LanceJA91 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Current obs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm sitting close to Dayton, OH and the meteorologists here have been saying 3-5 inches. and if reality plays out they'll be dead wrong, and we'll see 3x that amount with these new model trends coming into alignment. 12+ inches ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 P.S.Wasn't the Ukie calling for this last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 P.S.Wasn't the Ukie calling for this last night? The UKIE has been lost for the whole system. Playing catch up. I dont believe it 'called' anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 The WRF we run at Purdue is similar to this, maybe shifted southeast another 30-50 with the NW edge of the precip. It's been showing this for its last 3 runs (last 36 hours). It's initialized from the NAM, so it has the massive QPF too. I haven't been paying attention to it because it was such a outlier, but now it could have picked up on the SE trend early. What kind of a track record does the Purdue WRF have? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM was an outlier north with the last storm in its useless range. Do yourselves a huge favor and never let that model get your hopes up to much and we wouldn't have 5 pages of deflated weenies. EURO with some GFS has been the way to go. delicate storm like the last one and they are no fun when you're on the edges.. Good luck all and have a Merry Christmas. I agree and even said last night that the Nam was not to be believed...early on at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah wow Detroit and Toronto now risk losing those bigger totals entirely if the trend persists. EURO keeps the books open on this system. Besides the NAM, it's the wettest model out there. I threw out 2-4/3-5 assuming the EURO in about half an hour will finally capitulate. If it doesn't, a small window of opportunity will remain open for more fulsome amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Models overdoing the blocking and convection. Geee what a shock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 I'm sitting close to Dayton, OH and the meteorologists here have been saying 3-5 inches. and if reality plays out they'll be dead wrong, and we'll see 3x that amount with these new model trends coming into alignment. 12+ inches ? They seem to be going by what NWS ILN is saying right now. They did say adjustments might be necessary if things shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What kind of a track record does the Purdue WRF have? Not sure about the Purdue WRF but both IWX's and STL's usually are pretty reliable... I remember not liking what I saw from them a lot last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JayPSU Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 They seem to be going by what NWS ILN is saying right now. They did say adjustments might be necessary if things shift. Just curious, is your avatar from the March 2008 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 The UKIE has been lost for the whole system. Playing catch up. I dont believe it 'called' anything. Someone said last night that the Ukie was way far SE. I dunno... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM still has the crazy amounts, it just doesn't know where to put em. The magnitude/coverage is probably overdone but very possible there could be narrow bands of pretty high totals given potential tstorms/banded precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fickle Heights Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 What kind of a track record does the Purdue WRF have? Pretty good overall, but it's been off on its own recently. I've been using it mainly for freezing fog and frost forecasting. It picked up on the SE trend at this time yesterday, but I don't know exactly why it did that. It actually shifted a little bit NW on its 0z run. http://wxp.eas.purdue.edu/wrfdata/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 NAM still has the crazy amounts, it just doesn't know where to put em. The magnitude/coverage is probably overdone but very possible there could be narrow bands of pretty high totals given potential tstorms/banded precip. I LIKE where it's putting them now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 They seem to be going by what NWS ILN is saying right now. They did say adjustments might be necessary if things shift. Ya, my guess is that adjustments to totals around here will change throughout the day tomorrow and the Winter Storm Warnings will be issued south 100 miles of the original watches. It will also be interesting to see how the winds wind up this thing. Could flurt with blizzard conditions for a time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 999mb on surface obs. If I'm not mistaken, it looks stronger than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Just curious, is your avatar from the March 2008 storm? I honestly don't remember what storm that was but it wasn't that one because we had blizzard warnings with that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 999mb on surface obs. If I'm not mistaken, it looks stronger than modeled. You are correct Sir! Only supposed to be 1006 to 1004. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 999mb on surface obs. If I'm not mistaken, it looks stronger than modeled. something to keep an eye on, wasn't supposed to get into the 990's until midnight.... tomorrow as it starts to go neg-tilt. also maybe just a bit North of model guidance as well maybe? not much but little differences now could make larger ones down the road Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 You are correct Sir! Only supposed to be 1006 to 1004. As a friend on Facebook was just wondering, would that possibly mean it comes further NW? If that's the case, then I think we need to put less weight on the more southeast solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LanceJA91 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 something to keep an eye on, wasn't supposed to get into the 990's until midnight.... tomorrow as it starts to go neg-tilt. also maybe just a bit North of model guidance as well maybe? not much but little differences now could make larger ones down the road Looking at that blocking high up in Canada is it weaker and north of what model suggest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 As a friend on Facebook was just wondering, would that possibly mean it comes further NW? If that's the case, then I think we need to put less weight on the more southeast solutions. :axe: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 As a friend on Facebook was just wondering, would that possibly mean it comes further NW? If that's the case, then I think we need to put less weight on the more southeast solutions. it's POSSIBLE, but way way too soon to tell, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 :axe: Um? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 something to keep an eye on, wasn't supposed to get into the 990's until midnight.... tomorrow as it starts to go neg-tilt. also maybe just a bit North of model guidance as well maybe? not much but little differences now could make larger ones down the road Yeah, watch it go back NW. I would be upset but not surprised in the least.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 25, 2012 Author Share Posted December 25, 2012 Low definitely looks a bit deeper than progged. Agree that it might not mean much at this point but will be interesting to see if it stays that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 8 minutes in. Anybody have any news on the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, watch it go back NW. I would be upset but not surprised in the least.... Or could it still follow the same path it's progged to now but just be a little deeper, thus more wind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jhamps10 Posted December 25, 2012 Share Posted December 25, 2012 Yeah, watch it go back NW. I would be upset but not surprised in the least.... I don't think we'll see large shifts in any direction from here really, but a county or 2 either way not out of the question still IMO. Frankly personally I'd take a tiny shift NW for more buffer room, I'd gladly take 15-20 miles even with how sharp the NW gradient is in this system, Haven't seen one pregged that sharp since.. well the last storm to blast Paducah and Evansville in 2004, I was on the lucky end that storm, hopefully I can get lucky again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.