40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Take a look at what I posted. It's very close to a major shellacking. The low is up by Eastport, ME....it blows imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Another crazy uncle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Ray gets his New Years 2010 12" on the GGEM...what a retrograde mess that is...it totall bombs the low and brings it back toward the coast after the initial whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Flurries for Eastern Mass, verbatim. It's like 200 miles east of the benchmark! These models are off the charts inconsistent. Run the entire run. That low is not going away easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow, 00z GGEM is just a tad too late with the H5 closing off. I mean the storm's low goes to town with a 961mb low just a tad too far ne. This is so close to being in the epic level, at least for Eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 honestly what do you guys expect to see from the ECM? I'm expecting it to either stay the course with it's 12z run or move slightly east. I just can't imagine the Euro could have biffed two runs so easily and now will trend to an OTS solution. I really thought it was locking on at 12z today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What I am wondering right now.....these seem like large jumps and inconsistencies in modeling, but it is fact that since this is such an intricate phase of multiple vorticies that the slightest nuance in the timing of everything could have dramatic implications, so perhaps what appear to be drastic changes with regard to sensible wx are not really that dramatic meteorologically speaking. The EURO with it's superior resoloution is no longer prone to these subtleties at this range; am I right....I let you know in a bit over an hr. Gotta grab a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Take a look at what I posted. It's very close to a major shellacking. Sold! I'll take that anyday and twice on Sunday. In this timeframe? Guts to remember these are tools. Atleast another 5 runs to iron-out details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Wow, 00z GGEM is just a tad too late with the H5 closing off. I mean the storm's low goes to town with a 961mb low just a tad too far ne. This is so close to being in the epic level, at least for Eastern New England. What I am wondering right now.....these seem like large jumps and inconsistencies in modeling, but it is fact that since this is such an intricate phase of multiple vorticies that the slightest nuance in the timing of everything could have dramatic implications, so perhaps what appear to be drastic changes with regard to sensible wx are not really that dramatic meteorologically speaking. The EURO with it's superior resoloution is no longer prone to these subtleties at this range; am I right....I let you know in a bit over an hr. Gotta grab a shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 The low is up by Eastport, ME....it blows imo. Look at 12 hours later. I don't think it's right but the signal is this probably DOES NOT whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 honestly what do you guys expect to see from the ECM? I'm expecting it to either stay the course with it's 12z run or move slightly east. I just can't imagine the Euro could have biffed two runs so easily and now will trend to an OTS solution. I really thought it was locking on at 12z today... Well the 00z and 12z Euro runs didnt exactly agree...the 12z run was considerably west of the 00z run...they both had big hits for parts of SNE...the 12z focused on the western 2/3rds of SNE while the 00z focused on the eastern 1/3rd...or 1/2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not that anyone cares right now, but the GFS is damn cold in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 honestly what do you guys expect to see from the ECM? I'm expecting it to either stay the course with it's 12z run or move slightly east. I just can't imagine the Euro could have biffed two runs so easily and now will trend to an OTS solution. I really thought it was locking on at 12z today... I think it will look like the 00z run.....maybe a bit further west, but east of 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Not that anyone cares right now, but the GFS is damn cold in the LR. I care since I'll have snowpack to preserve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 LOL CMC...It tries to whiff and gives all of NE plenty of qpf in the end. The models want to do this and the signal has been there for a week. I am skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Well the 00z and 12z Euro runs didnt exactly agree...the 12z run was considerably west of the 00z run...they both had big hits for parts of SNE...the 12z focused on the western 2/3rds of SNE while the 00z focused on the eastern 1/3rd...or 1/2. ..exactly. I'm just saying, with the euro's known accuracy especially within the shorter range like this, I can't imagine that after two successive runs of trending more west that it would just jump ship and whiff NE now. I mean, we'll see in an hour obviously but that's my tentative thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 ..exactly. I'm just saying, with the euro's known accuracy especially within the shorter range like this, I can't imagine that after two successive