-10 threat is there is a low that goes to the lakes so we really have no chance even with a real southern stream though looks more promising than before..there is even a semblance of a low in the south...we probably hit 60 on day 11 before the front comes through (assuming a low goes to the lakes) To me the low up towards the lakes on Friday would put that day above normal for temps though certainly not super warm. Mins may be above normal on Day 9. Days 10 and 11 probably would be above normal but the high off coast and easterly flow might make the maxes quite a bit cooler than the flow pattern would suggest. Course we also might hit 60 at 7Am again. Who really knows that far out. I'm surprised by the high pressure on the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 The ECMWF is very different with how it handles the polar vortex. It never really revolves the vortex southward, like the GFS. If the ECMWF is right with how the PV will behave, there definitely is no chance with the first Pacific low. We would have to wait for the front to go through, as Wes / Matt have stated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 To me the low up towards the lakes on Friday would put that day above normal for temps though certainly not super warm. Mins may be above normal on Day 9. Days 10 and 11 probably would be above normal but the high off coast and easterly flow might make the maxes quite a bit cooler than the flow pattern would suggest. Course we also might hit 60 at 7Am again. Who really knows that far out. I'm surprised by the high pressure on the euro. we are low 50s at 240 hours (12z Monday)...not sure how quikly the front comes through after that...There is some decent organization in the south with teh day 9 system....not sure of the effect...the primary still goes from the 4-corners to the lakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 we are low 50s at 240 hours (12z Monday)...not sure how quikly the front comes through after that...There is some decent organization in the south with teh day 9 system....not sure of the effect...the primary still goes from the 4-corners to the lakes What happened to the 7-8 day system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 What happened to the 7-8 day system? did I forget about that one?..it's there...marginal temps. euro has 6 threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 did I forget about that one?..it's there...marginal temps. euro has 6 threats Hopefully one of them will be more than a carduster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 1, 2013 Share Posted February 1, 2013 did I forget about that one?..it's there...marginal temps. euro has 6 threats in terms of potential here is how I would rank them 4 3 2 5 6/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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