weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 For DTW, worst case 2.5-3" best case the low doesn't transfer til late and we get enhancement off the lakes and end up with 8-12" personally right now is go 4-8" across the metro area. Best to the SE worst to the NW I was personally gonna go with a NAM/GFS blend, and say 6-10" for DTW. I might still stick with it if the NAM doesn't back off tonight, but even the 15z SREF members are all over the place, so I'm not sure where to go with this. 4-8" sounds very reasonable at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Merry Christmas y'all cant wait to see the pictures flowing in the next 2 days, will take my share here in SE Illinois.... best snow in at least 2 years here more than likely... early guess here would be in the 5-10" range, leaning on the upper side of that scale here, missing the best snows just to my east towards the Indiana border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The idea of storms in the warm sector stealing moisture from the cold side of the low is interesting to me. Has anyone tried to quantify this phenomenon in a case study or otherwise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Although the heaviest snow now appears that it will occur SE of me, I'm enjoying following this and appreciate all of the posts from the many knowledgeable posters for this "Boxing Day storm" (in honor of SSC and crew). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The idea of storms in the warm sector stealing moisture from the cold side of the low is interesting to me. Has anyone tried to quantify this phenomenon in a case study or otherwise? I'd be curious to this as well. I hear people talk about it all the time but haven't really seen it happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The idea of storms in the warm sector stealing moisture from the cold side of the low is interesting to me. Has anyone tried to quantify this phenomenon in a case study or otherwise? I inquired about this earlier in the thread, but got no response. I've read of anecdotal evidence, but have seen no case studies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The idea of storms in the warm sector stealing moisture from the cold side of the low is interesting to me. Has anyone tried to quantify this phenomenon in a case study or otherwise? As a layperson I can't give you specifics but I have read that there have been studies done on this very thing regarding precip totals and geographical orientation of svr weather impacts upon snow in the colder sector farther north. Hopefully someone on the board with more knowledge can chime in with some specifics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM is going to be juiced up...not surprising....HA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Precip looks to be further south in ok and ark through 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM definitely further south this go around..To start anyways. Passes over Houston just about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 OK whoever in the SE that has the Magnet needs to shut it off now yep it looks more South again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Also.. if you thought the 12z and 18z was moisture filled, this one is going to the extreme.. looks even wetter than before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Stronger and maybe a hair west in LA through 27hr but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's further south initially because the s/w trough is more amplified...however downstream confluence/blocking is less compared to 18Z thus far and heights are thus building a little more. I expect a more significant poleward tug soon before the transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's further south initially because the s/w trough is more amplified...however downstream confluence/blocking is less compared to 18Z thus far and heights are thus building a little more. I expect a more significant poleward tug soon before the transfer. I think it's going to end up similar to the 18Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Man really juiced, stronger 850mb low at 30hr, 50kt southeasterly flow into the cylcone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 It's further south initially because the s/w trough is more amplified...however downstream confluence/blocking is less compared to 18Z thus far and heights are thus building a little more. I expect a more significant poleward tug soon before the transfer. So far not happening. Thus the tug north. Compared to 6hrs ago it is still further se. See what happens but i have my doubt.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Might miss us all the way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 996 at hour 30 then 1000 at 36. Interesting run already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 So far not happening. Thus the tug north. Compared to 6hrs ago it is still further se. See what happens but i have my doubt.. Yep, this will be SE for sure... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Hope this NAM run verifies for BEAU. Being in the deform band in KY doesn't happen often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 if this verifies you may hear me cursing loudly.... now I HAVE to have a NW trend or else I may miss out COMPLETELY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 OUCH! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Punt. What a terrible hobby. Good luck to all still involved. Hope it pours snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Nice hit for us here in Southern indiana...I will believe it when I see it. (Although I am growing more confident) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Congrats for those along the river, Ohio, and the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Secondary starts developing at hour 42....That first low needs to stay stronger....not really sure about tonights Nam, the low placement (secondary).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Punt. What a terrible hobby. Good luck to all still involved. Hope it pours snow. We'll get some snow, that shouldn't be of concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Well it is the NAM ... but all of the Ohio weenies just opened their first present! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Needless to say i absolutely love this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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