TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Bed, good night guys. What a rollercoaster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have to say these are the most dramatic shifts I personally have seen inside this range. I know people were alive for the older days of modeling but this is pretty much unprecedented for modern day as far as I am concerned. These aren't just run to run variations or flips, these are 300 mile shifts in solutions, and they aren't being caused by small differences aloft, there are 300+mile differences aloft, orientation changes, height changes, etc. It's really unreal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well I shall remain optimistic about the 6z/12z models. But I guess one thing this has taught us is that sometimes no one model is "king". It probably just depends entirely on the players involved, and how complex the scenerio is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have to say these are the most dramatic shifts I personally have seen inside this range. I know people were alive for the older days of modeling but this is pretty much unprecedented for modern day as far as I am concerned. These aren't just run to run variations or flips, these are 300 mile shifts in solutions, and they aren't being caused by small differences aloft, there are 300+mile differences aloft, orientation changes, height changes, etc. It's really unreal. What are your thoughts on the models and how they handle these negatively tilted troughs? I've noticed in the summer months at least with convection that when dealing with the timing issues of the fronts and shortwaves with negatively tilted troughs usually the models don't start handling the timing of everything much better until were inside about 48 hours...obviously in the winter things are much more dynamic are there are much more factors at play here but I feel that if there is poor handling of the geg. tilted trough that may be throwing things off timing wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 But its not a classic Miller A style storm....if you heard the radio show...its almost a pseudo miller B...the main player is the plains s/w diving in and the storm doesn't blossom until late. That is a favorable setup for New England. This might not bury eastern MA, but to say it cant because it doesn't bury Dobbs Ferry is a ridiculous statement. This can easily be a huge hit for eastern New England. I wouldn't favor a HECS right now....thats foolish in my book, but your "all or nothing" scenario for I-95 including E NE is pure crap IMHO. It just reeks of "if its not going to snow in my BY, it won't snow in Boston"....that is bad meteorology. This system has a lot of problems with it concerning moving parts....I'm leaning toward a moderate event too, but I don't find any reasoning of "all or nothing" very valid. It was foolish....but like I said earlier, no one is depending on me to forecast (thank god), so I'm gonna swing for the fences once in awhile. If I were you, though....I never would have jumped the gun like I did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have to say these are the most dramatic shifts I personally have seen inside this range. I know people were alive for the older days of modeling but this is pretty much unprecedented for modern day as far as I am concerned. These aren't just run to run variations or flips, these are 300 mile shifts in solutions, and they aren't being caused by small differences aloft, there are 300+mile differences aloft, orientation changes, height changes, etc. It's really unreal. I agree....was gonna post that earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I have to say these are the most dramatic shifts I personally have seen inside this range. I know people were alive for the older days of modeling but this is pretty much unprecedented for modern day as far as I am concerned. These aren't just run to run variations or flips, these are 300 mile shifts in solutions, and they aren't being caused by small differences aloft, there are 300+mile differences aloft, orientation changes, height changes, etc. It's really unreal. We've had terrible agreement on some storms the last few years but it was usually more one or two models consistently showing a hit while the others did not, or in some cases one model not agreeing until 36 hours out, but I'm not sure I can remember this much swinging going on....someone said 2 days ago they thought this could be a case similar to what happened in January 2000 where we may see a sudden swing inside 24 hours, given whats going on now I wouldn't be surprised....if you're expecting zero inches or 12 inches effective on your forecast Sunday morning I'd be more than ready for something crazy to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It was foolish....but like I said earlier, no one is depending on me to forecast (thank god), so I'm gonna swing for the fences once in awhile. If I were you, though....I never would have jumped the gun like I did. Well I never did...I knew that the models were struggling mightily with this pattern...even the vaunted Euro. I am still optimistic though...I think we still get a decent event. The longwave pattern still argues for a benchmark low, but we need a bit of help with the main s/w coming in from the pac nw. I think I would favor more of a scenario that is a low end