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NNE Winter 2012-13 Thread III


klw

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Just peeking at Bufkit and then dove into the models a bit, but really nice rise/fall couplet signaled for Sunday. Could see some isallobaric wind gusts approaching 50 kt there if progs are right.

The old rule of thumb we used to use back at DVN was MSLP isobars across the state of Iowa (every 2mb) multiplied by 5 mph for potential wind gusts (I think I'm remembering that right). Across the GYX CWA an Iowa length area on Sunday we're looking at somewhere around 8 to 10 isobars based off the 06z GFS. That is right in the 40-50 mph range.

 

You're getting me all excited. 

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My forecast FTL...

 

I even played things in the southern half much warmer because of the threat of cirrus and was too cold.

 

It was close in some spots, I see HIE at -13 but BML 0. So just the difference in VRB05 and 00000 and you could make a run at some cold temps.

 

I had -8 when I left the house at 6:50, and the Zone 13 forecast was for -7; pretty close!  (Of course, my frost pocket location is generally 5-7F cooler than most of the surrounding area, so perhaps not so much consolation.)

 

Estcourt Station remains a cold pole, and I'm guessing Big Black dropped to around that same -30 by sunrise, after their -18 obs at midnight.

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Wouldn't be surprised to see that snow with the initial isentropic lift be real fluff. SREF are progging close to 200 mb deep DGZ, and with these cold temps in place that's believable. I wouldn't be shocked to see people pulling off 2" from a little over 0.05" melted.

 

Not surprising with this airmass

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BTV zone forecast for Lamoille County looks really nice for this weekend... robust.

 


Tonight: Mostly clear with a chance of snow until midnight...then cloudy with snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 6 above. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Saturday: Cloudy. Snow in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the upper 20s. Temperature falling to around 18 in the afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Much colder with lows around 7 below. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

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Missing this is going to kill me. Maybe I can luck out and pull off a little 1/2" refresher.

 

Max today was 17...Min 3.9.

 

I'm still not completely sold up here... thinking 2-3" of really fluffy snow is probably the best bet.  Jealous of northern VT on the International border... they could have a legit 6-8" out of this.

 

Man, if only this thing was like 50 miles further south.

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BTV zone forecast for Lamoille County looks really nice for this weekend... robust.

Tonight: Mostly clear with a chance of snow until midnight...then cloudy with snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows around 6 above. Light and variable winds. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Saturday: Cloudy. Snow in the morning...then a chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Total snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches. Highs in the lower 30s. Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Lows in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday: Snow showers likely. Light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the upper 20s. Temperature falling to around 18 in the afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow showers. Much colder with lows around 7 below. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph.

Nice.

My target for getting back out to ski has been to see that 7-day (post-thaw) total at Stowe hit the one foot mark.  It’s currently at 5” as of midday today, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we got there at some point during the long weekend based on that forecast.

18JAN13A.jpg

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Haven't been on here in a while and don't have time to read back through threads, but I finally found this Mt. Mansfield mesonet on BTV's site today. So sweet! Seems like they're really trying to dig deep into mountain forecasting more with this and the recent Froude Number study done by my buddy and recent LSC grad Mike Muccilli.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/profile/

 

 

PS- I like 3-6" from valleys upward by Sunday morning in northern VT, with an additional 1-3" possible Sunday and Sunday night. Not bad.

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Nice.

My target for getting back out to ski has been to see that 7-day (post-thaw) total at Stowe hit the one foot mark.  It’s currently at 5” as of midday today, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if we got there at some point during the long weekend based on that forecast.

 

 

Unfortunately we lost an inch on the 7-day total...so its back to only the 3-4" that's fallen in the last 72 hours.  Still, this could go either way in my mind... we could only end up with 2-3" on the southern end, or it keeps ticking south and we get a good upslope response on Sunday with the front, totaling 5-7" for the weekend.

 

18z GFS came south a bit again, and now has 0.25-0.5" QPF across the northern tier of VT.

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Haven't been on here in a while and don't have time to read back through threads, but I finally found this Mt. Mansfield mesonet on BTV's site today. So sweet! Seems like they're really trying to dig deep into mountain forecasting more with this and the recent Froude Number study done by my buddy and recent LSC grad Mike Muccilli.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/mountain/profile/

 

 

PS- I like 3-6" from valleys upward by Sunday morning in northern VT, with an additional 1-3" possible Sunday and Sunday night. Not bad.

 

 

Ed, Where have you been?

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Event totals: 1.6” Snow/0.10” L.E.

 

The snow on the board this morning seemed a lot more like synoptic snow than the previous couple of events – I found 1.6” of accumulation, just like at my 6:00 P.M. Thursday measurement, but this stack contained exactly twice the amount of liquid.  Not surprisingly, flakes have been fairly small in the 1-4 mm diameter range.  This event just pushed season snowfall past the 70” mark, so I did a quick assessment to see where things stand climatologically.  Snowfall is currently at 88.9% of average based on my data.  Picking up roughly a half foot of snowfall in the past few days has helped catch up a bit after the slow period, but season snowfall relative to average is still a bit down from where it was on December 31st when snowfall was at 109% of average.  It doesn’t look like this event is quite done yet though based on the radar:

 

19JAN13A.gif

 

Details from the 6:00 A.M. Waterbury observations:

 

New Snow: 1.6 inches

New Liquid: 0.10 inches

Snow/Water Ratio: 16.0

Snow Density: 6.3% H2O

Temperature: 19.8 F

Sky: Light Snow (1-4 mm flakes)

Snow at the stake: 6.5 inches

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It was snowing nicely here this morning....got an iPhone5 (my first smart phone) and this thing is amazing, haha.  Pics in real time to the internet?!

 

 

Tapered to flurries now with a solid 3" out of this first wave at the base of the mountain.  I see Morrisville is showing 3.0" and Hyde Park with 2.5", so my 2.0" at 5am in town is probably around 2.5" would be my guess.

 

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