runs of trending more west that it would just jump ship and whiff NE now. I mean, we'll see in an hour obviously but that's my tentative thought. I don't expect it to whiff. I expect it to go east a bit, but not a whiff. I thought earlier today when it happened (and still do) that it over trended at 12z (despite it giving me a jackpot over like 2 feet). So I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back east...in fact I would be surprised if it stayed where it was at 12z or even went west of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 At least for my location, since about 2:30pm the entire thing has had the general feel of one of those slowly deflating balloons that omits a high pitched squeal that slowly gets lower and lower with time until the entire thing just falls to a ground like a heaping mess of garbage. That's what happens when you rapidly inflate a balloon like the Euro. A lot of potential for deflating lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Look at 12 hours later. I don't think it's right but the signal is this probably DOES NOT whiff. I took a look at the 84 Hour panel and figured it was OTS, Didn't expect that clown retrograde solution. I'd still prefer the 0z GFS over this though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I care since I'll have snowpack to preserve. Best of luck to you Ray. Post lots of heavy heavy pics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't expect it to whiff. I expect it to go east a bit, but not a whiff. I thought earlier today when it happened (and still do) that it over trended at 12z (despite it giving me a jackpot over like 2 feet). So I wouldn't be surprised to see it come back east...in fact I would be surprised if it stayed where it was at 12z or even went west of that. yeah, I think it showed well over a foot here also. Snow ratios also would have been slightly better here most likely. I just want to believe it started locking onto a solution by 12z. i guess there may be some kind of wishful thinking thrown in there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I took a look at the 84 Hour panel and figured it was OTS, Didn't expect that clown retrograde solution. I'd still prefer the 0z GFS over this though The retrograde type deal has been shown on most models actually....even the Euro...it brings back another round from the north and northeast late in the game...I don't think a retrograde solution would be that outlandish at it seems right now if this thing whiffed initially....we saw the 12z Ukie do this too...it hammered eastern areas after the initial whiff. I wouldn't feel confident about it right now, but I do think there is definite potential for additional snows (or the only snows if its initially a whiff) from retrograde setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yeah, I think it showed well over a foot here also. Snow ratios also would have been slightly better here most likely. I just want to believe it started locking onto a solution by 12z. i guess there may be some kind of wishful thinking thrown in there... Snowstorms in Llitchfield County? Blasphemy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Snowstorms in Llitchfield County? Blasphemy! yeah lately huh? I had just over 20" last winter...yikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I took a look at the 84 Hour panel and figured it was OTS, Didn't expect that clown retrograde solution. I'd still prefer the 0z GFS over this though Huge lesson learned, just like the NAM, that storm is not over then either, right minds telling us capture, where when?? My take is the Euro stalls at the BM loops SW then out NNE at 980 ish with copious QPF for. Eastern 2/3 NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Huge lesson learned, just like the NAM, that storm is not over then either, right minds telling us capture, where when?? My take is the Euro stalls at the BM loops SW then out NNE at 980 ish with copious QPF for. Eastern 2/3 NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCPSUSuperstorm2010 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Will, how close is the 00z GGEM in becoming an epic snowstorm for eastern SNE? I mean a 961mb just a tad to the northeast, that is quite the storm. Would an intensity of this surprise you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I"m out. Good luck everybody.....rooting on the Euro....will review at 6AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 yeah lately huh? I had just over 20" last winter...yikes. Damn really? I got 36" I thought that was bad. I think Litchfield County has been arguably the biggest screw zone over the past year. I know the CT River Valley has done as bad or a little worse, but relative to averages, Litchfield County has been the biggest snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Damn really? I got 36" I thought that was bad. I think Litchfield County has been arguably the biggest screw zone over the past year. I know the CT River Valley has done as bad or a little worse, but relative to averages, Litchfield County has been the biggest snow hole. we had an 8 inch storm and then a few 2-4 inchers here and there...I think my average is somewhere up near 60. We got missed on all sides lol if this one whiffs it'll really just continue the trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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