SouthCoastMA Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS now has the 2/6 storm going up OSUMets fanny. I'm still liking he prospects of this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I didn't think they looked bad. They still have a -NAO week 4. Weeklies have had a -nao all winter and there hasn't been one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS looks like a 200 post Messenger Special for 2/3....tries to get going, but really a bit too late except for SE MA. Does give the obligatory 1" to the rest of the region except far western areas. Maybe 1-3 for the Cape. The 2/3 event I think is a distinct possibility if and only if the weak disturbance at 90 hours does not explode off the Delmarva, a similar disturbance last week that brought some light snow to DCA and then rapidly exploded is what I think ruined the phasing of the 2 disturbances a couple of days later by flattening the flow. The models actually caught that idea pretty well at days 5-6, most runs that didn't have the big storm showed the previous wave blowing up. I think this time we may stand a better chance at the first system not deepening as the 500mb setup is not as conducive as last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm pulling for the 2/6 blizzard surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 I'm pulling for the 2/6 blizzard surprise. 78 anniversary special maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 78 anniversary special maybe The 2/6 system is where we are really missing the -NAO....like Feb '78. That would almost certianly be a very nice Miller B setup if we had one...but its tougher without it. It could end up as a stronger primary well NW trying to redevelop at the last second. With a nice little block in the Davis Straight, we'd probably have that whole thing pushed south with a big time coastal redeveloping off the Delmarva or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The 2/6 system is where we are really missing the -NAO....like Feb '78. That would almost certianly be a very nice Miller B setup if we had one...but its tougher without it. It could end up as a stronger primary well NW trying to redevelop at the last second. With a nice little block in the Davis Straight, we'd probably have that whole thing pushed south with a big time coastal redeveloping off the Delmarva or something. That nao the weeklies have been predicting all winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That nao the weeklies have been predicting all winter? They havent predicted them all winter. But the times they have, it hasn't verified very well except late December. Though that -NAO didn't help that much for most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS now has the 2/6 storm going up OSUMets fanny. I'm still liking he prospects of this one That would be pretty icy imo if that occurred. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 GFS looks like a 200 post Messenger Special for 2/3....tries to get going, but really a bit too late except for SE MA. Does give the obligatory 1" to the rest of the region except far western areas. Maybe 1-3 for the Cape.You're already ahead of me by about 35 posts on both 2/3 and 2/6. Two potentially epic events for this winter.1-3" would make it a top 2 or 3 event down here so I guess a few of the red taggers would finally be right about all that potential we keep hearing about. Congrats on the engagement, I figured it was either that or you guys were adopting ct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 You're already ahead of me by about 35 posts on both 2/3 and 2/6. Two potentially epic events for this winter. 1-3" would make it a top 2 or 3 event down here so I guess a few of the red taggers would finally be right about all that potential we keep hearing about. Congrats on the engagement, I figured it was either that or you guys were adopting ct. i think i got about an inch total tonite, esp after that 10 min moderate snow shower of huge fluffy dentrites moved thru around midnite. echos over me now, must be some frz dr /rain . 28f or so fun times on road in am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro is pretty awful for both events....we'll hope its wrong. Which this season, hasn't been much of a pipe dream at least. The 2/6 event isn't that bad, but its obsessed with developing the low really hard to the northwest before the secondary gets going despite the 5H trough looking pretty good. Basically another version of snake eyes this winter in a decent looking setup. But again, at least the Euro has been pretty mediocre in the medium range this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 i think i got about an inch total tonite, esp after that 10 min moderate snow shower of huge fluffy dentrites moved thru around midnite. echos over me now, must be some frz dr /rain . 28f or so fun times on road in am 32.2 here melting now. Sick both physically and after looking at 5-6 more days or snooze in the models. The only great news is Will, the range of ages and life's moments here is great. Grandparents to grandkids and everything in between. Congrats Will. As always this winter day 7 looks fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro is pretty awful for both events....we'll hope its wrong. Which this season, hasn't been much of a pipe dream at least. The 2/6 event isn't that bad, but its obsessed with developing the low really hard to the northwest before the secondary gets going despite the 5H trough looking pretty good. Basically another version of snake eyes this winter in a decent looking setup. But again, at least the Euro has been pretty mediocre in the medium range this year. too much ridging to the northeast? that's a monster Atlantic ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro is pretty awful for both events....we'll hope its wrong. Which this season, hasn't been much of a pipe dream at least. The 2/6 event isn't that bad, but its obsessed with developing the low really hard to the northwest before the secondary gets going despite the 5H trough looking pretty good. Basically another version of