warning criteria now. Which should be fine with most of us considering we havent seen crap yet outside of CT_blizz who has seen two MECS so far. I think we will use both our latitude and longitude to our advantage in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We've had terrible agreement on some storms the last few years but it was usually more one or two models consistently showing a hit while the others did not, or in some cases one model not agreeing until 36 hours out, but I'm not sure I can remember this much swinging going on....someone said 2 days ago they thought this could be a case similar to what happened in January 2000 where we may see a sudden swing inside 24 hours, given whats going on now I wouldn't be surprised....if you're expecting zero inches or 12 inches effective on your forecast Sunday morning I'd be more than ready for something crazy to happen. Yeah...I can't really remember something like this. Most of them were slow, painful trends...or one model fluctuating...etc. I am a little disappointed this was the result of the first run with the data sampled on the west coast but the northern stream shortwave still isn't sampled completely, so I guess we can grab a few straws and chuck em in the air until 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well I never did...I knew that the models were struggling mightily with this pattern...even the vaunted Euro. I am still optimistic though...I think we still get a decent event. The longwave pattern still argues for a benchmark low, but we need a bit of help with the main s/w coming in from the pac nw. I think I would favor more of a scenario that is a low end warning criteria now. Which should be fine with most of us considering we havent seen crap yet outside of CT_blizz who has seen two MECS so far. I think we will use both our latitude and longitude to our advantage in this setup. If I were you, I prob would have favored a mod event all along....but like I said, as a hobbyist, I can afford myself the luxury of going for that elusive "called shot" every so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well I never did...I knew that the models were struggling mightily with this pattern...even the vaunted Euro. I am still optimistic though...I think we still get a decent event. The longwave pattern still argues for a benchmark low, but we need a bit of help with the main s/w coming in from the pac nw. I think I would favor more of a scenario that is a low end warning criteria now. Which should be fine with most of us considering we havent seen crap yet outside of CT_blizz who has seen two MECS so far. I think we will use both our latitude and longitude to our advantage in this setup. I'm telling everyone to expect something similar to 12/27/04 or 2/18/04...basically eastern LI/RI and Cape events but I'm giving Boston a chance too because of the chance the low will retrograde.....NYC/western LI drew some blood on the 12/27/04 event because of a very strong upper level trough which swung through long after the low had lifted north of 42N as well as a semi-norlun trough which tried to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well...as far as I am concerned...I have waited so long for winter and we finally have a threat...I see no reason not to stay up for the 03z SREF's or 06z NAM. These late night threads are what winter is all about on the board, minus the outcome of every model tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm off to bed. At least the EURO can't devolve Adrian Gonzalez into an inverted trough....or retrograde Carl Crawford over to NY; no, it can't have that season....just this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm off to bed. At least the EURO can't devolve Adrian Gonzalez into an inverted trough; no, it can't have that season....just this one. Oh man, you are really setting yourself up here bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm telling everyone to expect something similar to 12/27/04 or 2/18/04...basically eastern LI/RI and Cape events but I'm giving Boston a chance too because of the chance the low will retrograde.....NYC/western LI drew some blood on the 12/27/04 event because of a very strong upper level trough which swung through long after the low had lifted north of 42N as well as a semi-norlun trough which tried to form. I wouldnt be surprised at a 12/26-27/04 result....that gave the Cape 20"+ but gave warning criteria back to where I am in ORH. Feb 2004 didn't do crap for us at all. I'm still pretty optimistic that we won't have to rely on the retrograde scenario...the models are obviously sturggling, and this might be a situation where we dont come into a good consensus until inside 48 hours....remember 2/26/10? That was horrible for NYC on most models except the GFS until we got inside 48-60 hours....its a weird pattern, with a monster block like back then, so I don't expect the models to handle it well. I would still like being in Boston right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well...as far as I am concerned...I have waited so long for winter and we finally have a threat...I see no reason not to stay up for the 03z SREF's or 06z NAM. These late night threads are what winter is all about on the board, minus the outcome of every model tonight. I agree.....the late night crew rocks....awesome chats. Hey, at least Ryan will have