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The jan 32 -Feb 0 storm thread


Ji

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I have been waiting to see one of 2 things for a while, either the wavelengths shorten allowing the northern stream to dig more, or the STJ to get a little more active.  Still no sign of number one happening, but finally there are hints that the STJ may be making a bit a noise into Feb.  This is supported by the MJO as we get towards phase 1 this is more supporting of southern wave activity.  Hopefully we can get at least a 10 days window for some real winter in early Feb.  At least we will not have to go through another "lets wait for the pattern reload" crap because this is realistically our last chance. 

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I have been waiting to see one of 2 things for a while, either the wavelengths shorten allowing the northern stream to dig more, or the STJ to get a little more active.  Still no sign of number one happening, but finally there are hints that the STJ may be making a bit a noise into Feb.  This is supported by the MJO as we get towards phase 1 this is more supporting of southern wave activity.  Hopefully we can get at least a 10 days window for some real winter in early Feb.  At least we will not have to go through another "lets wait for the pattern reload" crap because this is realistically our last chance

Why?

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because we are talking about the period from about Feb 1-15th.  After that once the cold relaxes it would be at least a week before we would get a reload and then we are into March.  Look at climo over the last 30 years for March in DC and you have your answer. 

 

if we time a return perfectly and get a perfect setup we might get snow through about feb 31

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I don't think anyone was banking on some beautiful setup this year. The low that the euro was showing is a nino look for all intents. And IF it happened it could drop a foot up and down the coast. I think chasing that setup is futile this year.

 

What we do have on the table is various amplified looks that could allow something to dive down further west than these 2 last cheezy events and pick up some gulf moisture. Thats kinda what I'm banking on. A ns vort that taps the gulf. Maybe 2 of them. A couple nice 3-5 / 4-8 events would prob be the best case scenario.

 

GFS is close enough in the lr. I know I keep saying this but it's true. SW features will not be picked up well at long leads anytime soon (or at all this winter). Let's just get the ec trough re-established and see what can drop into it. 

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Quite a bit of difference on guidance, even run-to-run, on the evolution of day 4-5.  I just don't buy the GFS (specifically 18Z GFS) of phasing things up and sending a blizzard through the plains.  We've seen the last week or two the cold overperforming and scrunching things back south as it gets into the 2-3 day range.

 

We dont want a full phase to occur- that will lead to PV-ogenesis in Canada and result in nothing but cold and dry over the east.  If the cold overperforms and things get stretched out and something is left behind in the SW, there is a pretty good chance of a threat around here next weekend. 

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