H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Everyone, take a deep breath, we still have tomorrow's 12z and 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I may look like an idiot if we don't pull a retrograde miracale, but at least my December thoughts will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm extremely baffled at what to say at this point. The models are just plain horrendous, who the fook knows whats going to happen anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Data assimilation error? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I may look like an idiot if we don't pull a retrograde miracale, but at least my December thoughts will verify. How close is this to retrograding and hitting you guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yup, this is why I thought this was the type of storm to be very conservative in; the southern shortwave was always modeled as fairly weak, and the timing had to be so delicate in order to squeeze out a MECS threat from the synoptic pattern. Beautiful block on the Atlantic side but a progressive Pacific with a lack of STJ wins out most of the time in KU situations (NOT talking about ordinary SW flow and clippers where SNE and NNE does well in this -PNA/-NAO pattern.) I don't think this one had as much potential to trend north as 12/19 last year as that was much juicier, but I still got worried about my conservative forecast when the 12z ECM came out and began to think a MECS was a serious possibility. Always had a bad feeling though. I don't think this is over by a long shot despite the the Euro solution...the models have clearly been flip flopping in this setup as Wes and I discussed on the radio show. As much as you are obviously rooting for a whiff, we'll see what the weather actually has to say about it. I'm not in the camp of marrying any solution when we are seeing flips like this...otherwise it leads to poor forecasting verification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Retro.............here it comes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Data assimilation error? Fooking horrible models. I could stick my finger into the wind and be as accurate as the solutions presented day in and day out with this system. I really want to see what the fook the 500 maps look like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How close is this to retrograding and hitting you guys? Not sure, how large is the Pacific ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not sure, how large is the Pacific ocean What gives? These swings are redic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kbosch Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Very disappointing but, as usual, some of the cooler headed mets here win. It could be a huge hit, an OK one, or a whiff. It seems obvious that it is all on the table with the weird shifts we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What gives? These swings are redic. I need a retrograde or I look like a fool...even if that happens, I'm still not really right. Terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Data assimilation error? Depends. Are you a meteorologist? If not then you're wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I hate these Fukn retrograde scenarios.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Great consistency here run to run and etc. FWIW it would be funny if GGEM, CMC, and Euro all show consistency with the retro solution Btw, which site do u all use to follow the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Great consistency here run to run and etc. FWIW it would be funny if GGEM, CMC, and Euro all show consistency with the retro solution Btw, which site do u all use to follow the euro? Most hobbyists use SV, mets use WSI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I need a retrograde or I look like a fool...even if that happens, I'm still not really right. Terrible. I wouldn't count yourself out yet on your call. What the hell right? It's swung 16 times previously it will probably happen again. Ensembles should be hilarious. I told all my friends to expect a snowbowl and no school Monday. Fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Depends. Are you a meteorologist? If not then you're wrong. haha apparently meteorologists aren't always right my freaking avatar was me skiing, and my photo was me flying a plane...and I just got this. FROM A MET/MOD Sent 32 minutes ago I removed your avatar and your photo. That is completely inappropriate for this board. If you post something similar, your next step is permanent banning. LOLWTF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Retro is either happening, or it is going to be a 2010 style coc*tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't think this is over by a long shot despite the the Euro solution...the models have clearly been flip flopping in this setup as Wes and I discussed on the radio show. As much as you are obviously rooting for a whiff, we'll see what the weather actually has to say about it. I'm not in the camp of marrying any solution when we are seeing flips like this...otherwise it leads to poor forecasting verification. As easy it is to get upset here, and I'll admit I'm pretty damn upset but in reality like you said this probably isn't over by a long shot. The models are just having such a time handling the northern/southern stream shortwaves and how they interact with one another and having issues with how amplified things become in the southern stream. We've seen within the models that there definitely is potential for things to come together and despite the backward trends on the GFS/Euro they still continue to be rather close. One positive thing on the NAM's side was how negatively tilted the southern stream energy became...this is something to watch closely over the next few days...if we can get the energy to take on the negative tilt early enough that would be really beneficial in bringing this thing further west. While it would have been nice to see some consistency here given what we are looking at to get a hit you really can't expect the models to consistently show perfect phasing and perfect amplification run after run. Just a smidge difference in timing in something will throw the models off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 haha apparently meteorologists aren't always right my freaking avatar was me skiing, and my photo was me flying a plane...and I just got this. FROM A MET/MOD Sent 32 minutes ago I removed your avatar and your photo. That is completely inappropriate for this board. If you post something similar, your next step is permanent banning. LOLWTF? I agree with you.....that is nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Time to put that run to bed, speaking of which. Goodnight Tomorrow, tomorrow it's only a day away. Keeping the faith. A new set of solutions to look forward to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Retro is either happening, or it is going to be a 2010 style coc*tease. I fully expect my retro to downslope and leave me with seasonal mood flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 haha apparently meteorologists aren't always right my freaking avatar was me skiing, and my photo was me flying a plane...and I just got this. FROM A MET/MOD Sent 32 minutes ago I removed your avatar and your photo. That is completely inappropriate for this board. If you post something similar, your next step is permanent banning. LOLWTF? PM me the images. Maybe it was a misunderstanding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yay, downeast ME gets clobbered and we keep bare ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wouldn't be shocked if the truth is just in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Maine gets destroyed by the retrograde scenario...Ray is getting up into advisory snows by 120 hours, but not sure there would be much more after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I wouldn't be shocked if the truth is just in the middle Nothing would shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 PM me the images. Maybe it was a misunderstanding? He said "They were both pictures of urinating off the side of a deck." LOL. Why the hell would I ever post pictures of that? It was me skiing...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 haha apparently meteorologists aren't always right my freaking avatar was me skiing, and my photo was me flying a plane...and I just got this. FROM A MET/MOD Sent 32 minutes ago I removed your avatar and your photo. That is completely inappropriate for this board. If you post something similar, your next step is permanent banning. LOLWTF? Are you kidding me? They completely have ZERO clue of what your pic was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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