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December 26-27 Winter Storm Part 2


Hoosier

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It's subtle, but it's going to do the trick up here just like with the NAM.

All in all, around 0.66-0.80 qpf in the area. Similar to the Euro, slightly drier but its around 6-8/9 inches around their, which is probably the most common set of numbers on most of the models. 0z runs are what i'm more interested in.

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All in all, around 0.66-0.80 qpf in the area. Similar to the Euro, slightly drier but its around 6-8/9 inches around their, which is probably the most common set of numbers on most of the models. 0z runs are what i'm more interested in.

I wouldn't worry about the QPF verbatim. Overall this run of the GFS was drier in general, but the positioning of some key features improved a good deal. Yeah, 0z is huge. Again, we're seeing a lot of blips so far with the models. Gotta see if we can establish a trend.

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Hey blackrock. The last 4 years at Muskegon - 148", 74", 94", 56". Sorry but I'm not crying in my beer for you.

http://www.americanw...mplaint-thread/

Going by AVERAGES the only above normal one was 08-09 and well he was not living there back then. I believe 98" is the average there? I am surprised at the total for 2010-11though? I know that area did great with the blizzard ( GHD ) but don't recall much else?

Considering his averages many would be crying worse if they had half their normal climo snowfall followed up by what has happened so far this winter there. Normal Dec snowfall there is 28.3" and for Nov it is 6.0! How much has fallen there? 5.3" i do believe is the total to date.. But yeah the complaint thread would be better suited for the complaining. :)

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It's subtle, but it's going to do the trick up here just like with the NAM.

Looks like it held onto the primary slightly longer. Good run for you.

Writing seems to be on the wall here, as I watch every model run tick southeast...and more places to my southwest/west get eliminated from contention. Still holding on by the slimmest of margins, at the moment...

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I wouldn't worry about the QPF verbatim. Overall this run of the GFS was drier in general, but the positioning of some key features improved a good deal. Yeah, 0z is huge. Again, we're seeing a lot of blips so far with the models. Gotta see if we can establish a trend.

Yeah, the track and phasing is key, most important of all. QPF is more of a short term and observations sort of thing esp with deformation bands. 0z will be crucial as it will be fully sampled by then.

But like you said, it was an improvement compared to the 12z NAM/GFS runs.

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Wow, GFS is skimpy for much of this region compared to the NAM. I get a feeling a compromise of QPF/snowfall amounts would be best, maybe slightly closer to the GFS.

The NAM is usually generous! You know that!

Looks like Alek is on the borderline for an inch per the 18z GFS.

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Looks like I only need a 50 mile shift to the south and Louisville could be in for a good snowfall. Somebody in the Louisville viewing area is going to get screwed with rain and 33 degrees. Either way, I think Louisville gets at least 2-3 inches of snow, maybe more. But, I'm going to hold my breath on that one.

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Curious to hear from a local met :). Whats your worst and best case scenario calls for DTW right now?

For DTW, worst case 2.5-3" best case the low doesn't transfer til late and we get enhancement off the lakes and end up with 8-12" personally right now is go 4-8" across the metro area. Best to the SE worst to the NW

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Going by AVERAGES the only above normal one was 08-09 and well he was not living there back then. I believe 98" is the average there? I am surprised at the total for 2010-11though? I know that area did great with the blizzard ( GHD ) but don't recall much else?

Considering his averages many would be crying worse if they had half their normal climo snowfall followed up by what has happened so far this winter there. Normal Dec snowfall there is 28.3" and for Nov it is 6.0! How much has fallen there? 5.3" i do believe is the total to date.. But yeah the complaint thread would be better suited for the complaining. :)

Thanks, Harry. You are spot on in what you said. Apologies for irritating some of you. It comes from disappointment...something we have all experienced. (that, and I am laying on my back with the flu and nothing better to do) Have a great evening!

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