snake eyes this winter in a decent looking setup. But again, at least the Euro has been pretty mediocre in the medium range this year. Euro looks like its probably just messed up on 2/6. Note how it kind of looks like the gfs as it evolves? Almost like its missing some pieces. I think the gfs stronger primary is more likely with either it redeveloping under us or not. Can't see a weird euro weak setup they develops over us that ends up looking like an east coast front. Hopefully someone in euro land kept the changelog for the springs changes so they can undo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Euro looks like its probably just messed up on 2/6. Note how it kind of looks like the gfs as it evolves? Almost like its missing some pieces. I think the gfs stronger primary is more likely with either it redeveloping under us or not. Can't see a weird euro weak setup they develops over us that ends up looking like an east coast front. Hopefully someone in euro land kept the changelog for the springs changes so they can undo 2/6 has its problems...but there will likely be a system in there that gives us snow. I suppose it could develop really hard to the NW ad actually flip us to rain too. But we are sorely needing a NAO block in that setup. It has some pretty nice components except that. The Euro look overall is pretty ugly though IMHO. I like the GFS/GEFS look a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 2/6 has its problems...but there will likely be a system in there that gives us snow. I suppose it could develop really hard to the NW ad actually flip us to rain too. But we are sorely needing a NAO block in that setup. It has some pretty nice components except that. The Euro look overall is pretty ugly though IMHO. I like the GFS/GEFS look a lot better. KURO will not be pleased with that statement from KORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 2/6 has its problems...but there will likely be a system in there that gives us snow. I suppose it could develop really hard to the NW ad actually flip us to rain too. But we are sorely needing a NAO block in that setup. It has some pretty nice components except that. The Euro look overall is pretty ugly though IMHO. I like the GFS/GEFS look a lot better. Let's hope that the GFS is on to something. Its' accuracy is far better than the EURO at Medium Range. I'm hoping we can get several minor events to amount up to 10" for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 too much ridging to the northeast? that's a monster Atlantic ridge. The PV being due east of Hudson Bay is not very good looking. Its more like a Central Atlantic ridge centered due west of Portugal. That's typically a +NAO look.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Let's hope that the GFS is on to something. Its' accuracy is far better than the EURO at Medium Range. I'm hoping we can get several minor events to amount up to 10" for February. No it isn't...the Euro blows the GFS doors off in the medium range usually...but this winter its been almost 50/50. So that gives some hope the GFS is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 No it isn't...the Euro blows the GFS doors off in the medium range usually...but this winter its been almost 50/50. So that gives some hope the GFS is correct. That's what I meant. Usually the EURO is correct, but for this season, it hasn't done well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 The PV being due east of Hudson Bay is not very good looking. Its more like a Central Atlantic ridge centered due west of Portugal. That's typically a +NAO look.. yeah i mean im hoping the euro verifies...BUF would end futility in a big way Friday through Sunday lol. But we'll see how it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CardinalWinds Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 That's what I meant. Usually the EURO is correct, but for this season, it hasn't done well. Which begs the question...what happens first....the GFS going pay-per-view or the Euro going free to all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 you can tell there's a pattern change on the horizon...chaotic (and ugly) model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Sometimes it's hard to believe ..We went from everyone and I mean everyone feeling good about a pattern change,,felling great about Feb with cold and snow for weeks..and suddenly you wake up one morning in late Jan and it's all taken away. Unreal how things changed in 24 hours. Glad we got the snow that we did earlier this winter Even Noyes the biggest wx weenie of all has thrown in the towel t Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Tonight's 8-14 Day Forecast I aired on @NECN shows arctic cold retreating Feb 5-11: http://mnoy.es/Wy9b6w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Feb 3rd and Feb 5th both produce on the latest GFS. We toss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Sometimes it's hard to believe ..We went from everyone and I mean everyone feeling good about a pattern change,,felling great about Feb with cold and snow for weeks..and suddenly you wake up one morning in late Jan and it's all taken away. Unreal how things changed in 24 hours. Glad we got the snow that we did earlier this winter Even Noyes the biggest wx weenie of all has thrown in the towel t Noyes @MattNoyesNECN Tonight's 8-14 Day Forecast I aired on @NECN shows arctic cold retreating Feb 5-11: http://mnoy.es/Wy9b6w Not everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Kevin's organizing the lawn products now so he can be ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Blizz canceled the rest of winter? What the heck? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted January 29, 2013 Share Posted January 29, 2013 Blizz, you did see the GFS this morning? Most likely advisory/close to advisory snow on the 3rd and warning snows on the 5th-6th. It hasn't been great so far(the winter, not the model), but tossing winter at this point seems premature. -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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