a nice meltdown of mine to wake up to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Oh man, you are really setting yourself up here bud. How so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I agree.....the late night crew rocks....awesome chats. Hey, at least Ryan will have a nice meltdown of mine to wake up to. It will be funny when Kevin discards the Euro in a few hours (after hugging it the last 24h). He will say how the NCEP models trended better and the Euro is having its usual "burp run" before a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It will be funny when Kevin discards the Euro in a few hours (after hugging it the last 24h). He will say how the NCEP models trended better and the Euro is having its usual "burp run" before a big storm. The chances of this happening go up about 450% if the NAM or GFS come northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm not really sure how I feel about this entire thing...something inside of me wants to believe we can still see major shifts, but I also think the chances are significantly lowered given the new data. I don't know...I can say this much; this is the most unsure I have ever been in this range and it's not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The chances of this happening go up about 450% if the NAM or GFS come northwest. I'm pretty bullish still despite the Euro...I'm not HECS bullish like Ray was, but I think most of eastern New England sees a decent event out of this. I won't be surprised if Boston comes in with 8"+. Still a ways to go, but I'm feeling good for the eastern areas...they have a lot of ways to make up for many sins as we mentioned on the radio show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm off to bed. At least the EURO can't devolve Adrian Gonzalez into an inverted trough....or retrograde Carl Crawford over to NY; no, it can't have that season....just this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 How so I have something but since it's not the banter thread I'll refrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm pretty bullish still despite the Euro...I'm not HECS bullish like Ray was, but I think most of eastern New England sees a decent event out of this. I won't be surprised if Boston comes in with 8"+. Still a ways to go, but I'm feeling good for the eastern areas...they have a lot of ways to make for many sins as we mentioned on the radio show. Yeah it wouldn't surprise me...I think Ray gets at least advisory criteria out of this. Most of my hopes are gone at this point. Needless to say it was a real let down. The excitement this afternoon when I was on the phone w/ a friend as the Euro came out was so awesome...those are moments you don't get too often; especially with the Euro's track record. Unbelievable deflation at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm pretty bullish still despite the Euro...I'm not HECS bullish like Ray was, but I think most of eastern New England sees a decent event out of this. I won't be surprised if Boston comes in with 8"+. Still a ways to go, but I'm feeling good for the eastern areas...they have a lot of ways to make for many sins as we mentioned on the radio show. Boston is the Orange County (NY) of the sea-level elevation world when it comes to winter storms, they regularly pull crazy things out of their ass.....the December 05 and February 03 event are two classic examples...I always feel good about Boston in most events as long as the low is not tracking too close to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I'm pretty bullish still despite the Euro...I'm not HECS bullish like Ray was, but I think most of eastern New England sees a decent event out of this. I won't be surprised if Boston comes in with 8"+. Still a ways to go, but I'm feeling good for the eastern areas...they have a lot of ways to make up for many sins as we mentioned on the radio show. ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ??? Imperfections in the setup...Boston and eastern areas (even back to my area frequently) can still get a good event despite not seeing everything come together perfectly....there's the "scraper" scenario like the NAM and then there's the retrograde scenario like the Euro and GGEM where they still cash in ok despite a disappointing initial miss. Boston's longitude can save them frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Imperfections in the setup...Boston and eastern areas (even back to my area frequently) can still get a good event despite not seeing everything come together perfectly....there's the "scraper" scenario like the NAM and then there's the retrograde scenario like the Euro and GGEM where they still cash in ok despite a disappointing initial miss. Boston's longitude can save them frequently. Ohhh I see what you are saying now...I completely mis-interpreted that. I thought you were saying they were making for getting screwed or something. Which I guess they did get pretty screwed last year, especially on 2/25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Someone just plowed into a car in front of my house. Didnt think I would be spending the last 30 minutes chasing a DD around in my car Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 We still have the JMA going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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