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December 19th-20 Storm Thread II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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CT Rain

CT Rain

Posted
Posted

I think we'll see the Euro come east... maybe by a decent bit tonight.

I think all the options are still on the table. A whiff is still possible as is a total clobbering. I could see models come back west by tomorrow night... wouldn't surprise me.

Such complex interactions going on it's going to be tough to figure this out until at least the 00z suite tomorrow.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

I think we'll see the Euro come east... maybe by a decent bit tonight.

I think all the options are still on the table. A whiff is still possible as is a total clobbering. I could see models come back west by tomorrow night... wouldn't surprise me.

Such complex interactions going on it's going to be tough to figure this out until at least the 00z suite tomorrow.

Yeah its gonna be a nightmare for the models...if the Euro keeps a big hit at 00z then I'll start getting a lot more bullish...right now though I'd favor a moderate snowstorm for the eastern half...for your area, I'd def favor at least a light event...like advisory...but it could be a lot bigger.

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weathafella

weathafella

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It can definitely snow out there at this time of year with SSTs; Martha's Vineyard started as snow in the 11/8 storm. As you say, you just want the low to pass further to the east so you get colder 850s and weaker easterly winds which could change you over. I think the heavy QPF runs are probably going to be mostly rain for you; there's no way Cape Cod could stay snow with the scenario the GFS shows despite the dynamics of the CCB.

Yup people are posting these QPF maps to contradict me but a lot of that stuff comes from a Norlun-like feature around 120 and we know how those go. Also, a lot of frames of light QPF usually doesn't add up to much in lower elevations as you say.

Nate, you're wrong plain and simple. You don't live here nor know the climo. The majority of the snow comes from the initial 0.75 or so prior to any inverted trof. With a closed H5 low south of our region spinning around, this solution is quite plausible and it has happened numerous times.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Yeah its gonna be a nightmare for the models...if the Euro keeps a big hit at 00z then I'll start getting a lot more bullish...right now though I'd favor a moderate snowstorm for the eastern half...for your area, I'd def favor at least a light event...like advisory...but it could be a lot bigger.

I'm thinking a little shy of 50/50 for a 6"+ event here. Maybe that's a hair on the bullish side but I could see this pulling west a bit.

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
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It can definitely snow out there at this time of year with SSTs; Martha's Vineyard started as snow in the 11/8 storm. As you say, you just want the low to pass further to the east so you get colder 850s and weaker easterly winds which could change you over. I think the heavy QPF runs are probably going to be mostly rain for you; there's no way Cape Cod could stay snow with the scenario the GFS shows despite the dynamics of the CCB.

Yup people are posting these QPF maps to contradict me but a lot of that stuff comes from a Norlun-like feature around 120 and we know how those go. Also, a lot of frames of light QPF usually doesn't add up to much in lower elevations as you say.

It's awfully early. We have only one "trend" this year which is that when it is cold storms have a hard time coming our way. This won't be fresh cold air by the time this storm is coming which is probably good.

The GFS tonight is a pretty good hit in eastern areas which is probably a good bet and why guys like Harv think Boston is in the line of fire.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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It's awfully early. We have only one "trend" this year which is that when it is cold storms have a hard time coming our way. This won't be fresh cold air by the time this storm is coming which is probably good.

The GFS tonight is a pretty good hit in eastern areas which is probably a good bet and why guys like Harv think Boston is in the line of fire.

I'd definitely feel good if I was in Boston right now.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Posted

Oh no.

The truth is it may do the crazy uncle thing like 12Z. At 72 hours the trof is going neg and the low is trying to get captured. 12Z it was way east at 96 hours and then came around between will in northern ME's legs and retrograded in for a hit. So I wouldn't oh no because I'm not sure it's much different.

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Stevo6899

Stevo6899

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I will say with the last midwest storm, the euro was the first and only model right all along with a more northerly solution, but the canadian ggem was right on the money once it recognized the energy. It was more precise than the euro was 3-4 days out. The canadian inside 72 hours has been the most accurate this year IMO.

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nzucker

nzucker

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Nate, you're wrong plain and simple. You don't live here nor know the climo. The majority of the snow comes from the initial 0.75 or so prior to any inverted trof. With a closed H5 low south of our region spinning around, this solution is quite plausible and it has happened numerous times.

This has nothing to do with knowing the climo...it's about understanding that this is a "thread the needle" situation for most people, maybe not quite as much in Eastern New England where there is more time for the retrograde to occur but still a fragile situation too. I said it was a moderate event for Eastern New England anyway verbatim on the 0z GFS, but there's definitely been a trend towards less amplification with the 0z NAM/GFS coming in flatter than 12z and the UKMET and RGEM not even close to a hit. Obviously the mighty EURO has not spoken yet and that will determine many of my feelings about this storm, but I just have a hunch this is more of a scraper. Not even sure exactly why I feel this way, but you could see it last night in the way I protested when Andrew was so convinced the EURO had verified his forecast by moving west. And yes, Jerry, this is rain for Cape Cod....the model shows temps in the 40s and there's a good reason for it.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted

This has nothing to do with knowing the climo...it's about understanding that this is a "thread the needle" situation for most people, maybe not quite as much in Eastern New England where there is more time for the retrograde to occur but still a fragile situation too. I said it was a moderate event for Eastern New England anyway verbatim on the 0z GFS, but there's definitely been a trend towards less amplification with the 0z NAM/GFS coming in flatter than 12z and the UKMET and RGEM not even close to a hit. Obviously the mighty EURO has not spoken yet and that will determine many of my feelings about this storm, but I just have a hunch this is more of a scraper. Not even sure exactly why I feel this way, but you could see it last night in the way I protested when Andrew was so convinced the EURO had verified his forecast by moving west. And yes, Jerry, this is rain for Cape Cod....the model shows temps in the 40s and there's a good reason for it.

Jesus, kid, you need to take a step back and take a TO.....you have grown simply nauseating......Will along with other mets have said that the GFS is probably a plastering for the cape.

Is it close, of course, its CC and it's December.

No doubt thos 2m temps are warm.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

This has nothing to do with knowing the climo...it's about understanding that this is a "thread the needle" situation for most people, maybe not quite as much in Eastern New England where there is more time for the retrograde to occur but still a fragile situation too. I said it was a moderate event for Eastern New England anyway verbatim on the 0z GFS, but there's definitely been a trend towards less amplification with the 0z NAM/GFS coming in flatter than 12z and the UKMET and RGEM not even close to a hit. Obviously the mighty EURO has not spoken yet and that will determine many of my feelings about this storm, but I just have a hunch this is more of a scraper. Not even sure exactly why I feel this way, but you could see it last night in the way I protested when Andrew was so convinced the EURO had verified his forecast by moving west. And yes, Jerry, this is rain for Cape Cod....the model shows temps in the 40s and there's a good reason for it.

But most people on this bb LIVE in eastern NE. The Cape may rain. But land areas that sustain winds on or left of 040 will be fine. BOS will get 6-12 I bet.

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snowNH

snowNH

Posted
Posted

Some people on henry M's facebook blog are posting the ggem and euro an hour or two before they usual come out. Maybe they pay for them to come in advance or maybe they arent real. The canadian is OTS and the euro looks good. At hour 84 its well west of the gfs at 84

Lol.. euro is not out til 1

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